Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you’re playing in DFS on Monday you’re probably going to use either (or both) Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez (for the record, Kershaw is my number one pitcher). If you don’t use both pitchers you’re most likely going to win or lose, because of the short slate, on your second pitcher performs. Below are my starting pitcher rankings. Also, all my analysis in regards to team based statistics are the same handedness of the pitcher.

Michael Pineda

This past Wednesday I wrote I was hesitant to use Pineda because after a stellar start to the year he was very average. He pitched great against the Marlins that night, but I still have reservations if he will continue to improve upon his last start. However, he’s facing the Phillies and even if he’s only 75 percent of his true talent level he should do well. If you’re playing in a GPP at DraftKings I bet the majority owners will go with Pineda and either Kershaw or Hernandez so you may want to use another pitcher.

Hector Santiago

I’ve been hesitant to recommend Santiago because of the high walk rate, but in his last eight starts he only has 12 walks (6.2 percent walk rate). The Astros’ best hitters are righties, which implies they should mash lefties, but for the year they only have the tenth best hard hit rate against southpaws. Santiago is a fly ball pitcher and he’s pitching at home. The Astros have the seventh highest strikeout rate against lefties so if he can limit the amount of hard hit contact he should do well.

Drew Hutchison

In regards to upside, Hutchison’s upside is as high as any pitcher starting on Monday. I was extremely high on him entering the season, but after watching him struggle in most of his starts I’m backing off. The biggest reason why he’s struggled has been due to bad fastball command to righties. He was very successful last year throwing the fastball up in the zone, but this year when the catcher wants the fastball up he’s leaving it in the middle of the strike zone. What has me the most concerned is his plan of attack is always the same to righties: get ahead in the count with the fastball then throw sliders down and away.

The Rays are below average offense against righties (in both wOBA and hard hit rate). They also have the seventh highest strikeout rate and have the ninth worst in-play rate, which means they won’t put a lot of balls in-play and will strikeout a lot. The reason why I rated Hutchison ahead of Tommy Milone is because the true talent level discrepancy is wide.

Tommy Milone

Milone is a getting a lot of love in the fantasy community as a sneaky streaming option. Milone is pitching at home, which suits his talent level (i.e. he pitches to contact with well below average stuff and hopes the ballpark will suppress fly balls). Also, the White Sox have the lowest wOBA against lefties for the year. In fact its 42 points less than the next team. They also have the lowest hard hit rate (by 34 points) against lefties too. Milone doesn’t have good stuff so you’re playing with fire, but if there was ever a chance to use him and feel good about it it’s this matchup.

Trevor Bauer

At first glance I thought Bauer would be my number option because on a pure talent level he’s the best pitcher. The Tigers matchup is obviously not a good one, but it’s not as a bad as you may think. For the year, they’re only 11^th in wOBA and tenth in hard hit average. Part of the reason why the numbers could be suppressed was due to Victor Martinez hitting fourth for half of the season. Bauer’s stuff is good enough he could strikeout 10-plus, but since he walks so many hitters he’s going to be flirting with trouble the entire game.

Tsuyoshi Wada

In six starts Wada has been incredibly inconsistent regardless of the matchup. In his 2015 Wada struck out nine in 4.2 innings, but since then he hasn’t had more than six strikeouts. One reason why the strikeout totals have been down was due his low pitch counts, but in his last start he threw 107 pitches in seven innings. The Dodgers have the sixth highest hard hit average against lefties and since Wada walks too many hitter’s means I’m looking elsewhere.

Matt Andriese

Since Andriese is a ground baller he has a puncher’s chance to pitch well, but his hard hit rate would put him in the bottom 15 percent among starting pitchers (small sample caveat). If he wasn’t facing the Blue Jays I could be convinced he’s worth a start on a short slate, but the Blue Jays have the best offense in baseball.

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

I was light with the pitcher analysis this week because I’m writing DFS pitcher rankings every day and I feel like I would just be repeating myself. My DFS rankings actually provide good write-ups about how well/poorly a pitcher is performing in general. Check out my Twitter account for links to my DFS rankings for the past few days.

I was extremely impressed with Matt Wisler’s debut Friday night against the Mets. There is a slight asterisk because it was the Mets, but the bottom line is he has the pitches that can get lefties and righties out and most importantly, his command looked big league ready.

I’ve been saying all season that I still believe in Collin McHugh, but at this point I no longer believe he can revert back to the player he was in 2014, but I still believe he can be a top 50 starting pitcher the rest of year. The primary reason is his swing and miss rate is 24.2, which puts him in the top 25 percent among qualified starting pitchers. The strikeouts should improve, but his hard hit rate is much higher than last year, which indicates when he’s missing, he’s missing badly.

I wrote a few days ago I have no idea what to make of Jimmy Nelson, but he’s facing the Mets and the matchup is worth a stream start in a 12-team mixed league. Also, he’s going to be a sneaky play in DFS formats. 

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.

The rankings are slanted toward a GPP, but the write-ups provide (hopefully) the information necessary to fill out a double-up lineup. With so many aces going you’re going to win or lose based on which ace you use regardless of the format so I’m focusing on the aces and one. Also, I’m going to use two aces and find cheap hitters.

Tier I: The Aces

Clayton Kershaw: $12,900 – TEX

Yesterday Brett Anderson was my second best pitcher because how inept the Rangers offense has been since against lefties. Anderson didn’t do as well as I thought he would, but after the first inning he settled down and mowed down the Rangers. Kershaw is vastly superior to Anderson and the Rangers will be without a DH.

Carlos Martinez: $8,400 – @MIN

I bet a lot of fantasy players will have Martinez in their lineups as either their ace or second starting pitcher. The Twins have the second lowest wOBA, seventh highest strikeout rate and eighth lowest hard hit average in the majors against righties.

Martinez, in his last six starts, has been unbelievable. He has a 28.4 percent strikeout rate, 1.16 ERA and 1.0866 WHIP. He also has a 9.0 percent walk rate and if you’ve read me in the past I do not like using walkers. Martinez falls into the rare Tyson Ross class in that they strikeout and walk a lot of batters, but they do not get shelled because the incredibly high ground ball rate, which strands a lot of runners (Martinez’s strand rate during this stretch is 94.5 percent).

Some may call this a trap because Martinez has pitched so well and the Twins are so inept against righties. Others may say he is the perfect complement to their ace and has more upside some of the higher priced options.

Felix Hernandez: $10,300 – SF

I’ve been saying all season I don’t believe the Giants offense is very good, but at some point I have to start believing what the data is telling me. Against righties, they are sixth in the majors in wOBA, third lowest strikeout rate, and third best in-play rate. Basically, they don’t strikeout and put the ball in-play.

For the year Hernandez’s walk rate (7.7 percent) is the highest it’s been since 2008. You may be thinking his last blowup start inflated the walk rate, but it was 7.3 percent before that start. He’s been able to limit the damage from walks due an extremely high ground ball rate (60.2 percent), which is the highest it’s been since 2007.

The walk rate is concerning, but he’s not giving up a lot of hard contact. In fact, his hard hit rate is the lowest it’s been since 2011. Obviously he did look good in his last start against the Astros and I wonder what his price would have been if that start never occurred (I think his price would at least be $300-500 more).

David Price: $11,300 – @CIN

For the year the Reds have the fifth best wOBA against lefties. However, at the same time they’re only 23^rd in hard hit average (against lefties), which implies they’ve either been lucky with BABIP or lucky in the extra base hit department. The biggest question I have with Price is the strikeouts. His strikeout rate (21.9 percent) is the lowest it’s been since 2010. He has two starts where he’s struck out 11 or more, but he’s also had four starts where he’s struck out three or less. The Reds are in the middle of pack in regards to strikeout rate so it’s hard to see him having a big day in the strikeout department. In regards to hard hit rate it’s the second highest of his career, which indicates he has not been as dominant as the past.

Johnny Cueto: $10,000 – DET

You may think Cueto gets an edge because they game is in the NL and the Tigers lose the benefit of the DH. However, the Tigers have been using the likes of Tyler Collins and Rajai Davis at that position since Victor Martinez went on the DL so the loss of the DH will be minimal. Of all the pitchers mentioned Cueto is pitching the second best, but the matchup is extremely difficult.

Against righties, the Tigers have the fourth highest wOBA, eighth lowest strikeout rate and seventh highest hard hit average. What’s concerning is Cueto’s hard hit rate is the highest it’s been since 2010 and the ground ball rate is the lowest it’s been since his rookie year in 2008. Cueto could do really well, but the Tigers make a lot of hard contact and he’s allowing more hard contact.

Madison Bumgarner: $10,700 – @SEA

Bumgarner’s matchup is the most intriguing of all the pitchers I’m writing about because it’s difficult to understand the Mariners offense against lefties. They have the 13^th best wOBA, but they have the second best hard hit rate. They have the ninth highest in-play rate and they don’t strikeout (12^th lowest walk rate). The fact they’re making so much hard contact is the primary reason why I am ranking him below David Price. Another reason is when two pitchers are very close I will always lean towards the pitcher playing in the NL.

Similar to David Price, Bumgarner is not striking out as many batters as the previous couple of years and is a high variance pitcher in regards to his strikeout totals.

Michael Pineda: $8,600 – MIA

Pineda was really good to begin the season, but in his last five starts he has not been very good. The table below compares his first seven starts compared to this last five. The biggest thing you will notice is he’s striking out less batters and allowing much more hard contact.

For the year the Marlins are 25^th in wOBA, 17^th in hard hit average, and 15th in strikeout rate (all the statistics are against righties). Basically, the Marlins are an average offense and the addition of the DH doesn’t improve their offense (my guess is Ichiro will be the DH or he’ll play the outfield and maybe Giancarlo Stanton will be the DH). Pineda could have a great game, but I’m not counting on it.

Tier II: Value Pick

Jesse Chavez: $6,800 – SD

Chavez is not an ace, but I wanted to make special mention of him. The table below provides data for Chavez and two other pitchers mentioned in this article. Since this is a blind resume I removed the names, but what pitcher do you think is Chavez?

Do you have your choice? Player A is Chavez; B is David Price; C is Madison Bumgarner. I’m not indicating Chavez is as good as the two other pitchers, but his salary is nearly half, which means he could be a tremendous value.

Unlike the Marlins, the Padres will be aided greatly by the DH. I bet Matt Kemp gets pushed to DH and Melvin Upton Jr. will play the outfield. The Padres are an average offense against righties. On the road they have a .292 wOBA and .282 wOBA at home so the offense has been inept to below average. For the year they have seventh lowest hard hit average and eighth highest ground ball rate so when they make contact its weakly hit ground balls. Of all the pitchers mentioned Chavez may be the best value.