Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Brandon Maurer’s box score looks bad; 0.67 innings and six earned runs. I own him in all leagues because I thought he could miss a good amount of bats and he would pitch the majority of his games in the friendly confines of the AL West. He started the game throwing 94 mph fastballs, which gave the illusion this could be a promising start. However, that quickly faded as he hung a slider to Jose Altuve, the leadoff hitter, then proceeded to either consistently miss his location or throw strikes in the middle of the zone. He eventually got pulled after getting hit in the right leg by a line drive. The raw ingredients are there for him to be a quality starting pitcher, but he needs a lot of refinement of his command. He should be dropped in all one year leagues.

Despite the poor box score Roberto Hernandez was fairly dominant. A lot of the hits came from weak contact that snuck between the defenders. He hit two batters, which is a good thing as he was trying to work and control the inner half of the strike zone. The 18.3% strikeout is legit; he throws a changeup/splitter that perfectly compliments the sinker-slider. Like I said a few days Hernandez is someone you should get because easily could have only allowed 1-2 ERs instead of the 5 last night.

Lance Lynn looked like the Lynn we saw the first half of last year; his fastball velocity averaged 92 mph and touched 95 a couple of times. In his first start his fastball topped at 92 so needless to say I’m glad his velocity was back. In his first start he fell off to the first base side towards the end of his delivery, but last night he was finishing his pitches and looked a lot better this go-round.

Tim Lincecum had trouble commanding his fastball the entire game; he walked the pitcher twice. After the first time through the order the Rockies hitters were swinging at the first pitch because they knew it would be something offspeed. At times he looked very dominant, but it was only in short bursts (a couple of pitches at a time). During the latter innings he was visibly frustrated with his pitch location.

Jarrod Parker didn’t look right the entire game. His fastball velocity looked fine (93-95 mph) and he was able to locate his changeup in and out of the zone. Throughout the game he was constantly stretching on the mound; Athletics Pitching Coach Curt Young made at least four visits to mound to talk to him. I think there’s something wrong with him because he hasn’t looked like his normal self in his first two starts of the year.

Aaron Crow got the save last night, but Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera were both unavailable. Holland is still the closer, but Herrera is the next pitcher in line for the job.

Roy Halladay’s fantasy owners who were hoping for a bounce back start with a good matchup against the Mets were disappointed as he had another disaster outing last night. In short bursts he looked better than his first start, but he wasn’t able to throw his secondary pitches for strikes. After the 3rd inning he was clearly laboring. He reminded me of a high school freshman giving his first presentation about how Holden Caulfield was nothing more than a whiny kid who thought the world revolved around him in Mr. Bisson’s English Class. I didn’t buy Halladay in the preseason and I’m not buying now. If I were in a 12-team NFBC league I would drop him and find a better option.

Clay Buchholz had another impressive box score yesterday, going seven innings striking out eight and giving up zero runs. I watched the game last night and he wasn’t as dominant as the box score suggests. He missed up in the zone a lot and there were at least three fly balls that were caught at the warning track. Buchholz has a history of having several great starts in a row before imploding. During the past two seasons he’s made 43 starts and in 21 of those starts he had a game ERA 4.39 or higher. That’s 49% of his starts! When you start him you’re playing with fire because at any time he could put up a four innings, seven earned runs and 12 hits outing.

After his first bad start to begin the year I confidently started Jeremy Hellickson this week despite the poor matchup. Hellickson didn’t pitch as poorly as the box score would indicate. The first run he allowed came on an error Sam Fuld made in the outfield. The home runs he allowed were a function of missing up in the zone with fastballs. His next starts are @ Boston, Oakland, Yankees, and @ Kansas City – all pretty good matchups. I’m not worried at all about Hellickson.

After Ervin Santana’s first start I wrote I was extremely down about the decrease in his fastball velocity. Well, yesterday the velocity was up, way up. His fastball velocity averaged 93 mph with a max velocity of 96 mph. Not only did his velocity increase, he had great command of the strike zone with his secondary pitches. Compare and contrast the pitch location of his pitches in the first start against the second start. This is a great time to buy low as he could be ready to return to his pre-2012 levels.

I just finished watching Jose Fernandez’s dazzling debut against the Mets where he struck out eight batters in five innings. Fernandez is one of the rare pitchers to not pitch above Double-A  before getting the call up to the Majors. During most of the game, especially when pitching out of the windup, he looked absolutely dominant, making Big League hitters look foolish. If you don’t believe me checkout the last strike of all of his strikeouts.

Image Source: Baseball Prospectus

He featured a fastball, curveball, changeup and slurve, a slider-curveball hybrid. The fastball, thrown in the mid-90s with explosive movement, had whiff rate of 28%, 16^th among starters. The secondary offering he used the most was the curveball. It had good depth, played well with the fastball. Most importantly, he threw it for strikes and for swinging strikes out of the zone. He only threw a couple of slurves and changeups, but showed excellent potential. What impressed me the most was his poise and that he called his own game; there were multiple shots of him shaking off Rob Brantly.

Not everything was roses and sunshine about his start though. He struggled when he pitched from the stretch; his control was looser and lost some power in the delivery. To be honest, this is true for most pitchers, but it is still something he’ll have to work on.

If you’re in a dynasty league he’s a must own, but let’s talk about his fantasy potential for one year leagues. There’s no doubt Fernandez has all the ingredients to be a fantasy stud, but that’s not going to happen in 2013. Although he had an impressive debut, it’s easy to forget there wasn’t much information about him the Mets hitters could use to prepare for the game. I guarantee you after a couple of starts the League will adjust to him and he’ll have to make further adjustments, which will be more difficult because he’s still trying to refine his secondary offerings. Yesterday he had a pitch cap of 85 pitches, which means he’ll be lucky to pitch beyond the 5^th inning, therefore lowering the likelihood he will be able to generate wins. The Marlins have said they’re capping him to 150 to 165 innings, which will allow him to pitch until late July, early August before being shut down. On Sunday Fernandez will be available in NFBC Leagues and I’ll make a bid of $15, but I believe he’ll go for at least double that. He should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues with a deep bench, but if you’re in a standard 10-team ESPN league with three bench spots I don’t recommend picking him up.