Ranking The Arizona Diamondbacks Rotation

by Matt Commins Posted on February 9, 2013

With a starting rotation consisting of Ian Kennedy, Brandon McCarthy, Trevor Cahill, Wade Miley and Tyler Skaggs the Diamondbacks could have the second best rotation in the National League. On the surface it looks as though the rotation is a collection of number three starters who do not have a lot of fantasy upside. However, there is some hidden value in some of these pitchers. Below are player profiles of each player as well as my rankings from fantasy point-of-view. Please note the format for the “ADP” section reads as follows: ADP: positional draft position (overall draft position). For example, Ian Kennedy is currently the 26th starting pitcher being taken and is going 121st overall.  

Ian Kennedy

Throws: R | Age: 28 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | ADP: 26 (121)

Year

LVL

AGE

IP

W

SO

BB

ERA

WHIP

SO%

BB%

BABIP

LOB%

HR/FB

2009

AAA

24

22.7

1

25

7

1.59

1.10

25.0%

7.0%

.290

80.0%

0.0%

2010

MLB

25

194

9

168

70

3.80

1.20

20.7%

8.6%

.256

75.5%

13.2%

2011

MLB

26

222

21

198

55

2.88

1.09

22.0%

6.1%

.270

79.2%

9.6%

2012

MLB

27

208.3

15

187

55

4.02

1.30

20.8%

6.1%

.306

74.9%

12.8%

Compared to 2011, Kennedy had a down year. His ERA went from 2.88 to 4.02 and his WHIP increased from 1.09 to 1.30. Upon a closer look at the BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB rates – .270, 79.2% and 9.6% respectively, it’s clear the 2011 season was unsustainable and was bound to regress, which it did. Despite the ERA there wasn’t a big difference between the previous two seasons; he maintained his strikeout and walk percentages, which gives me hope he can a solid number three fantasy starter. He’s currently going 26th overall, which is too high. I bet fantasy owners are betting on a return to his 2011 season, which is a mistake. I’d draft him as 180K, 3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP pitcher.

Wade Miley

Throws: L | Age: 26 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | ADP: 52 (208)

Year

LVL

AGE

IP

W

SO

BB

ERA

WHIP

SO%

BB%

BABIP

LOB%

HR/FB

2011

AA

24

75.3

4

46

28

4.78

1.35

33.8%

20.6%

.296

58.0%

25.0%

2011

AAA

24

54.3

4

56

16

3.64

1.27

24.8%

7.1%

.000

72.6%

–

2011

MLB

24

40

4

25

18

4.5

1.65

13.9%

10.0%

.321

79.9%

15.0%

2012

MLB

25

194.7

16

144

37

3.33

1.18

17.8%

4.6%

.293

72.0%

7.5%

Miley came out of nowhere (in terms of fantasy hype) and came within seven points of winning the NL Rookie of the Year. He throws a lot of strikes (tenth most in the majors) and relies on location to get outs. He throws his fastball in the low 90s and can touch 95 mph. He has a deep bag of secondary pitches including a changeup, slider, and curveball. His best secondary pitch is the changeup because of the downward fading action. His curveball can be very hittable, as it’s left up in the zone too often. If he improves the quality of his curveball he’s the front runner for the best fantasy starter. If that doesn’t happen his ERA will regress to the high 3s and have a 1.20 WHIP.

Trevor Cahill

Throws: R | Age: 25 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | ADP: 53 (212)

Year

LVL

AGE

IP

W

SO

BB

ERA

WHIP

SO%

BB%

BABIP

LOB%

HR/FB

2009

MLB

21

178.7

10

90

72

4.63

1.44

11.6%

9.3%

.272

72.6%

16.2%

2010

MLB

22

196.7

18

118

63

2.97

1.11

15.1%

8.0%

.236

76.5%

13.5%

2011

MLB

23

207.7

12

147

82

4.16

1.43

16.3%

9.1%

.302

72.8%

13.3%

2012

MLB

24

200

13

156

74

3.78

1.29

18.6%

8.8%

.289

71.4%

14.2%

Based on last year’s results, it’s no question the Diamondbacks got the lower end of the stick in the Cahill, Jarrod Parker deal. However, Cahill wasn’t a slouch, posting a 3.78 ERA with 156 Ks. To say Cahill is a ground ball pitcher is an understatement; he led the league in ground ball percentage (among qualified pitchers). There is hope Cahill can improve in 2013 with the addition of either Didi Gregorius or Cliff Pennington, who are both plus-plus defenders, to play shortstop. Also, Martin Prado is replacing Ryan Roberts at third base, which is also a defensive upgrade. Cahill can provide 150Ks with a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Brandon McCarthy

Throws: R | Age: 29 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | ADP: 83 (242)

Year

LVL

AGE

IP

W

SO

BB

ERA

WHIP

SO%

BB%

BABIP

LOB%

HR/FB

2008

MLB

25

22

1

10

8

4.09

1.27

10.8%

8.6%

.239

72.6%

9.1%

2009

MLB

25

97.3

7

65

36

4.62

1.36

15.5%

8.6%

.274

68.5%

13.5%

2011

MLB

27

170.7

9

123

25

3.32

1.13

17.8%

3.6%

.296

67.6%

8.7%

2012

MLB

28

111

8

73

24

3.24

1.25

15.6%

5.1%

.295

77.1%

9.8%

Injuries aside let’s discuss his 2012 season. He threw less strikes, his strikeout rate dropped slightly (15.6% from 17.8%), his walk percentage increased slightly (5.1% from
3.6%), and his GB% dropped five percentage points. Despite the decline, the quality of his pitches remained intact. The likelihood of him missing time is greater than most pitchers, but when he’s in there he’ll pound the strike zone, generate ground balls and give fantasy owners a very healthy WHIP and ERA. Even though it’s counter intuitive, pitching in Arizona, a NL team, hurts his value slightly compared his previous home park in Oakland. I bet when his career is over his 2011 season will be the best in his career.

Tyler Skaggs

Throws: L | Age: 21 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | ADP: 116 (327)

Year

LVL

AGE

IP

W

SO

BB

ERA

WHIP

SO%

BB%

BABIP

LOB%

HR/FB

2011

AA

19

57.7

4

73

15

2.5

1.04

61.3%

12.6%

.370

74.5%

14.8%

2012

AA

20

69.7

5

71

21

2.84

1.21

24.7%

7.3%

.294

78.6%

13.3%

2012

AAA

20

52.7

4

45

16

2.91

1.23

21.2%

7.5%

.308

72.8%

10.3%

2012

MLB

20

29.3

1

21

13

5.83

1.47

15.8%

9.8%

.264

68.3%

18.2%

Unlike Wade Miley, Skaggs enters training camp as the Diamondbacks number one prospect (according to Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law) and therefore, comes with a lot of fantasy hype. Like Miley, Skaggs throws a ton of strikes and has a body to throw a lot of innings. Two years ago his fastball velocity ticked up where he’s now sitting in the low 90s and can touch 94 mph. Even though he sits in the low 90s, his delivery makes the batters feel like its two to three mph faster than what it really is. His curveball is his best secondary pitch. It’s a traditional 12-6 curveball that has excellent depth and can range between 74-78 mph. His changeup will flash plus (above average) with good fading action. If he can improve his command of either his fastball or if the changeup can become a true 60 pitch he could be a high end number three starter, which is the highest of any pitcher on the Diamondbacks.

Now it’s time to unveil my rankings:

  1. Tyler Skaggs
  2. Ian Kennedy
  3. Brandon McCarthy
  4. Trevor Cahill
  5. Wade Miley
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The Fantasy Journal: Anthony Rizzo and Chase Headley

by Matt Commins Posted on February 5, 2013

Yesterday I completed my first mock draft; a 15-team NFBC mixed league style mock with standard rosters with five outfielders, one corner infield (CI), one middle infield (MI), two catchers, and nine pitching position slots. In every mock draft players will go earlier or later based on every owner’s evaluation cheat sheet. I wanted to highlight two players that went high in my mock draft as well as have high ADPs that are too high at Mock Draft Central. Please note the format for the “ADP” section reads as follows: ADP: positional draft position (overall draft position). For example, Anthony Rizzo is currently the 9TH first baseman being taken and is going 75th overall.

Anthony Rizzo
Bats: L | Age: 23 |Team: Cubs | Position: 1B | ADP: 9 (75)
During his first year in the majors (with the San Diego Padres) Rizzo clearly looked overwhelmed and it showed, striking out 30% of the time. He started 2012 in Triple-A and made the necessary adjustments to become more prepared for major league pitchers, specifically reducing the length in his swing. The adjustments paid off as he reduced his strike out rate 44% and increased contact his contact rate 17.5%. In only 368 major league plate appearances he had a slash line of .286/.342/.463 with 15 home runs. He’s being drafted as the 9th first baseman, which is too high. I believe is high ADP is based on taking the rates and multiplying them by 600 plate appearances. For example, if he had 660 plate appearances he would have had 27 home runs with 86 RBI and 80 runs. He’s currently being drafted ahead of Freddie Freeman, Eric Hosmer and Ike Davis. I have all three of those players higher in my personal ranks. I would think fantasy owners would learn from the mistakes that were made with all the hype surrounding Brett Lawrie and Desmond Jennings last year. His overall ceiling could be in the low 30s, but he still has a long way to go before reaching that power potential. I have Rizzo as my 16th first baseman because I want to see him do it for a full season before I draft him in the first ten rounds.

Chase Headley
Bats: R | Age: 29 |Team: Padres | Position: 3B | ADP: 6 (51)
Before 2012 the most home runs Headley had in any season (majors or minors) was 20, back in 2007 in Double-AA. Most of Headley’s fantasy value came from a monster second half, where he posted a .308 AVG, 23 HRs, 73 RBI and 56 runs. Petco suppresses a lot of his fantasy potential, but if he gets traded, he has the ability to be an elite third baseman. With a 21.4% HR/FB rate his 31 HRs were fluky and will most likely regress. However, can he hit 12-16 home runs? Yes. If you can draft Headley at the right price he can provide a solid return for your fantasy team, but I’m almost certain someone will see the 31 HRs and draft him earlier than he should go.

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