On Saturday March 23 I had my first fantasy baseball draft of the season, a 12-team mixed 5×5 Roto NFBC mixed league draft with two catchers. The entire draft can be viewed via Google Docs.
Below are my overall picks. If you want to only see my picks please click here. Overall, I am extremely happy with my draft. I literally got everyone I wanted and I was able to get great value towards the end of the draft.
I hit my home run, stolen base, RBI and runs targets. I did hit my batting average threshold of .267 but I’m literally projected to hit .267. Ideally I like to have more wiggle room for batting average but of the five offensive categories batting average is the least predictable.
My pitching staff is light on saves and I’m going to have to mix and match starters the whole season, but that has always been a strength of mine. Also, I’ve found its much easier to find pitching on the waiver wire than hitting. As long my pitching holds up and I don’t have too many injuries, I’m going to win this league.
Below is a brief description about each player I choose.
Trea Turner – He is one of the few players who provide average-to-great production in every category. Also, its very possible he leads the league in stolen bases.
Alex Bregman – He was sixth ranked hitter overall and I was ecstatic he fell to me. Based on NFBC’s ADP I knew there was a pretty good chance he would fall to me. About six weeks ago I had a “do no draft” designation for him because he had elbow surgery in the offseason, but with the Astros giving him an extension told me Bregman is probably fine. Another thing I love is his dual eligibility between SS and 3B. In NFBC having players who can play different positions is underrated.
Andrew Benintendi – I didn’t think he would fall to me, but he did. He was ranked as my 19th hitter overall because he is a rare five tool player with the potential to go 20/20 with 110-plus runs scored. (The Red Sox have said he is going to leadoff.)
Patrick Corbin – he was my seventh rated pitcher overall. He has a limited track record of elite production, but that’s why he fell as far as he did. In order to win these leagues you need to draft players who will outperform their ADP. Corbin was the 14th pitcher taken so if Corbin gives me 85-90% of what I projected I will break even with this pick. Regarding his track record, the Nationals have done a pretty good job of keeping their pitchers healthy and they’ve done a good job of identifying pitching via the free agent market. Lastly, I think the Nationals have the most talent overall and I wouldn’t be surprised if Corbin wins 15-plus games.
Eugenio Suarez – I drafted Suarez last year in the 15th round and got a huge profit out of him. This year I will break even in terms of cost and value, which is fine for me. I had a couple of hitters rated ahead of him, but with the construction of my team I need a safe hitter with power. He’s a steady hitter who should hit 30-plus home runs and could drive in 110-plus runs (if Jesse Winker and Joey Votto are hitting in front of him all year).
Eddie Rosario – I love him. He’s being under drafted because he hasn’t played a full season and he plays for a small market team so he isn’t a household name yet. In the last two seasons he’s averaged 25 home runs with 8.5 stolen bases with a .289 batting average. He’s going to hit 3rd or 4th in a Twins lineup that could be better than you think.
Felipe Vazzuez – He’s one of the rare closers who, if he’s healthy will be the closer. He had an elbow issue last year, but if he’s healthy I expect 35 saves with a 2.75 ERA and almost 90 strikeouts.
Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos – Catcher is the only position where there is severe scarcity. MLB teams currently do not care about offense at this position; they want defense-first catchers. Specifically, catchers who are great framing. I had Ramos, Yadir Molina and Buster Posey rated ahead of Grandal, but I choose Grandal because I needed his home runs. My roster needed someone who could safely hit 20-plus home runs. Ramos provides batting average and should hit in the middle of the lineup. If you combine their statistics they will hit .267 with 38 home runs, 150 RBI and 125 runs scored. No other catching duo in my league will provide those numbers.
Rafael Devers – He has unlimited potential. He’s only 22 and the Red Sox have indicated he’s going to bat third in that potent lineup. Benintendi, Betts, Devers and JD Martinez. Could Devers hit 30 home runs and drive in 110-plus runs? I didn’t project him to do that, but I think there’s a greater than 50% chance he does. Also, Keith Law planted his flag on Devers as a breakout candidate.
David Roberston – If we knew he was “the guy” he would have been drafted earlier. Gabe Kapler has said he’s going to mix and match pitchers for the 9th inning, but I think Robertson gets 85-90% of the save opportunities with room for more.
Stephen Piscotty – with Matt Olson out for 4-6 weeks Piscotty could bat third in a very good lineup. Piscotty is a safe and boring fantasy player. He’ll hit 25-plus home runs with good accounting numbers. Also, most importantly, he’s going to play every day. I rated Piscotty and David Peralta the same but I think Peralta
Harrison Bader – He struggles to hit right handed pitching, but A) his defense is good he’s going to play every day and B) why can’t he improve? If Bader plays a full year I think he comes quite close to a 20/20 season. He’s stolen five or six bases this spring. Would anyone be surprised if he steals 30 bases?
Rick Porcello – I wanted innings and reliability. He’s not repeating his Cy Young season, but I can see 190 innings with 3.90 ERA and 15 wins. He’s only 30 years old and this is a contract year.
Jonathan Schoop – two seasons ago he hit .293 with 32 home runs. The batting average was BABIP fueled, but last year his BABIP was extremely low. If you average out his last two seasons he’s a .267 hitter with 26.5 home runs. I think this is very doable. To be honest, the Brewers flat out released him even though they traded for him during the stretch run last season. Maybe they know something we don’t?
Jake Bauers – provides first base and outfield eligibility. I do not believe his .201 batting average is his true talent level. He’s probably more of a .240 hitter who has the power to hit 20-25 home runs with 5-10 stolen bases.
Gregory Polanco – he probably doesn’t start playing until mid-to-late April but when healthy he’s a top 30ish outfielder.
Kevin Kiermier – I draft him every year because if, and that’s a big if, he plays a full year he could be a 20/20 player. If I only get 4-6 weeks out of him Polanco should be ready at about that time ;0)
Corbin Burnes – I relied on Keith Law for this pick. For a link, please read Rafael Devers’ summary.
Forrest Whitley – This is a draft the talent, not the situation pick. Whitley is the best pitcher in the minors and if he played the whole season in the majors he’s a borderline top 40 starting pitcher.
Stephen Souza – In 2017 he hit 30 home runs and stole 16 bases. He looks healthy and is only 29 years old. Why can’t he put up similar numbers this year?
Zach Eflin – everyone loved Nick Pivetta, but I think Eflin has more potential. Also, Tristan Cockroft agrees too.
Anthony DeSclafani – He got unlucky last year (3.86 xFIP) and it was his first year back in the Majors after missing all of 2018. If takes a step forward he’s a top 60 starting pitcher.
Joc Pederson – his strikeout rate has decreased year-over-year for three seasons in a row. Maybe he hits .260 with 30 home runs?
Kevin Gausman – did really in a short stint with the Braves. He had shoulder issues at the beginning of the spring but by all accounts he should be fine in two weeks. If not, I can drop him. If he’s healthy he’s a big lottery ticket.
Miguel Sano – Big lottery ticket. He may not have full playing time given to him when he comes off the DL, but he has more raw power than Joey Gallo.
Vince Velasquez – he is a WHIP liability but if he gets 32 starts he could prove 200 strikeouts.
Dylan Bundy – he was awful last year but the raw stuff is still there.
Mike Fiers – he’s a great streaming option when he’s at home.
Starlin Castro – I had to pick a middle infielder because the draft software I had to because that slot was open. Technically it wasn’t because Alex Bregman could slot there, but it’s cool. I dropped Castro and picked up Bryse Wilson. He’s starting the first weekend for the Braves and he has pretty good stuff. If he doesn’t look good in his first start I’ll drop him and pick someone else up.
