Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Today’s notes are going to be pretty skimpy because I was writing a hefty article about Ike Daivs and I can’t write and watch baseball at the same time because I often get engulfed in the game action and don’t get anything done. Please read my article if you’re interested in learning the fantasy value of Ike Davis the rest of the year.

That said, I got a chance to watch Cole Hamels and David Price pitch. Hamels biggest problem was he fell behind hitters a lot; there were eight batters with 3-2 counts. He couldn’t command any of his pitches so he utilized his curveball, his fourth pitch, to get strikes. I looked at his pitching motion and I couldn’t find anything dramatically different. I think I’ll take Hamels slow start and try to make an article out of it. Price left the game with with left forearm tightness and it is uncertain when he’ll pitch again. Time to pickup Chris Archer folks! The only takeaway I took from the game is Price was able to throw the fastball at 95 mph at least six times before leaving the game.

I’m not afraid to admit it, I picked up Scott Kazmir for $2 in two of my NFBC leagues on Sunday. So needless to say the Indians game was first on the docket last night. The fastball velocity was fine, sitting 90-92 mph and reaching 95 mph a few times. The biggest things I noticed was he wasn’t fooling a lot of hitters (18.2 percent swing and miss rate); prior to the game it was 26 percent. Even though he threw a lot of strikes, they were not good strikes because most of them were in the middle of the plate (image below). What’s most interesting is his home-road splits (table below). It may be a case where you only start him at home.

Despite the two earned runs the Marlins hitters were no match for Homer Bailey’s fastball. Bailey normally mixes all of his pitches, but last night he used his fastball extensively two times through the order before mixing in his curveball the third time through the order. Like I mentioned in last weeks starting pitcher rankings, you’re starting all of your pitchers against the Marlins. Side note- granted it was only four at-bats, Derek Dietrich (second baseman) looked really good. This is someone I’m going to look at more closely this week.

I should’ve been more bullish on Julio Teheran in the aforementioned pitcher rankings, but I didn’t have the stones. In his last four starts (including last night) he has a 2.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP with only one walk in 25.1 innings. His biggest roadblock from being a consistent fantasy starter is he doesn’t strikeout enough hitters (14.3 percent strikeout rate). It looks as though his changeup is still a work in progress, but if he can harness it he could be really good because the best swing and misses have come on the changeup. If you’re in a 14-16 team mixed league you should go get him.

I have no idea how to evaluate a knuckle-baller. I look at the types of swings hitters make and make my judgements from that. Even though R.A. Dickey had 10 strikeouts he still wasn’t vintage Dickey as the knuckleball still doesn’t have the same bite. However, yesterday was the best the knuckleball has looked (in short bursts) all year. There’s a lot of talk among the fantasy community about the viability of Dickey, specifically, should he dropped. My response is he shouldn’t be dropped because do not forget he had a fingernail issue at the beginning of the year and is still experiencing neck pain, which is obviously effecting his follow through, which could the reason for the decreased velocity.

Jeremy Guthrie has already given up 11 home runs in only 54.1 innings this year, four of which came last night. Prior to yesterday’s game Guthrie had 18 straight starts without a loss. I know these posts are extremely free form, but he has a 95.3 percent left-on-base rate. That’s insanely high! I only time I see rates that high are with relievers. Despite having a 2.82 ERA, he has a 5.54 FIP; we’re venturing into Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Cain territory here with a discrepancy that large. I’ve watched his last two starts and I still don’t understand how he accumulated his great numbers (3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP) since joining the Royals last year. He’s walking too many hitters (7.6 percent) and not missing enough bats (13.5 percent strikeout rate) to be a consistent fantasy starter, but his next start is @Houston on Monday so be ready to put him in your lineup.

Of his three starts (in the majors), this was by far Trevor Bauer’s best start of the year. His command was on and off;  in his 6.1 innings start he had eight 3-2 counts. However, he threw quality strikes when he needed to and subsequently got outs. He threw a lot of pitches up in the zone, but he also threw a lot of pitches down in the zone, which were strikes. He’s still consumed with throwing the “perfect” pitch. The perfect pitch is something out of the strike zone, usually low and away, where he hopes the batter will swing and miss. The reason why this was his best start of the year is he pitched to contact (he was forced to because of all the 3-2 counts) and got a lot of outs. This was a great step forward. If he pitches like he did today and has a permanent position in the rotation, he’s a top 50 pitcher.

With the recent news Jarrod Dyson may receive more playing time, now is the time to get grab him if you’re looking for speed. Last year, in only 330 plate appearances, he was 30 for 35 in stolen base attempts. Also, Dyson is extremely fast – one of the five fastest players in the majors. I timed him at 3.95 seconds on a jail break to first base earlier this year.

Don’t let the Twins TV broadcasters lead you astray about how well Aaron Hicks is doing after he was moved down in the lineup. Since being removed from the leadoff spot his slash line is .226/.338/.452.

I wrote two articles yesterday at TTFB, discussing the viability of David Phelps and Travis Wood. I encourage you to check them out!