Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

I consider myself a solid 60 grade fantasy baseball player. It’s an inevitable that players with inflated egos, like myself, will look to play for big money. There are two major websites players can play for serious money: CBS and NFBC. The question I’m debating is which one to choose. I’ve played on CBS before for small potatoes ($30 buy-in) and have come in second place a few times. I’ve had pretty good luck, never experiencing collusion. My buddy has won one league and the process of collecting his winnings was time intensive. He had to wait a month to get his paper work, then had to get the paperwork notarized, then had to wait six weeks to receive his winnings. I’ve never played at NFBC before but I’ve heard good things in the Fantasy Hour Facebook Community.

Every eye tracking report I’ve read suggest online readers love tables, images, charts or any other way to process information in the shortest amount of time possible. So I created a table (below) that summarizes what I’m about to talk about. NFBC has the biggest stakes with a buy-ins as high as $1,500. NFBC has 20% rake compared to CBS taking 40%, which make the payouts smaller in CBS. Also, if you interested in having in-person drafts NFBC offers drafts in Las Vegas, Chicago and New York. Be forewarned, if you want to play, the buy-in is going to be over $1K.

The biggest difference in gameplay is CBS allows trades while NFBC does not. NFBC does not allow trades in an effort to minimize collusion, which could be a problem, especially for higher stake leagues. Another step NFBC takes to minimize collusion is to create leagues randomly. For example, NFBC randomly draws the name of participants for each league in each city, so there is no way two “friends” can request to be in the same league. So if you’re looking to play with a buddy, CBS is the spot for you. Another major twist is the use of FAAB (free agent acquisition budget) for NFBC leagues. If you play fantasy football you’ve heard of FAAB before. Basically, each owner is given a budget and each week owners submit bids in order to pick up free agents. FAAB is mandatory for every NFBC league while CBS uses the traditional waiver system where any player is available at all times. It looks as though NFBC doesn’t have a mobile app to manage rosters, which can be another sticking point for some owners. Lastly, NFBC allows owners to change their lineups twice a week instead of only once at CBS. NFBC allows owners to update their hitters on Monday’s and Friday’s while pitchers can only be updated once a week.

So what hosting website am I going to use this year? NFBC. I was very intrigued about going to Las Vegas with a buddy and playing in a high stakes NFBC League, but I’ve never played in league with FAAB and no trading of players. I’m going to play in a 2-3 lower stake NFBC leagues to get a feel for the format. If I do well, you may see me in Las Vegas next year. I’m also going to play in one CBS League with a friend of mine, but if my buddy wasn’t playing, I wouldn’t give CBS any of my money. CBS takes too big of rake for my liking.

Last season, Atlanta Braves starter Mike Minor’s performance varied dramatically before and after the All-Star break. 

Below are heat maps of the opposing hitter’s slugging percentage before and after the All-Star break. It doesn’t take a statistician or a scout to see why he got pummeled in the first-half of the season.

Before I started to dive into the statistical data I remembered a fantastic article Ben Lindbergh wrote at Baseball Prospectus where he had three theories for Minor’s resurgence after the All-Star break:

1. He mixed up his pitches, specifically using the curveball and slider more.
2. The fastball became a better pitch.
3. His luck improved.

Sequencing pitches is necessary for any starter to be successful in the big leagues. Without it, big league hitters will have the advantage because they will:

A) Be comfortable in the batter’s box.

B) Allow them to more accurately guess which pitch will be thrown next.

There are exceptions of course; Mariano Rivera’s wizard pitch, the cutter. It’s the only pitch he throws. Everyone in the stadium knows it, but he’s still able to be extremely effective.

Before the All-Star break, Minor threw his fastball and changeup, his best secondary pitch, 75.77% of the time with the remainder going to the curveball and slider —13.3% and 10.93% respectively. In Ben’s article he quotes a scout who said Minor became more effective because he began incorporating his curveball and slider more. He/she was correct…somewhat. After the All-Star break he threw the fastball and changeup only 72.4% of the time. The result of mixing his pitches was he became more effective in every sense of the way; hitters made weaker contact, they struck out more and whiffed (swinged and missed) more.

The key to Minor’s resurgence was incorporating the slider more. Not only did he throw it more, he threw it more regardless of the count. The table below shows the pitch frequency and batting average by count type. PCs represent pitchers counts and HCs represent hitters counts.

The heat map below shows the slugging percentage of his the fastball, changeup, and curveball after he started throwing the slider more.

We’re in an age of instant gratification. Whether it’s buying online, communicating with our friends through social media (except for Google Hangout; no one’s using that), or instantly streaming a fantastic show like White Collar on your TV, everything comes to us instantly. As fans and fantasy owners we see prospects, such as Stephen Strasburg, dominant in the majors immediately after their call up. Don’t forget generational prospects like Strasburg are very rare.

Most prospects require time and fail before they ultimately reach or come as close as possible to their ceiling. Once in the majors they have to make adjustments. Once they’ve made them, the league will make further adjustments and the player will have to make adjustments on those adjustments. Mike Minor learned he couldn’t rely on only his fastball and changeup to get outs. I love prospects who make adjustments because it shows #want. For 2013, I like his chances of continuing the performance he showed after the All-Star break.

Fantasy owners drafting first overall in 2013 are going to be tasked with answering a very important question, who to take with that first pick? Most industry pundits would agree the three most qualified players are Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, and Miguel Cabrera. If you think Matt Kemp deserves to be in the conversation then you’re team is going to lose, but hopefully my analysis pulls the curtain over your eyes. Each player has their own pros and cons as to why they deserve the selection, but like with closers in Major League Bullpens, there can be only one. The original player profiles I wrote can be found at BaseballAnalytics.org here and here.

Mike Trout

Pros: five tool player; biggest upside; lineup top heavy; hasn’t reached physical peak; didn’t play a full season in 2012; makeup; Josh Hamilton; outfield depth

Cons: only has done it once; lowest floor; plays in a pitcher friendly park; lack of RBI opportunities; batting average may have been BABIP driven, sophomore slump; AL West ballparks

Analysis: Is there anything Trout can’t do? He was so good he received all 28 first-place votes for Rookie of the Year, becoming only the eighth player in history to accomplish that feat. Should he have won the MVP? Yes, but that’s another matter all in itself. One strike against Trout as the first pick is his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was extremely high and unsustainable. But is it? Trout is an elite runner, which is conducive for higher BABIPs because he can beat out a lot of infield hits with his speed. Can he repeat 30 home runs again? The Angels ballpark is the sixth worst stadium in baseball for home run power and his HR/FB rate of 21.6% should regress (a normal HR/FB rate is 9.5%). However, according to Baseball America’s 2012 Prospect Handbook the scouting grade they gave his power potential was in the high 20s and low 30s (65 grade for the scouts out there). Supposing Trout only hits 15-20 home runs, he’ll still provide elite stolen base production, allowing fantasy owners more flexibility during their drafts.

Ryan Braun

Pros: Miller Park, NL Central; power to all fields; durable; consistent; outfield depth

Cons: limited 30+ steal track record; Rickie Weeks; limited ceiling; Astros move to AL; inflated HR/FB rate

Analysis: Last year I stayed away from Braun in all my drafts because of an irrational fear he would regress due to the loss of Prince Fielder and the off the field incident involving a 50 game suspension. I believed he would be walked more and see fewer pitches to hit because he didn’t have protection in the lineup. I was 100% wrong because he put up better numbers than he did during his MVP season in 2011. One of the strikes against him is strikeout rate. Last year his strikeout rate (18.9%) was the highest it’s been since 2008. If this trend continues his batting average ceiling could be in the low .300s instead of the .320s. Another strike is he just turned 29, which may impact on his stolen base potential. Instead of grabbing 30 bags, he may only steal bases in the low 20s. In order to justify the first overall pick will require him to steal 25+ bases again. Braun had a career high in home runs with 41, but that coincided with a career high in his HR/FB rate (22.8%). His average HR/FB rate for his career is 18.8%, so if he regresses back to his average he’ll be a 30-34 home player instead of a 41 homer player.

Miguel Cabrera

Pros: durable; consistent; Victor Martinez; AL Central

Cons: four category player; makeup; third base eligibility; defense; inflated HR/FB rate

Analysis: Cabrera’s Triple Crown resulted in him receiving the MVP award. He is the model of consistency, putting up great numbers in four out of five traditional scoring categories every year since the age of 21. The key word in that statement was four. He’s a great player, but he only helps fantasy owners in four categories. There were more stolen bases attempts in 2011 than any time in the previous 12 years. In 2012 there was only a slight decrease (3.8%) in steals compared to 2011. Stolen bases are up. Players who don’t provide steals have to provide elite production in the other four categories in order to be a first round pick, which Cabrera can do. However, drafting Cabrera changes the way fantasy owners build their teams during the draft. For example, suppose it’s the middle of the fifth round and the Miguel Cabrera owner is debating between grabbing Michael Bourn, Pablo Sandoval or Billy Butler. Maybe the owner passes on Bourn. Eventually the owner will have to take speed player, who will most likely contribute to only one or two categories, such as Ben Revere, Juan Pierre, Darin Mastroianni at the end of drafts to make up for not taking a Ryan Braun or a Mike Trout. Another strike is third base pretty deep for the first time in a while. I currently have Will Middlebrooks, who has the potential to hit 30 home runs and 100 RBI, as my 17^th rated third baseman. Cabrera had a career best with 44 home runs last year. The power surge was aided by career high in his HR/FB rate (23%). His career average HR/FB rate is 18.9% so expecting another 40+ home runs season is a stretch. What helps Cabrera is the return of Victor Martinez, who missed the entire 2012 season with a torn ACL. Martinez is replacing the free swinging machine known as Delmon Young in the lineup so there could Cabrera could score more runs.

Verdict
The decision ultimately came down between Braun and Trout. Braun is safer, but has the lower ceiling. Trout has the higher ceiling, but has only played at high level once. So who is my number pick? Trout is my man because of the five tools and his makeup. I define makeup as does a player have the desire to maximize all of his baseball tools. Now, that’s not to say Cabrera and Braun have bad makeup, but when I see Trout play it’s obvious he’s having a blast playing baseball. Trout has the baseball IQ, bat control, plate discipline and overall tools that will allow him to maintain and possibly surpass what he did last year.