Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Lance Lynn has two bad starts and one good start this year and yesterday was another bad start. Lynn relies heavily on his fastball, throwing it 76% of the time this year; last year he threw it 70% of the time. In the two starts he performed poorly his fastball velocity was low, maxing out at 93 mph while in his good start his fastball maxed out at 95 mph. It could be an oversimplification to say velocity is the reason for his poor performance, but his secondary pitches are fringe average and need to work with the fastball to be effective. If the fastball isn’t effective the secondary stuff will not be as well. In terms of yesterday, he missed the location with his fastball, getting too much of the plate to both lefties and righties. He clearly labored just to get through the five innings he pitched.

James McDonald’s velocity was down to start the game and he was missing up in the zone with the fastball and curveball. It looks as though he’s no longer throwing the slider; last year he threw it 15.6% of the time and got the highest swing and miss rate (whiff rate) of all his pitches last year. I’ve read throwing the slider can put extra strain on a pitcher’s elbow and the pitchers who abandon it is usually a precursor to getting hurt. Maybe that’s why he abandoned it, but either way it’s concerning that he would scrap his best pitch after a year he was extremely effective for 2/3 of a season. Instead of throwing the slider, he’s throwing the curveball more, which doesn’t miss enough bats. If he continues to not throw the slider I’m going to drop him in all my 12 team NFBC leagues.

Aaron Hicks got the day off yesterday. To say he’s looked bad the plate is an understatement. Hopefully Twins manager, Ron Garddenhire moves him down in the order to put less pressure on him. It’s only a matter of time before he’s back in the minors working on his approach.

Roy Halladay earned his 200th win by going eight innings and only allowing one run against the Marlins yesterday. Halladay pitched a lot better compared to his previous two starters. Specifically throwing his curveball for strikes and incorporating a changeup for the first time this year. The image below shows the pitch location of his curveball yesterday compared to his previous two starts. Despite the box score, Halladay wasn’t dominant; instead he hung around the zone and pitched to contact. If he was facing a lineup that wouldn’t be confused for Triple-A lineup he would not have fared so well as he did yesterday. Halladay is a stream only pitcher.

Brandon Maurer saved fantasy owners (including myself) in weekly leagues by getting the win and allowing two earned runs in six innings against the Rangers yesterday. The biggest thing I noticed was the command of the fastball, which is a plus pitch (sits 93-95 mph), specifically working up and along the corners of the zone. The image below shows a heat map of the pitch location of his fastball yesterday compared to his first two starts.

The offense for the Tampa Bay Rays is Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings, Ben Zobrist and fringe average offensive players. At this point I put them in the same category as the Marlins when it comes to determining the stream value of a pitcher. The Rays front office has to seriously consider calling up Wil Myers, but what happens if they do, fans are going to count on him to be a savior of the offense, which is a lot of pressure for a rookie.

Saturday Jose Veras blew his first save chance of the year against the Angels. I’ve watched almost every Astros game this year and it’s only a matter of time before Rhiner Cruz, who has the best stuff in the bullpen, becomes the closer.

I’m concerned about Jarrod Parker, but I’m not as concerned as I was this morning. This is the third game in a row his command was loose, but yesterday was the worst he’s looked all year. He bounced a lot of pitchers in the dirt and missed above the hitter’s shoulders several times. The Tigers made a lot of hard contact on the pitches that were in the thrown in the zone; his line drive percentage was 24% last year, but this year its 35%. After reviewing his mechanics (below) I didn’t find anything dramatically different including his leg lift, posture and momentum. His velocity is the same; the only difference is location, which can be corrected. I’m waiting until he has a good start before I start him.

Game 1, 2012 ALDS

 
Sunday April 14, 2003

Top Starters

1. Cliff Lee (PHI) – Mon @CIN, Sat STL
2. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Wed SD
3. Justin Verlander (DET) – Fri @LAA
4. Jordan Zimmermann (WSH) – Mon @MIA, Sun @NYM
5. Johnny Cueto (CIN) – Th MIA
6. Yu Darvish (TEX) – Th @CHC
7. Stephen Strasburg (WSH) – Fri @NYM
8. Gio Gonzalez (WSH) – Sat @NYM
9. Chris Sale (CWS) – Th @TOR
10. Mat Latos (CIN) – Fri MIA
11. Matt Moore (TB) – Tue @BAL, Sun OAK
12. Jake Peavy (CWS) – Fri MIN
13. Madison Bumgarner (SF) – Fri SD
14. David Price (TB) – Th @BAL
15. Felix Hernandez (SEA) – Wed DET
16. Adam Wainwright (STL) – Th @PHI
17. Cole Hamels (PHI) – Th STL
18. Matt Cain (SF) – Th @MIL
19. Max Scherzer (DET) – Th @SEA
20. Jeff Samardzija (CHC) – Fri @MIL
21. Lance Lynn (STL) – Mon @PIT, Sat @PHI
22. CC Sabathia (NYY) – Th ARI
23. Kris Medlen (ATL) – Tue KC, Sun @PIT
24. Doug Fister (DET) – Wed @SEA
25. Alexi Ogando (TEX) – Fri SEA
26. Shelby Miller (STL) – Wed @PIT
27. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – Fri CHC
28. R.A. Dickey (TOR) – Th CWS
29. Brett Anderson (OAK) – Fri @TB
30. Paul Maholm (ATL) – Sat @PIT

Additional Information: I’ll fully admit my love for Matt Moore has no bounds; I’ve seen all of his starts and he can be maddening to watch. He could retire six straight batters, four via the strikeout then walk the number nine hitter on four pitches, but he has two starts against average offenses. Shelby Miller looked great last night, striking out eight in seven innings, but he still needs to develop/utilize his changeup more in order to sustain his success. I’m not worried about R.A. Dickey’s slow start as he’s been bothered by a cracked finger nail.

Backend Starters

31. Homer Bailey (CIN) – Tue PHI, Sun MIA
32. James Shields (KC) – Fri @BOS
33. Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) – Fri @TOR
34. A.J. Burnett (PIT) – Wed STL
35. Marco Estrada (MIL) – Sat CHC
36. Mike Minor (ATL) – Wed KC
37. Brandon Morrow (TOR) – Fri NYY
38. Kyle Lohse (MIL) – Th SF
39. Jon Lester (BOS) – Th @CLE
40. Derek Holland (TEX) – Tue @CHC, Sun SEA
41. Wade Davis (KC) – Wed @ATL
42. Bud Norris (HOU) – Wed @OAK
43. Ross Detwiler (WSH) – Wed @MIA
44. Anibal Sanchez (DET) – Sat @LAA
45. Wily Peralta (MIL) – Tue SF, Sun CHC
46. Josh Johnson (TOR) – Tue CWS, Sun NYY
47. Bartolo Colon (OAK) – Wed HOU
48. Jeremy Hellickson (TB) – Fri OAK
49. Andy Pettitte (NYY) – Sat @TOR
50. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) – Th DET

Additional Information: Odds are if you have these pitchers you’re starting them. Josh Johnson’s poor start on Thursday was more due to the weather conditions than his ability as evidenced by his fastball averaging 90 mph; his fastball averaged 93 mph in first start of the year. So far Jon Lester owners are quite happy with the results they’ve received so far. This week Lester has a great matchup with the free swinging Indians. It’s about time Jeremy Hellickson gets a favorable pitching matchup at home against the A’s. It’s not as favorable as you may think; the A’s lead the league in runs scored. I love the Yankee pitching staff on the road against the Blue Jays because that offense isn’t very good without Jose Reyes and Jose Bautista spending more time complaining about the strike zone than hitting with authority.

Spot Starters

51. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) – Th DET
52. Clay Buchholz (BOS) – Fri KC
53. Phil Hughes (NYY) – Wed ARI
54. Edwin Jackson (CHC) – Sat @MIL
55. Jarrod Parker (OAK) – Sat @TB
56. Jose Fernandez (MIA) – Th @CIN
57. A.J. Griffin (OAK) – Tue HOU
58. C.J. Wilson (LAA) – Sat DET
59. Roberto Hernandez (TB) – Mon @BOS, Sat OAK
60. Felix Doubront (BOS) – Wed @CLE
61. Ricky Nolasco (MIA) – Wed WSH
62. James McDonald (PIT) – Mon STL, Sat ATL
63. Gavin Floyd (CWS) – Mon @TOR, Sat MIN
64. Chris Tilllman (BAL) – Wed TB
65. Alex Cobb (TB) – Wed @BAL
66. Jason Vargas (LAA) – Tue @MIN
67. Ryan Vogelsong (SF) – Wed @MIL
68. Jason Hammel (BAL) – Fri LAD
69. Josh Beckett (LAD) – Sat @BAL
70. Tim Lincecum (SF) – Sat SD
71. Tim Hudson (ATL) – Fri @PIT
72. Julio Teheran (ATL) – Th @PIT
73. Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE) – Tue BOS, Sun @HOU
74. Tommy Milone (OAK) – Mon HOU, Sun @TB
75. Wei-Yin Chen (BAL) – Sat LAD
76. Lucas Harrell (HOU) – Fri CLE

Additional Information: Jarrod Parker would have been ranked higher, but he hasn’t looked good this year. From watching his mannerisms on the field it looks as though something is bothering him physically. Ubaldo Jimenez made the list because of his start against the Astros. If he was projected to start against anyone else he would not be on the list. Clay Buchholz has had a great start, but when you start him you’re playing with fire because it’s only a matter time he has a blowup start. During the past two seasons he’s made 43 starts and in 21 of those starts he had a game ERA 4.39 or higher. That’s 49% of his starts! Julio Teheran had a very shaky start yesterday, throwing primarily fastballs, but quickly settled down after the second inning. It’s no coincidence he became extremely effective after incorporating his curveball and slider/cutter.

Proceed With Caution

77. Nicholas Tepesch (TEX) – Sat SEA
78. Ian Kennedy (ARI) – Fri @COL
79. Trevor Cahill (ARI) – Sat @COL
80. Matt Harvey (NYM) – Th @COL
81. Roy Halladay (PHI) – Fri STL
82. Dan Haren (WSH) – Tue @MIA
83. Ryan Dempster (BOS) – Mon TB, Sat KC
84. Jeremy Guthrie (KC) – Tue @ATL, Sun @BOS
85. Ivan Nova (NYY) – Tue ARI, Sun @TOR
86. Barry Zito (SF) – Tue @MIL, Sun SD
87. Jake Westbrook (STL) – Tue @PIT, Sun @PHI

Additional Information: I loved Matt Harvey in the preseason, but the love for him in the fantasy community increased his ADP so high I was only able to get him in one of my four leagues. I’m not starting him in Colorado because I have no idea what to expect. He loves to pitch high in the zone with his fastball and that’s recipe for a disaster start. Dan Haren has looked bad this year and I have little hope he can reclaim his number two starter performance levels. Nicholas Tepesch looked great in his first start, allowing only one run in 7.3 innings and generating 16 ground ball outs. He’s not over powering and relies on his defense to get outs for him; not the profile of a pitcher I want in my starting lineup.