Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

It’s ten days into the season and it’s time to check the waiver wire to find any golden nuggets. Some of us are looking to fill an injury void (Zack Greinke owners), to replace a poor performers (Brandon Maurer owners) or to simply upgrade our teams. Regardless of the reason there are players that can help your team right now. Please note the percentages I refer to are from NFBC Leagues.

Hitters

Chris Heisey, OF, Reds: I was surprised to see his ownership percentage was only 58%. He has an every day job and has 20+ home run power. He’s never been given the opportunity to play every day, but if you total the last three seasons in the Majors you’ll see he hit 33 home runs with a slash line of .259/.315/.438 in only 909 plate appearances.

Matt Adams, 1B, Cardinals: This is a speculative add because he doesn’t have a full time job at the moment, but if Allen Craig or someone from the Cardinals outfield were to get hurt, Adams would be the every day first baseman (Craig would play in the outfield). Last year in Triple-A he had slugging percentage .624 with 18 home runs in only 67 games. The offensive potential is legit. He’s a must own for every Craig owner.

Evan Gattis, OF, Braves: He doesn’t have catcher eligibility yet, but he will in a week. The past few days he’s been batting cleanup and has not disappointed, posting a slash line of .391/.440/.826 in only 23 at-bats. Once Freddie Freeman comes off the DL Gattis will likely move to 6th in the order. Normally Gattis would be an instant add, but Brian McCann is expected to be back later this month. McCann coming back means nothing; McCann, 29 years old, is a free agent after this year and will no longer be in the Braves long term plans while Gattis, 26 years old, is very much in their long term plans. Also, the McCann that’s coming back isn’t the All-Star player, but the player who posted a slash line of .230/.300/.399 last year. If Gattis continues to hit, I can’t see the Braves sending him to the minors, even if his defense behind the plate needs refinement, because the only way to win their division and avoid the Wild Card game is to have the best 25 man roster possible.

Jordany Valdespin, OF, Mets: He’s not a great player, but it appears as though he’ll get the most playing time in center field. If that happens, he’ll bat leadoff, enabling him the opportunity to score a lot of runs and to steal 20+ bases; he 20 stolen bases between Triple-A and the Majors last year.

Lucas Duda, OF, Mets: With power being such a premium I was surprised to see he’s only owned in 68% of leagues. He has the raw power to 20-25 home runs with a batting average that won’t hurt your team. The Mets outfield is bad, but if they’re going to have any chance of winning they’re going to need Duda to reach his potential, which means he’ll get every chance to play every day and bat near the middle of the order.

Chris Parmelee, 1B, Twins: I wrote about him last week and I’m going to write about him again. In a week he’ll have OF eligibility, which only adds to his value. Parmelee can hit and hit for enough power to be a great replacement player.

Pitchers

Jose Fernandez, Marlins: He’s going to be owned after FAAB bidding concludes on Sunday. The question is how much to bid? I wrote a more extensive writeup here and there’s another really good writeup here. Bottom line is he’s good; really good, but there’s going to be bumps along the road and he will only pitch until late June/early August. I’ll bid $15 in my leagues, but I think he’ll go for at least three times that, which is too high for me.

Wily Peralta, Brewers: He’s a power pitcher who has the ability to log 200+ innings. He has a plus fastball and a plus slider that will allow him to generate a lot of strikeouts. Also, last year he had a 57% ground ball rate, which is really high, especially for a strikeout pitcher. He’ll be prone to blow up starts because his command can be loose at times.

Roberto Hernandez, Tampa Rays: I’ve written about him multiple times this year and his performances have been understated by his box scores. I’ve added him in all my leagues, but he’s only owned in 11% of leagues. He pitches in a great pitchers park and behind a defense that will catch all the ground balls he generates.

Chris Tillman flashed dominance in his start at Boston last night. During the first three innings he relied heavily on his fastball, throwing it 87% of the time. In the 4th and 5th he started using his curveball and changeup more often, which is when he started to look dominant. Why didn’t he use them earlier on in the game? He was only able to go 5.3 innings because of the pitch count. Throughout the game he had loose command of fastball, which caused his pitch count to be so high.

Dan Haren had a better outing compared to his first one. The box score of 5 innings and 10 hits wasn’t a true indicator of how well he pitched because two of the hits were fluky. A lot of the White Sox batters looked uncomfortable at the plate (i.e. they took bad swings). He showed a glimpse of the old Haren when he threw two consecutive splitters to get out of a bases loaded jam. That said, he would lose his command from batter to batter. He’s a long ways away from the vintage Haren, but he’s a spot starter in the right matchup.

Wade Davis looked a lot better than his first start of the year. He utilized his secondary pitches more – specifically throwing the curveball to begin more at-bats. His command of the fastball was still extremely loose, but in the 5th inning he showed a glimpse of being a viable fantasy starter; his breaking ball and changeup were sharp and was able to locate the fastball while changing speeds on his fastball.

Aaron Hicks looks lost at the plate; he can’t pick up the ball well. A week or two from now he’ll be in Triple-A.

Brad Peacock had a better outing than his first outing. This go-round he had better command of his fastball and utilized his curveball more. However, with the lack of a third pitch (changeup) and an out pitch his fantasy ceiling will be limited to spot starter in big ball parks; big ballparks because he’s extremely homer prone.

Tom Milone is not a good pitcher and yet people refer to his success as “magic” on twitter. Like Peacock, Milone is very homer prone and needs to pitch in a cavernous ballpark, like the Oakland Coliseum, to be effective as he has a below average fastball and relies on command and deception to get outs. In two years Milone will either be a loogy or out of the Majors.

Casper Wells was claimed by the Toronto Blue Jays, which probably means he’ll be the the 4th outfielder. Rajai Davis will probably see a dramatic decrease in playing time if he’s still on the roster a few days from now.

R.A. Dickey’s poor performance a few days ago could have been due to a cracked finger nail.