On Sunday morning I had my second and last draft of the season, a 12-team mixed 5×5 Roto NFBC mixed league draft with two catchers. The Google doc (below) has all my picks. I had my first draft literally 14 hours before this draft so I was a little burnt out for this draft but nonetheless I am happy with my draft. To see how my first draft turned out please go here.
The biggest flaw with my team is I am heavily relying on Trea Turner for my stolen bases. I projected him to steal 59 and I think that’s relatively fair if he plays a full year.
Below I will write a brief blurb about every player I choose.
If you would like to hear my analysis and opinions the rest of the year please listen and subscribe to my fantasy baseball podcast called The Fantasy Fellows.
Trea Turner – His floor is Starling Marte and his ceiling is the best fantasy player in the game. I seriously considered drafting Clayton Kershaw with this pick but with every mock I did I couldn’t get a good blend of offense and defense statistics.
JD Martinez – This draft room under valued home runs, which means, in retrospect I wish I took Jose Ramirez. I valued Martinez more than Ramirez because I wanted more power with a good batting average.
Kenley Jansen – I may have overpaid but with decreased starting pitcher workloads Jansen’s elite statistics are even more valuable.
Buster Posey – He was my number one catcher because of how many more games he will play compared than other catchers and because he should have a .300-plus batting average. I only projected 14 home runs, which is fine because I was prepared to draft more power later in the draft. The idea was to get a good batting average from Posey to offset the batting average from big power guys like a Joey Gallo and/or Miguel Sano. The Giants lineup is much better compared to last year so his counting statistics should be very good. Lastly, NFBC is a two catcher format. I applied position scarcity to catcher and Posey was an easy pick at this ADP.
Jean Segura – I actually wanted Segura at the Posey pick, but I was monitoring the team compositions of the two teams that picked behind me and they all had shortstops rostered, which means I felt like Segura would come back to me on the turn.
Khris Davis – I didn’t think Davis would fall to me at this pick but he did. He is a very consistent power hitter. He probably hits .245 with 40-45 home runs.
Nelson Cruz – At the previous pick I was debating between Davis and Cruz even though I had Cruz rated higher. I sided with Davis because I felt he was safer. When Cruz came back around on the turn I couldn’t pass him up.
Jon Lester and Mashiro Tanaka – I originally didn’t want to take pitching here but I couldn’t pass these guys up. I rated both of them as Tier 4 pitching options that should positively regress. I don’t expect ace level production but I think they positively regress. Its also possible they win 14-17 games because of the teams they play for.
Joey Gallo – He has the most raw power in baseball and I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 50-plus home runs. I think the batting average positively regresses to the .220s.
Ender Inciarte – Taking Inciarte fits my team really well because of the high batting average, steals and the potential to score 100 runs. I only projected nine home runs but Sano and Gallo fills in the power numbers.
Ian Desmond – I think Desmond plays every day. He’s getting paid too much to not play every day. If he plays a full year he either goes 20/20 or is very close.
Wilson Ramos – I rated both Ramos and Yadier Molina as the same but I went with Ramos because he has higher upside and my offense, at this point, lacked upside compared to my draft yesterday. Ramos is very good he should hit in the prime spots in the lineup (probably 4th of 5th).
Ian Kinsler – At this point in the draft Kinsler was the best second baseman available. Other “better” hitters at other positions were available but delta between Kinsler and other second basemen was extremely high. *At this point in the draft I didn’t know Scott Kingery signed his contract. If I knew Kingery was available I would have drafted him. I think Kinsler bounces back. He is going to bat leadoff and he should score 100 runs with 15-20 home runs.
Carlos Santana – I view Santana as extremely safe; he doesn’t have a lot of upside but he has an extremely high floor.
Mike Clevinger – I love Clevinger’s strikeout potential. The only way my pitching strategy works is if I get a lot of strikeouts from my starting pitching and at this point in the draft Clevinger had the most upside. Clevinger’s rate stats and ADP reminds me of Robbie Ray two years ago.
Michael Conforto – If he comes back May 1 he is a great value at this ADP.
Julio Teheran and Tanner Roark – I spoke about about both of these guys in the Fantasy Fellows, but the summary is: they are not as bad as 2016 and not as good as 2015. They are a blend of both seasons. I would not be shocked if Roark wins 17-19 games for that team in that division.
Odubel Herrera – Herrera probably doesn’t get to play every day because there are 5-6 players for 4 positions, but he should provide 15/15 with a .280 batting average.
Willie Calhoun – If Calhoun was on the Opening Day Roster he goes at least 5-10 rounds earlier. I think he spends the first month in AAA to extend his team control a year. Currently, Ryan Rua is the left fielder. No offense to Rua but Calhoun is a much better hitter.
Cameron Maybin – I don’t he plays a full year but on my roster he doesn’t need to. My idea during the draft was if you combine 4-5 weeks of Maybin with the statistics of Conforto or Willie Calhoun you have a player with 25 home runs with 10-15 stolen bases.
Marco Estrada – He positively regresses this year.
Eduardo Rodriguez – He was extremely good before he hurt his knee.
Tyler Glasnow – The last two seasons in AAA he has 200 innings pitched. In those innings he has 270 strikeouts with a sub-2.00 ERA. If can figure it out he’s 2017 Luis Severino from a ADP perspective.
Brad Boxberger – I think he’s the Diamondbacks closer to begin the year and Archie Bradley is a two inning reliever.
Cam Bedrosian – All reports say he’s the closer. I think he positively regresses this year and if he is somewhat good to begin the year he will have a long leash because the Angels manager is very loyal to his closers.
Tyler Lyons – With Luke Gregerson hurt Lyons should get the first save opportunity but the Cardinals manager probably will not do that because Lyons is a lefty and lefty relievers do not close games. But you never know.
Walker Buehler – From the scouting reports I’ve read he’s ready for the majors. The Dodgers are not shy to quickly bring up prospects after they have an extra year of control over a player. The Dodgers rotation has a lot of health question marks so I figure he’s in the majors by May 1.
Yoshihisa Hirano – Hirano is probably not good enough to close but this pick is more about me not believing Archie Bradley closes games and drafting Hirano hedges my bet on the Diamondbacks bullpen. If Hirano is the 7th inning reliever then I drop him for someone else.
