Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Not every team can have elite players at every position. As a draft progress it’s inevitable every fantasy team is going to have holes somewhere in starting lineups. The goal of every fantasy owner at the end of drafts is to try to fill those holes with players who can provide superior value or at least provide a positive return on their draft position.

One way to do that is to find breakout candidates (Fernando Rodney for example). Another way is to draft a pair of players to act as one player who can provide great value in the aggregate. This strategy involves taking players with dramatic home-road splits who play their home games in extremely favorable hitter’s parks. According to StatCorner.com the top five hitter’s parks are: Colorado, Cincinnati, Chicago White Sox, Texas, Milwaukee and Arizona.

I propose where you draft two hitter’s from one of the six aforementioned teams and start them only when they play at home. The reason why you start them only at home is because they’re home-road splits indicate they’re greatly benefiting from playing in their home ballpark. This strategy works best in daily leagues or leagues where you can set your lineup twice a week. Below are some players that would perfect fit for this strategy:

Suppose a fantasy owner only started Murphy and Ross at home last year. What kind of player did that owner receive?

What about if someone owned Fowler and Murphy?

In both scenarios that fantasy owner would have had a top 30 outfielder. Now, what about if both players are at home? Play the “best” of the two. The problem with the strategy is there’s more risk because the fantasy owner is relying on two players to stay healthy compared to only one. This strategy is even more high risk in auction leagues fantasy owners will have to get multiple players.

Today I’m watching my first Spring Training A’s game with great anticipation and excitement. I’m curious to see how every looks after a long off season; whose in shape? whose lost weight? who got fat? The biggest surprise I saw was Daric Barton. Check out his new beard. He looks as if he could be the fifth member of ZZ Top.

Below are my top 10 middle relievers I’m currently targeting in drafts. I favor players who a better opportunity to becoming a closer over their skill set. However, towards the end of the list I put players who are so good I would draft them because of their superior skill set. For a more up to date information please checkout my closer and reliever rankings.

1. Bobby Parnell, NYM – he would be the closer if the season started today; Frank Francisco is already having elbow soreness; I never trust any pitcher experiencing elbow problems because it’s only a matter of time before they get hurt
2. Ernesto Frieri, LAA – with Ryan Madson currently on the mend, Frieri would be the closer if the season started today
3. Ryan Cook, OAK – he would be the closer if the season started today as Grant Balfour is still recovering from surgery
4. Sergio Santos, TOR – Casey Janssen’s shoulder isn’t “100%” which leaves the door open for Santos; don’t forget that Santos struck out 31% of batters in 2011
5. Jim Henderson, MIL– John Axford was really bad last year and could have a short leash; don’t let the ERA fool you, Henderson struck out more than 34% of batters last year
6. Kenley Jansen, LAD – this is more of an indictment of Brandon League than anything else; Jansen is not without his flaws, specifically with his health
   
7. David Robertson, NYY – I have no idea how good Mariano Rivera will be; Rivera is coming off a torn ACL and is 43 years old; if Rivera falters Robertson could be the second best fantasy closer
8. Jake McGee, TB – for the past eight years the Rays have had someone different lead the team in saves; Fernando Rodney is being taken as the second closer off the board, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodney is traded  at the trade deadline if the Rays are out of playoff contention
9. David Hernandez, ARI – in the past two years Hernandez has been the best middle reliever in the game; if something were to happen to J.J. Putz my guess is Heath Bell becomes the closer because “he’s done it before,” but hopefully smarter heads prevail
   
10. Aaron Crow, KC – Greg Holland enters the year as the full time closer and having Crow this high is more of a hunch