DraftKings/Streamer Pitcher Rankings for Monday, June 7

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings for Monday, June 8. Specifically, pitchers playing in the night games, I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.

With a short slate of games there are two aces, a few ground ballers and a couple of high risk, high reward pitchers. In my lineups I’m going to go with Chris Sale and another lower tier pitcher because Cole Hamels isn’t very safe in a tough matchup against the Reds.

Must Stats

Chris Sale: $11,400 – HOU

After struggling to begin the year Sale, in his past five starts (38.2 innings) has 53 strikeouts, 1.40 ERA and a 0.647 WHIP. With a lot of power right handed bats some fantasy owners may be scared to use Sale, but the Astros have the third highest strikeout rate against lefties and are only 17th in the majors in wOBA against lefties.

A.J. Burnett: $9,500 – MIL

Burnett is clearly the third best pitcher. He has the eighth highest ground ball rate among qualified starting pitchers and his FIP (2.87) suggests he hasn’t been all that lucky. Some fantasy players may be reluctant to use him because he has struggled in his past two starts, but I’m not worried. During those two games the ground ball rate, strikeout rate and walk rate are similar to his first nine starts. The only difference is the last two starts he had a .405 BABIP. The BABIP should positively regress.

Cole Hamels: $10,400 – @CIN

Similar to Chris Sale, Hamels began the season slow but has been dominant in his past six starts. In 44.1 innings he has 46 strikeouts, 1.83 ERA and a 0.902 WHIP. Unlike Sale, the Reds can hit lefties. Example, they have the 13th lowest strikeout rate and have the sixth best wOBA against lefties. Hamels is probably much better than 90 percent of the lefties the Reds faced this year, which means those statistics may not apply to Hamels. However, at his price range I nurse doubt about his ability to return the ROI with his high salary.

Almost Starts

Mike Bolsinger: $7,000 – CHC

Bolsinger is almost the same type of pitcher as A.J. Burnett, but without the long track record of success. In the past month the Cubs are 24th in the majors in wOBA and having the strikeout rate against righties. Bolsinger doesn’t miss as many bats as Burnett, but he generates more ground balls. His ground ball rate is the seventh highest among starting pitchers. The reason why I have Bolsinger rated ahead of Kennedy is because of the higher strikeout and win potential.

High Risk, High Reward

Ian Kennedy: $7,700 – @ATL

Kennedy’s biggest problem this year has been the long ball. In nine starts he’s allowed 12 home runs (25 percent HR/FB rate). The strikeout rate, walk rate and BABIP are almost identical to last year. Most surprisingly the swing and miss rate is three percentage points higher than last year. Therefore, if the HR/FB rate positively regresses (and it should because the Braves ballpark is a pitcher friendly park) he’s good enough to be the last starter on a 12-team mixed league team.

Shelby Miller: $8,400 – SD

I’ve watched Miller’s starts and he doesn’t pass the smell test. He’s generating a lot of ground balls, which is great considering how good the Braves shortstop is defensively. However, he doesn’t have impeccable command and he doesn’t miss a lot of bats. His ERA has been aided greatly by a .215 BABIP and 85 percent strand rate. He currently has a 3.55 FIP and by the end of the year he’ll have an ERA around that. In the last month the Padres are 27th in the majors in wOBA against righties so it’s possible Miller will be able to have good start, but his price point is too high considering his skillset.

Lance McCullers: $7,400 – @CWS

McCullers, in his first three starts had a strike percentage of 59.6 percent, which would make the second worst among qualified starting pitchers. In his last start he threw strikes 68.2 percent and had 11 strikeouts. I have no what kind of pitcher we are going to get, but his price point suggests the command has to be better than his first three starts. If you’re able to watch his bullpen session before the game and you can tell his command will be good then I would definitely use him

Jimmy Nelson: $6,700 – PIT

Nelson was really good in his first three starts, but since then he has been very bad. In his last eight starts the strikeouts have been there (20.4 percent), but he’s given up a lot of hits and home runs, which has led to him having a 5.89 ERA and 1.458 WHIP. Also, the Pirates in the last month have the highest wOBA against righties. However, since it’s a short slate and Nelson has shown he can be dominant means he’s at worth a look.

No Thanks, But I’ll Pass

John Lackey: $7,100 – @COL

Lackey has pitched great this season and since he generates so many ground balls he has a puncher’s chance of doing well, but the Rockies have a .353 wOBA at home.

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Fantasy Baseall Starting Pitcher Rankings: Week 10

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

I was light with the pitcher analysis this week because I’m writing DFS pitcher rankings every day and I feel like I would just be repeating myself. My DFS rankings actually provide good write-ups about how well/poorly a pitcher is performing in general. Check out my Twitter account for links to my DFS rankings for the past few days.

I am big believer in Trevor May moving forward because it looks like the fastball command has taken a big step forward.

After watching Carlos Martinez dominate the Dodgers I’m 85 percent there in regards to him truly being a breakout candidate. However, if you’re a big believer in him you can’t feel good about starting him in Colorado.

I was a big believer in Carlos Rodon when he was facing the Rangers, but this week against the Astros I’m more pessimistic because their best hitters are right handed and Rodon still walks too many batters.

 


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DraftKings/Streamer Pitcher Rankings for Friday, June 4

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings for Friday, June 5. Specifically, pitchers playing in the night games, I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.

Despite a large slate of games there is no dominant, must-start pitcher. Instead there are a lot of high variance pitchers. Therefore, if you’re able to choose a cheap pitcher(s) that breaks out you have a great chance to win.

Almost Starts

Jake Odorizzi: $8,600 – @SEA

Odorizzi has given up four earned runs twice this year. One start was at the Yankees and the other at the Orioles. If you remove those two games he’s only given up13 earned runs in 60 innings. Odorizzi is a much better pitcher when he’s pitching in pitcher friendly confines (most pitchers are, but he’s even better), which is why he is my number option. The Mariners are like the Astros in that they will either hit home runs or make an out. He’s been a little lucky with the HR/FB rate because he’s giving up the same amount of weak and hard contact. Even though he’s my number option I’m not very confident in the pick because of his relatively high salary. The major reason why I’m not confident is he doesn’t have overpowering stuff and if he doesn’t have his command the Mariners could rough him up.

Brett Anderson: $7,000 – STL

Among qualified starters Anderson has the fourth best soft-hit average for year. At a high level it makes sense that pitchers who generate more weak contact should be successful, but to honest I don’t know what to make of that statistic because Mike Pelfrey, Dallas Keuchel and Shane Greene have higher soft-hit averages. It’s also no surprise he has the second highest ground ball rate among qualified starting pitchers. The Cardinals are 17th in the majors in wOBA against lefties, but that should improve as the season continues because their best hitters are better against lefties and they have good players that can be platooned against lefties.

Tyson Ross: $9,400 – @CIN

I don’t know what to make of Ross. He leads the majors in ground ball rate, but also has the third highest walk rate among qualified starting pitchers. What’s strange is even though he has a 1.50 WHIP his FIP is 3.15, which means despite the walks he’s pitched very well. Ross will likely be the number one pitcher for a lot of fantasy players, but if I’m playing more than $9,500 want a sure thing (I know his cost $100 less but you know what I mean) and he’s not. The Reds have the fourth highest walk rate and seventh lowest strikeout rate. So, something has to give and I can see a scenario where he strikes out 9-plus in seven innings and I can see him having an in-game WHIP in the 1.50s.

Safe, Steady & Limited Upside

Tanner Roark: $5,700 – CHC

Given his price point, skill set, matchup and ballpark Roark is the best value on Friday. Some fantasy players may be hesitant to use him because the strikeout rate has been low in his two starts (9.3 percent), but in those two starts his swing and miss rate is 19.5 percent, which is exactly the same as 2014. Therefore, I expect the strikeout rate to increase and I would have said that even if he wasn’t facing the Cubs who lead the league in strikeout rate.

High Risk, High Reward

Nate Eovaldi: $6,300 – LAA

The Angels are 25th in the majors in wOBA against righties and their lineup is very right handed. Both of these factors bodes well for Eovaldi, who has struggled against lefties and has never had an issue getting righties. What’s troubling is he has the lowest strikeout rate of his career against righties. However, if you remove the first start of the year its more in-line with his career numbers, but they’re still a career low. The reason why I have optimism is because his swing and miss rate against righties is exactly at his career average.

Carlos Martinez: $9,100 – @LAD

Martinez has pitched great in his past four starts, but I’m not a total believer he’s turned a corner. The simple reason is he still walked a lot of batters during that stretch (8.8 percent walk rate). The strikeout rate was 28.4 percent and he was generating ground balls at a 60 percent clip, which is why he’s been so successful. The Dodgers have the highest wOBA against righties for the season and even from May they’re second in wOBA. If Martinez was priced around $7,500 I would be more inclined to use him, but I have doubts he’ll be able to continue his success against the Dodgers.

Aaron Sanchez: $6,100 – HOU

Sanchez is the ultimate high risk pitcher. He has a good matchup on paper and he has the raw stuff to exploit the matchup. I’ve always been wary of high walk pitchers and Sanchez is an extreme walk pitcher. Despite the high walks he’s only allowed more than three runs only once in ten starts. Obviously his strand rate has been extremely high (80 percent), but the reason why the strand rate has been high has been due to the 59.2 percent ground ball rate, the fifth best among qualified starters.

Kyle Lohse: $5,800 – @MIN

After his first 6-7 starts Lohse looked like a big regression candidate because his ERA was much higher than his FIP. However, the regression hasn’t come and his FIP has increased to the point where it’s likely he’s no longer a quality starting pitcher. However, I still there has been some bad luck. The line drive rate is up, but his hard-hit rate is similar to the past couple of seasons, which implies he’s been unlucky with the batted balls. The Twins have the fourth lowest wOBA against righties in the majors and the ballpark will suppress fly balls from turning into home runs, which makes Lohse an intriguing option.

Edison Volquez: $7,800 – TEX

Despite his numbers last year and this year Volquez does not pass the smell test for me. He has a below average strikeout rate and walks batters at a high clip. He’s been able to get away with that combination due to playing on a really good defensive team and he generates an above average strikeout rate. The Rangers best hitters are lefties and they have the 13th best wOBA against righties doesn’t mean this will be a cake walk for Volquez.

Tim Lincecum: $7,700 – @PHI

Lincecum’s ERA suggests he pitched really well, but the strikeout rate is the lowest of his career and the walk rate is tied for the highest of his career. So, he’s missing less bats and allowing more men on-base. That’s not a good recipe for sustained success. The reason why he’s priced so high is because of the ERA and how bad the Phillies are offensively. Lincecum may be able to have another good start, but at his price point I would look for a pitcher with more upside.

No Thanks, But I’ll Pass

Jose Quintana: $8,100 – DET

Quintana has pitched better than his ERA would indicate, but it’s difficult for me to use him against Detroit (especially at his price point). He’s faced the Tigers twice and in the first game he allowed nine earned runs in four innings. The second start was two earned runs five innings. Also, the Tigers are really good lefties; they have the seventh highest wOBA for the season. In terms of overall ability Quintana is the best pitcher pitching on Friday, but the matchup isn’t very good.

Scott Kazmir: $7,500 – @BOS

The biggest question I have about Kazmir is will be able to pitch deep into games? He left his last start (on 5.27.15) after three innings with shoulder tightness. Even prior to that he wasn’t pitching deep into games. He hasn’t thrown more than 6.0 innings since May. If I knew I could get 6-plus innings I wouldn’t put him in this section, but I rather take a wait and see approach.

Jered Weaver: $7,900 – @NYY

In his last five starts Weaver has a 1.98 ERA and 0.908 WHIP. However, I’m still avoiding him because he’s a fly ball leaning pitcher and he’s pitching in a bam box. I think he gives up at least one home run and has a higher percentage of a blow up start. He has pitched well but at his price point the ROI is not there.

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