Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

With Chris Carpenter likely missing the entire 2013 season, it provides an opportunity for one of three players to take his place. Before the Carpenter news, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly all looked to be long shots to make the Cardinals opening day roster. Now it appears any of them have a legitimate chance to make the rotation on opening day. Below are player profiles about each player respectively. Please note the format for the “ADP” section reads as follows: ADP: positional draft position (overall draft position). For example, Shelby Miller  is currently the 67^th starting pitcher being taken and is going 255^th overall. All ADPs are from Mock Draft Central.

Shelby Miller
Throws: R | Age: 22 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP | ADP: 67 (255)

To begin the 2012 season, Miller’s first 17 starts in Triple-A were less than perfect; he posted a 6.17 ERA (due to a lack of command). However, during his last 10 starts he dominated hitters with a 2.88 ERA with 70 strikeouts in only 59 innings. In only 13 big league innings he continued to flash his dominance striking out nearly 30% of the batters he faced. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and can touch 98 if he needs it. The fastball has good sink and boring action that jumps on hitters because of his extension. His changeup and curveball (looks like a slider), can both miss a ton of bats. As the 2012 season wore on he metamorphosed from a “grip it and rip it” thrower to pitcher who relied less on the fastball and sequenced his secondary pitches more frequently. If he begins the year in the Cardinals rotation he’s a top 30 fantasy starting pitcher.

Trevor Rosenthal
Throws: R | Age: 23 | Team: Cardinals | Position: RP/SP | ADP: 44 (299)

Rosenthal began the year in Double-A as a low end prospect, but at the end of the year he was getting extremely important outs during the playoffs, where he struck out 15 batters in 8.67 innings for the Cardinals. His fastball is a legit 80 grade; in short bursts it can be 97-100 mph, but if he’s starting it takes a dip, but not that much (93-97). He didn’t use his curveball, changeup or slider very much in the majors so it’s difficult to evaluate. It’s mid-February right now and his place on the Cardinals roster is in question. He could be in the rotation or the bullpen. If he starts the year as a starter, he’s a borderline top 35-40 starting pitcher. If he joins the bullpen he’s going to be an elite closer.

 Joe Kelly
Throws: R | Age: 25 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP | ADP: N/A (N/A)

Of the three pitchers vying for the last rotation spot Kelly has the lowest ceiling. His command comes and goes and secondary offerings (changeup and curveball) are average and can look solid average at times. He does have a major league fastball that sits 92-94 when he’s starting; it can reach the upper 90s in bursts coming out of the pen. However, because of the lack of a consistent, quality breaking ball left handers will hit him hard; lefties hit .318 against Kelly last year. If he makes the rotation he’s maybe a top 60-65 starting pitcher; it’s only a matter of time before Shelby Miller takes his spot though.

Desmond Jennings
Bats: R | Age: 26 |Team: Rays | ADP:  25 (82)

Jennings didn’t live up to the pre-season hype, only hitting .246, 13 home runs and 31 stolen bases. Before the All-Star Break he put up a slash line of .231/.298/.353 and afterward he put up a slash line of .258/.329/.419. The primary cause for his resurgence was he started to become more aggressive and starting pulling the ball the more. The image below shows the hit charts before and after the All-Star Break.

What’s dangerous about this approach it leaves the hitter vulnerable to balls on the outer half of the plate. Most players who try to pull outside pitches roll over on them and become ground balls and therefore, outs. Want to see some visual proof?

During the first half of the year Jennings hit more balls on the outer half of the plate to the opposite field, resulting in a .233 batting average. In the second half, he had a .202 batting average. If he doesn’t make an adjustment this year I don’t see any major improvements coming in 2013.

With the loss of a lot of power from their lineup, the Rays are going to have to find different ways to generate runs. One way to increase runs is by stealing more bases. Last year Jennings, with his plus-plus speed, was 31 for 33 in stolen base attempts. If he gets on base a little more, (he has a career minor league OBP of .381) he could be a 40+ stolen base player. Also, if Evan Longoria can stay healthy for a full year, Jennings could score 90+ runs as well. Jennings has the superior physical tools necessary to be an elite fantasy player if he continues to make adjustments.

He’s currently going as the 25^th outfielder, ahead of Josh Willingham and Angel Pagan, which is about where he should go. However, he’s going 82^nd overall, ahead of Ike Davis, Eric Hosmer and Gio Gonzalez. I would rather have all three of those players instead of Jennings.

After some extensive Googling I couldn’t find any data about historical batting averages on the three hit types: fly balls, ground balls and line drives. So I logged into Tru Media Networks awesome baseball analytics tool and found those numbers. The table below  shows the batting averages on the three hit types since 2008.