Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Aaron Crow got the save last night, but Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera were both unavailable. Holland is still the closer, but Herrera is the next pitcher in line for the job.

Roy Halladay’s fantasy owners who were hoping for a bounce back start with a good matchup against the Mets were disappointed as he had another disaster outing last night. In short bursts he looked better than his first start, but he wasn’t able to throw his secondary pitches for strikes. After the 3rd inning he was clearly laboring. He reminded me of a high school freshman giving his first presentation about how Holden Caulfield was nothing more than a whiny kid who thought the world revolved around him in Mr. Bisson’s English Class. I didn’t buy Halladay in the preseason and I’m not buying now. If I were in a 12-team NFBC league I would drop him and find a better option.

Clay Buchholz had another impressive box score yesterday, going seven innings striking out eight and giving up zero runs. I watched the game last night and he wasn’t as dominant as the box score suggests. He missed up in the zone a lot and there were at least three fly balls that were caught at the warning track. Buchholz has a history of having several great starts in a row before imploding. During the past two seasons he’s made 43 starts and in 21 of those starts he had a game ERA 4.39 or higher. That’s 49% of his starts! When you start him you’re playing with fire because at any time he could put up a four innings, seven earned runs and 12 hits outing.

After his first bad start to begin the year I confidently started Jeremy Hellickson this week despite the poor matchup. Hellickson didn’t pitch as poorly as the box score would indicate. The first run he allowed came on an error Sam Fuld made in the outfield. The home runs he allowed were a function of missing up in the zone with fastballs. His next starts are @ Boston, Oakland, Yankees, and @ Kansas City – all pretty good matchups. I’m not worried at all about Hellickson.

After Ervin Santana’s first start I wrote I was extremely down about the decrease in his fastball velocity. Well, yesterday the velocity was up, way up. His fastball velocity averaged 93 mph with a max velocity of 96 mph. Not only did his velocity increase, he had great command of the strike zone with his secondary pitches. Compare and contrast the pitch location of his pitches in the first start against the second start. This is a great time to buy low as he could be ready to return to his pre-2012 levels.

I just finished watching Jose Fernandez’s dazzling debut against the Mets where he struck out eight batters in five innings. Fernandez is one of the rare pitchers to not pitch above Double-A  before getting the call up to the Majors. During most of the game, especially when pitching out of the windup, he looked absolutely dominant, making Big League hitters look foolish. If you don’t believe me checkout the last strike of all of his strikeouts.

Image Source: Baseball Prospectus

He featured a fastball, curveball, changeup and slurve, a slider-curveball hybrid. The fastball, thrown in the mid-90s with explosive movement, had whiff rate of 28%, 16^th among starters. The secondary offering he used the most was the curveball. It had good depth, played well with the fastball. Most importantly, he threw it for strikes and for swinging strikes out of the zone. He only threw a couple of slurves and changeups, but showed excellent potential. What impressed me the most was his poise and that he called his own game; there were multiple shots of him shaking off Rob Brantly.

Not everything was roses and sunshine about his start though. He struggled when he pitched from the stretch; his control was looser and lost some power in the delivery. To be honest, this is true for most pitchers, but it is still something he’ll have to work on.

If you’re in a dynasty league he’s a must own, but let’s talk about his fantasy potential for one year leagues. There’s no doubt Fernandez has all the ingredients to be a fantasy stud, but that’s not going to happen in 2013. Although he had an impressive debut, it’s easy to forget there wasn’t much information about him the Mets hitters could use to prepare for the game. I guarantee you after a couple of starts the League will adjust to him and he’ll have to make further adjustments, which will be more difficult because he’s still trying to refine his secondary offerings. Yesterday he had a pitch cap of 85 pitches, which means he’ll be lucky to pitch beyond the 5^th inning, therefore lowering the likelihood he will be able to generate wins. The Marlins have said they’re capping him to 150 to 165 innings, which will allow him to pitch until late July, early August before being shut down. On Sunday Fernandez will be available in NFBC Leagues and I’ll make a bid of $15, but I believe he’ll go for at least double that. He should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues with a deep bench, but if you’re in a standard 10-team ESPN league with three bench spots I don’t recommend picking him up.

Top 75 Starting Pitchers: April 8-14

1. Justin Verlander (DET) – Sat @OAK
2. Yu Darvish (TEX) – Fri @SEA
3. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Fri @ARI
4. Stephen Strasburg (WSH) – Sat ATL
5. Cole Hamels (PHI) – Sat @MIA
6. Madison Bumgarner (SF) – Mon COL, Sat @CHC
7. Cliff Lee (PHI) – Tue NYM
8. Mat Latos (CIN) – Mon @STL, Sun @PIT
9. Gio Gonzalez (WSH) – Tue CWS, Sun ATL
10. Jered Weaver (LAA) – Sat HOU
11. Max Scherzer (DET) – Fri @OAK
12. Alexi Ogando (TEX) – Mon TB, Sat @SEA
13. Jake Peavy (CWS) – Tue @WSH, Sun @CLE
14. Matt Harvey (NYM) – Mon @PHI, Sun @MIN
15. Johnny Cueto (CIN) – Sat @PIT
16. Matt Cain (SF) – Fri @CHC
17. Jeff Samardzija (CHC) – Fri SF
18. C.J. Wilson (LAA) – Tue OAK, Sun HOU
19. Jordan Zimmermann (WSH) – Wed CWS
20. Adam Wainwright (STL) – Sat MIL
21. Felix Hernandez (SEA) – Th TEX
22. Chris Sale (CWS) – Sat @CLE
23. Zack Greinke (LAD) – Th @SD
24. Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) – Mon @CLE, Sat BAL
25. David Price (TB) – Sat @BOS
26. Kris Medlen (ATL) – Tue @MIA
27. R.A. Dickey (TOR) – Sat @KC
28. Paul Maholm (ATL) – Mon @MIA, Sun @WSH
29. Andy Pettitte (NYY) – Tue @CLE, Sun BAL
30. Lucas Harrell (HOU) – Mon @SEA, Sun @LAA
31. CC Sabathia (NYY) – Fri BAL
32. Brett Anderson (OAK) – Sat DET
33. Matt Harrison (TEX) – Th @SEA
34. Ian Kennedy (ARI) – Sat LAD
35. Mike Minor (ATL) – Wed @MIA
36. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – Sat @STL
37. James Shields (KC) – Sat TOR
38. Matt Moore (TB) – Wed @TEX
39. Clayton Richard (SD) – Tue LAD, Sun COL
40. Homer Bailey (CIN) – Wed @STL
41. Doug Fister (DET) – Th TOR
42. James McDonald (PIT) – Tue @ARI
43. Shelby Miller (STL) – Fri MIL
44. A.J. Burnett (PIT) – Sat CIN
45. Edwin Jackson (CHC) – Mon MIL, Sat SF
46. Jorge De La Rosa (COL) – Mon @SF, Sun @SD
47. Marco Estrada (MIL) – Mon @CHC, Sun @STL
48. Jon Lester (BOS) – Sat TB
49. Derek Holland (TEX) – Wed TB
50. Wade Miley (ARI) – Wed PIT
51. Jhoulys Chacin (COL) – Sat @SD
52. Chad Billingsley (LAD) – Wed @SD
53. Jarrod Parker (OAK) – Tue @LAA, Sun DET
54. Trevor Cahill (ARI) – Mon PIT, Sun LAD
55. Anibal Sanchez (DET) – Tue TOR, Sun @OAK
56. Lance Lynn (STL) – Tue CIN
57. Clay Buchholz (BOS) – Mon BAL, Sun TB
58. Trevor Bauer (CLE) – Th NYY
59. Wily Peralta (MIL) – Tue @CHC
60. Kyle Lohse (MIL) – Wed @CHC
61. Brandon McCarthy (ARI) – Tue PIT
62. Tim Hudson (ATL) – Sat @WSH
63. Josh Johnson (TOR) – Th @DET
64. Chris Tilllman (BAL) – Fri @NYY
65. Jon Niese (NYM) – Fri @MIN
66. Ryan Vogelsong (SF) – Th @CHC
67. Joe Saunders (SEA) – Mon HOU, Sat TEX
68. Brandon Morrow (TOR) – Tue @DET, Sun @KC
69. Josh Beckett (LAD) – Tue @SD, Sun @ARI
70. Jeremy Hellickson (TB) – Mon @TEX, Sun @BOS
71. Tim Lincecum (SF) – Tue COL, Sun @CHC
72. Alex Cobb (TB) – Fri @BOS
73. Ross Detwiler (WSH) – Fri ATL
74. Michael Fiers (MIL) – Fri @STL
75. Roy Halladay (PHI) – Mon NYM, Sun @MIA

Notes

If Roy Halladay didn’t have his second start against the Marlins he would not have made the top 75. Like I said three days ago, I don’t believe he’s any better than a spot starter until he proves he can consistently get hitter’s out.