DraftKings/Streamer Pitcher Rankings for Monday, June 1

Below you’ll find my DraftKings and streamer rankings for Monday, June 1. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the salary and where the game is being played.

Must Starts

Felix Hernandez: $11,600, NYY

Hernandez is the best pitcher on Monday, but I’m not entirely convinced he should be picked because of how many good pitchers are pitching. Hernandez obviously provides stability and safety, but his salary is nearly $2,000more than deGrom, my second ranked pitcher. The Yankees don’t strikeout out a lot against righties (19.5 percent) so there isn’t as much upside as you may think with this matchup.

Jacob deGrom: $9,700, @SD & Gerrit Cole: $9,900, @SF

The Padres are tied for the league lead in home runs allowed, which is strange considering of how much of a pitchers park they play in. I give Jacob deGrom the slight edge over Gerrit Cole because the Padres strikeout much more than the Giants do. Against righties the Padres are striking out 21.5 percent of the time compared 17.5 percent for the Giants. The downside with deGrom is you may only 2-3 strikeouts (he’s done this twice this year) while with Cole you can bank at least five strikeouts. Lastly, the Giants offense has been better against right handed pitching as the Giants have a .321 wOBA while the Padres are .291.

Almost Must Starts

Jason Hammel: $7,800, @MIA

Hammel may be the best value of the day. For the year he only has seven walks to go along with 58 strikeouts. He’s facing a Marlins offense that’s 27th in the majors in wOBA against righties and in a very pitcher friendly ballpark. In nine starts this year he’s had less than five strikeouts once, which means he should be a shoe-in for at least 20-25 points.

Michael Pineda: $8,800, @SEA

The reason why Pineda is not in the Must Start class is because of a limited track record and he’s allowed four and five earned runs in two of his past three starts. A part of the reason why he allowed so many runs was in-part due to a .339 BABIP in those three starts. Of the pitchers in this class I like Pineda almost as much as Jason Hammel because of the underlying peripherals (walk and strikeout rates), the ballpark and the mediocrity of the Mariners lineup. Hammel gets the edge because he’s pitching in the NL.

Garrett Richards: $9,500, TB

Richards has pitched very well this season, but he hasn’t been as good as last season. The strikeout rate is more than four percentage points less and the walk rate is more than two percentage points higher. Despite the lack of household names the Rays offense has been slightly below average in wOBA for the season (18th for the season). My hunch is those numbers are inflated by the poor pitching of the AL East because when I look at the Rays lineup I have to think Richards should be able to overpower the entire lineup except for Evan Longoria.

Andrew Cashner: $8,000, NYM

Since 2013 Cashner has made 55 starts and he’s only had 10 or more strikeouts only twice; 9 or more strikeouts three times. Therefore, the odds of him putting up a 40 point game are low. However, the Mets have the third lowest wOBA in the majors against righties. What’s also concerning is he’s allowed nine home runs already, which is two more than all of last season. Since he’s facing Jacob deGrom the odds of him earning a win are much less.

Safe, Steady & Limited Upside

Jordan Zimmerman: $8,600, TOR

Zimmerman has a 16.3 percent strikeout rate, which is the lowest it’s been since 2011. Also, the 5.6 percent walk rate is the highest it’s been since 2011. I haven’t watched all of his starts, but he hasn’t looked very good this year. The max fastball velocity is two mph down from two years ago and he’s allowed a lot of hard contact. The Blue Jays are likely to be without Jose Bautista because of the sore shoulder, which is another reason I put him in this class. If I knew the Blue Jays were going to start all of their best hitters I would put him in the No Thanks, But I’ll Pass class.

High Risk, High Reward

Alex Colome: $5,800, @LAA

Colome has pitched better than his ERA would indicate. He doesn’t walk batters, has good raw stuff to miss bats and generates a little better than average ground ball rate. The Angels offense without Mike Trout is very below average.

Mike Pelfrey: $4,600, @BOS

You may be scoffing at the idea of even mentioning Pelfrey, but he’s pitched well enough to at least get a mention. His strand rate and BABIP are both going to regress and he’s not striking out a lot of batters (only 11.9 percent). Maybe he’s not striking out a lot of batters, but he’s getting a lot of swings and misses? Of the 109 qualified starting pitchers he ranks 105 in swing and miss rate. So far he looks like a major regression candidate, but he has the 22nd lowest (or best) hard-hit rate among the same pitchers and has the seventh highest ground ball rate. One of the reasons why he’s performing so well has been due to the improvement of the split-changeup. A pitcher with this type of profile can be subject to a blow-up start, but at his price point if he even scores 20 points he would provide a profit.

Clay Buchholz: $7,000, MIN

In Buchholz’s last four starts he’s quietly posted a 2.48 ERA, 0.966 WHIP with a 19.8 percent strikeout rate and 5.4 percent walk rate. As any Red Sox fan will tell you, you have no idea what you’re going to get from start to start, but his upside is almost as high as anyone in baseball. At first I thought the price point was too high considering the opponent he’s facing, but the Twins offense has performed much better this past month as they have the eighth highest wOBA.

Ubaldo Jimenez: $6,400, @HOU

At this point any pitcher with swing and miss stuff facing the Astros is worth at least a look. I’m not excited about using him because he faced the Astros this past Wednesday and didn’t pitch very well.

No Thanks, But I’ll Pass

Clayton Kershaw: $10,700, @COL

In 16 career starts in Colorado Kershaw has a 4.78 ERA and a 1.333 WHIP. I’ve been saying for weeks there’s nothing wrong with him, but with so many good pitching options available the downside outweighs the limited upside.

Alex Wood: $8,200, @ARI

On a day with so many good pitchers I’m not rolling with Wood because he has a below average strikeout rate (16.4 percent) and above average walk rate (7.8 percent). Also, the Diamondbacks have the fifth highest wOBA against lefties in the majors and the game is being played in Arizona.

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DraftKings & Streamer Pitcher Rankings for May 31

Below you’ll find my DraftKings and streamer rankings for May 31. I rank the pitchers in vacuum, but I try to write about the value of each pitcher by format type (i.e. Pitcher A would be better in a GPP than a 50/50). You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the salary and where the game is being played.

Madison Bumgarner: $10,300, ATL

Bumgarner is easily the best pitcher starting on Sunday and he’s appropriately priced considering the Braves have the second lowest wOBA against lefties for the season. If I’m playing at DraftKings tomorrow he’s going to be one of my pitchers.

Tanner Roark: $6,000, @CIN

If I knew for a fact Roark could throw 90-plus pitches I’d have ranked higher. Since his price point is so low I would take a chance on him in all formats. In his first start of the year he threw 66 pitches, which I have to assume gets bumped up to at least the mid-80s. He’s a ground ball pitcher, which negates the hitter friendliness of the ballpark. Roark and Danny Salazar are the two best options after Madison Bumgarner. Roark’s price is so low I would use him above Salazar in a GPP, but I’d use Salazar in a 50/50.

Danny Salazar: $8,500, @SEA

For some Salazar is the clear second best pitcher going on Sunday (excluding the two late games), but I nurse doubt. It’s hard to argue against him. He has 66 strikeouts in 49.1 innings and he’s finally starting to limit the walks. On top of that the Mariners have the fourth lowest OBP in the majors (.296). What has me a little worried he’s allowed six walks in his past two starts. In his first six starts he had six walks. Odds are he’ll likely limit the walks and have a very good outing (especially if he doesn’t allow walks) to a Mariners offense that is below average without Nelson Cruz.

Drew Hutchison: $7,500, @MIN

Hutchison is the biggest wild card of the day as he could strikeout 10-plus in seven scoreless innings or give up five earned runs in four innings. I wrote a week ago in the Week 8 pitcher rankings I said I loved Hutchison’s matchup against the Twins and I still feel that way. The Twins are a mediocre offense against righties (14th in the majors in wOBA) and Hutchison is limiting walks and is still missing bats. Also, the Twins ballpark should suppress fly balls from leaving the ballpark. Hutchison is more of a GPP play than a 50/50 double up.

Jake Odorizzi: $7,400, @BAL

A lot of fantasy players are going to want to use Odorizzi, but on a day with so many good pitching matchups I’m staying away. The primary reasons why is the ballpark and how he’s a fairly fly ball heavy pitcher. To his credit he’s increased the ground ball rate (at the expense of the fly ball rate) this season, but at his price point I want more of a sure thing. If Tanner Roark was not pitching I would be much higher on Odorizzi.

Jason Hammel: $7,900, KC

The perception is the Royals offense has sputtered in the month of May, but the data doesn’t indicate that. In May they are 19th in the majors in wOBA so they’ve been below average, but not too bad. Since the game is in Chicago the Royals will most likely be without Kendrys Morales, which makes Hammel’s matchup more attractive. Hammels has pitched great, but other than his first in Colorado his opponents have not been very good. His start against the Royals will likely be against the best hitting lineup he’s faced all year, which at his price point, makes this is a trap game.

Chase Anderson: $5,500, @MIL

Anderson has put up great numbers, but even at his price point I’m avoiding him. On paper this looks like a good matchup. The Brewers are struggling to score runs and the Brewers will likely use a low level Triple-A pitcher, which makes the opportunity for a win much higher. However, he doesn’t have overpowering stuff and relies on generating weak contact to be successful. Usually this profile doesn’t project well in a very hitter friendly ballpark.

Carlos Martinez: $7,300, LAD

My analysis on Martinez is dependent upon the lineup the Dodgers will use. If Yasmani Grandal and Andre Ethier are in the lineup (as well as the other lefty hitters) then I wouldn’t use him as my second pitcher considering how many good pitching options there are.

Jesse Chavez: $6,500, NYY

Chavez has put up great numbers since joining the rotation (2.80 ERA and 1.089 WHIP) and is pitching at home, but his numbers have been dependent upon not giving up any home runs (4.3 percent HR/FB rate). Obviously he pitches in a ballpark that limits home runs, but that HR/FB rate isn’t going to sustain itself as the season progresses. Also, the Yankees are tenth in the majors in wOBA against righties.

Bartolo Colon: $6,900, MIA

Whether or not you use Colon is dependent on whether you believe the first six starts of the year or the last four. I believe he’s somewhere in the middle, which is why I’m not high on him despite the really good matchup. At his price point he doesn’t offer enough upside, especially in strikeout potential, to warrant using him considering his downside is extremely high.

Brett Anderson: $6,400, @STL

For the year Anderson has reverse splits, which is the opposite of his career numbers. Similar to Carlos Martinez, I want to see the lineup before making a recommendation on whether to use him or not. The Cardinals have been mediocre against lefties (13th in the majors in wOBA), but Randal Grichuk is making a lot of hard contact and the middle of the order mashes lefties. Anderson fits into the J.A. Happ class of pitcher in that Anderson has more value in traditional fantasy formats as a stream option.

J.A. Happ: $6,700, CLE

Happ has had a pseudo renaissance with the Mariners, posting a 2.05 ERA and 1.025 WHIP at home compared to 5.33 ERA and 1.407 WHIP on the road. However, I’m still weary of starting him. The Indians, against lefties, are tenth and fifth in the majors in wOBA and hard-hit average respectively. Happ is a fly ball pitcher and he’s pitching in a ballpark that suits his skillset means he has more value as a streaming option in traditional fantasy formats than DFS.

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Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings: Week 9

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

Stephen Strasburg left Friday’s game in the second inning and I currently do not know the extent of the injury, but as of now I’m not confident he will be able to make his next scheduled start. The same is also true of Scott Kazmir; at this point I do not know if he’ll be healthy for his next scheduled start. Even if both pitchers made their starts I have no idea if they’ll be able to finish the starts.

I was a huge believer in Collin McHugh entering the season and even though he hasn’t performed as well as last year I’m still buying him. The strike percentage and swing and miss rate are nearly identical as last year. Also, the ground ball rate is up and the walk rate is down. He may not have the upside of a strikeout per inning, but I still believe he finishes the year with a sub-3.20 ERA.

The Rays have the seventh highest wOBA against lefties, but I’m still recommending C.J. Wilson because of how well he performed against the Tigers, who at the time of his start lead the majors in wOBA against lefties.

Michael Wacha has been great this year, but his FIP suggests a regression is coming. However, I don’t see it starting against the Dodgers. What’s interesting about Wacha is he’s become a pitch-to-contact pitcher, ground ball pitcher and has decided to basically no longer strike anyone out. Pitchers like this are higher variance pitchers, but he’s facing Carlos Frias so he has a great chance to get a win.

Irregardless of all the injuries on the A’s pitching staff, Jesse Chavez has pitched well enough to earn a rotation spot the rest of the year. The Red Sox offense has been struggling the past month (23rd in wOBA), but eventually David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez are going to start hitting. Since pitching is relatively thin this week you’re probably going to start Chavez either way, but I’m wary he may not have a good outing.

I’m not a believer in what Tim Lincecum is doing this year, but he’s facing the Phillies, who have scored the lowest total of runs this year (which is extremely low considering how much of a hitters park their home stadium is).

Last year Matt Shoemaker allowed 14 home runs all of last year. This year he’s allowed 13. All of his peripheral statistics indicate he’s the same exact pitcher as last year. For example, the strike out rate, walk rate, swing and miss rate are all the same. However, the big change is the ground ball rate. This year it’s 33 percent compared to 42 percent last year. The lower ground ball rate is coming at the expense of the fly ball rate, which is contributing to the increased number of home runs allowed this year. The biggest reason why he’s struggled this season has been the inconsistent command of the changeup. This year he’s been leaving it in the middle of the zone far too often. If the command of that pitch improves then he’ll allow less home runs.


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