Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

After some extensive Googling I couldn’t find any data about historical batting averages on the three hit types: fly balls, ground balls and line drives. So I logged into Tru Media Networks awesome baseball analytics tool and found those numbers. The table below  shows the batting averages on the three hit types since 2008.

There’s been a lot of chatter about how the Oakland Athletics may have the most positional depth of any other team in the American League.  With the recent acquisitions of Jed Lowrie, Chris Young, John Jaso, and Hiroyuki Nakajima I tend to agree with that assessment. With so many players vying for a select few positions there are numerous lineups Bob Melvin could have on opening day. Below is my projected lineup based on everything I’ve read about the A’s so far.

MLBDepthCharts.com has Jed Lowrie batting in second, who’s the second best candidate for the job. Last year proved Melvin is one of the smartest tacticians and in-game managers in the league. I have to believe he can’t have Jaso’s career OBP of .359 at the bottom of the lineup.

Below is their projected lineup on the last day of the year:

Contrary to what the A’s are saying, Lowrie should be the starting shortstop, which would leave the newly acquired Hiroyuki Nakajima, whose arm is more suited for second base, as either the starting second baseman or the utility infielder.

The three best defenders in the outfield are Reddick, Cespedes, and Young which is why I have them in the starting lineup. This isn’t a knock on Crisp, but his range has decreased and his arm has always been well below average.

This is the year Grant Green makes it big leagues and becomes a contributor. His only above average tool is his hit tool. I’ve seen a few times in Triple-A Sacramento; he has a quick smooth swing that consistent finds the barrel of the bat. If he was given a full time job he could hit .300 with 10-12 home runs. Defensively, he doesn’t have a home in that he doesn’t excel at any one position. He was originally drafted as shortstop, but the A’s moved him to center field in the middle of 2011. In 2012 he played everywhere in the infield (except first base) and the outfield.

I’m not a fan of Weeks’ because I don’t like players whose primary tool is speed. One word to summarize his 2012 season is regressed. He began the 2012 season by struggling offensively, which bled over to his defense. In terms of his approach it was as if he tried to hit more power rather than making contact and legging out hits. I have Weeks and Green in the starting lineups at the end of the year because they’re the future for the A’s infield. Among all the infielders who could conceivably be big league ready at the start of 2014, Green and Weeks have the highest ceiling of any player. Jed Lowrie is a free agent at the end of the year and Josh Donaldson is a fringe major leaguer. Scott Sizemore is the big wild card because like Green, his only plus tool is the hit tool. If he can hit as well as he did in his brief stint with the A’s in 2011 he could the long term solution at second base.

What’s most intriguing is if the team somehow falters they have a lot of assets that can be traded at the trade deadline: Grant Balfour, Coco Crisp, Seth Smith, Chris Young, and Jed Lowrie. What all these players have in common is this the last year of their contracts, which makes them more attractive commodities for another teams. In the offseason they turned down a trade of Brett Anderson for Wil Myers, which shocked me because it seems like a no brainer to me, but that shows me they believe they have a real chance of winning the AL West again.

With pitchers and catchers already in camp it’s getting closer to draft day for a lot of fantasy owners. Like last year pitching is the deepest category of any other position. With so many players available it can be hard to navigate through all the players. Below are four starting pitchers who could have the biggest fantasy impact. Please note the format for the “ADP” section reads as follows: ADP: positional draft position (overall draft position). For example, Tyler Skaggs is currently the 116^th starting pitcher being taken and is going 327^th overall. 

Tyler Skaggs
Throws: L | Age: 21 |Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP | ADP: 116 (327)

Unlike Wade Miley, Skaggs enters training camp as the Diamondbacks number one prospect (according to Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law) and therefore, comes with a lot of fantasy hype. Like Miley, Skaggs throws a ton of strikes and has a body to throw a lot of innings. Two years ago his fastball velocity ticked up; he’s now sitting in the low 90s and can touch 94 mph. Even though he sits in the low 90s, his delivery makes the batters feel like its two to three mph faster than what it really is. His curveball is his best secondary pitch. It’s a traditional 12-6 curveball that has excellent depth and can range between 74-78 mph. His changeup will flash plus (above average) with good fading action. If he can improve his command of either his fastball or if the changeup can become a true 60 pitch he could be a high end number three starter.

Chris Archer
Throws: R | Age: 24 | Team: Rays | Position: SP | ADP: 106 (295)

In a brief stint in the majors Archer showed flashes of how good and how effectively wild he could be. He has plus fastball with plus-plus (well above average) velocity and movement with average command. He throws two sliders. The first slider is 86-87 that has excellent tilt and depth. He also throws an additional 81-82 slider that looks more like a curveball than a slider. His changeup can flash average at times. He has nothing left to prove in Triple-A so hopefully he begins the year in the majors. The problem with Archer has been command. There are times he has no command and times where he looks brilliant. There’s mixed reactions among scouts. Some believe he’ll be an elite bullpen arm while others see a number three starter. If he makes the starting rotation he’ll generate a lot of strikeouts, but there will be times he gets hit hard. If you draft him, just set it and forget it.

Dan Straily
Throws: R | Age: 24 | Team: Athletics | Position: SP | ADP: 108 (299)

Straily, the minor league strikeout leader found his way to the A’s starting rotation in early August. He performed fairly well in seven starts posting a 3.89 ERA and striking out nearly 19% of hitters. His fastball sits between 91-93 mph and can touch 94. Both his slider and changeup are both plus pitches that can miss bats, but the difference between Straily and Archer and Skaggs is the quality of their pitches; Archer and Skaggs’ pitches can miss bats on just on the quality of the pitches while Straily relies on command to generate outs. If Straily doesn’t have command he can become very hittable.  I hope he makes the big league club to start the year because he’s a better pitcher than both A.J. Griffin and Tommy Milone, but unless there’s an injury, Straily will find himself in Triple-A. Also, it’s not a given Bartolo Colon will look good in Spring Training either.

Julio Teheran
Throws: R | Age: 22 | Team: Braves | Position: SP | ADP: ND (ND)

Some fans could say Teheran’s 2012 season (in Triple-A) was a disappointment, but remember he was only 21, an extremely young age for the level. Most prospects his age are in A-ball at 21. His season may have been a disappointment, but maybe expectations were too high to begin with. He has a plus fastball that sits at 91-94 mph, touching 95. His changeup works between 79-82 mph with late movement. His curveball is the key for Teheran; last year he didn’t have great success commanding it. It looks as though he’ll start the year in the Braves rotation. If he does, there will be a lot of growing pains.

Matt Harvey
Throws: R | Age: 24 | Team: Mets | Position: SP | ADP: 53 (212)

Matt Harvey is really good; so good he struck out nearly 29% of the batters he faced. He’s aggressive and attacks hitters with his plus-plus fastball that can sit 92-95 mph and top out at 98 mph if he needs it. His two-seam fastball is an extremely effective pitch as it has a lot of arm side movement. His slider, thrown 80-84 mph, is his next best pitch with good horizontal movement. He also has a cutter/slider that that can be extremely effective on both sides of the plate. There was a good amount of luck with a .262 BABIP and 81.3% LOB% last year. The counter argument is since he strikes out so many hitters the historical means do not apply. He can be pitch inefficient at times; preferring to throw a chase pitch out of the zone instead of going after hitters. However, he’s still young and has a lot to learn.