Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

It was easily Jarrod Parker’s best start last night, but it still wasn’t the Parker we saw last year. At times the changeup flashed plus to plus-plus, but there were times he missed away and outside (of the strike zone) with it. This start was definitely a step in the right direction, but with his next start at Texas I want to see another good performance before I start him.

The best takeaway from Edwin Jackson’s start is he only walked one batter and threw a lot of strikes (68 percent). However, he’s still throwing too many balls in the middle of the strike zone, which is contributed to the two home runs he allowed. He could’ve allowed 1-2 more if the wind wasn’t blowing in. What made me laugh out loud is Matt Harvey made louder contact in his RBI single than Ike Davis has made the past week.

Speaking of Harvey, he got roughed up in the first inning, but proceeded to dominate the next 6.1 innings, retiring 14 in a row at one point. The game plan by the Cubs was to be extremely aggressive, swinging at the first pitch fastballs. After the first inning he made an adjustment and starting throwing curveballs and changeups to begin at-bats.

Tony Cingrani should and most likely be sent down when Johnny Cueto comes off the DL on Monday. There are a lot of things he has to work on. First is maintaining a consistent release point when pitching out of the stretch. Second, he has to learn to start incorporating his secondary offerings more. By now we all know how much he relies on his fastball. He tried incorporating the changeup and curveball more, but he wouldn’t throw it with runners on base. Throughout the entire game batters stopped their swing when they picked up it was a secondary offering. Cingrani is a better option than Mike Leake, but Cingrani has more upside and refining his secondary stuff in the minors will make the Reds better in the long run.

Last, but not least, it’s time to talk about Jeremy Hellickson. The entire game he struggled to find command of his pitches, which almost cost him to give up a six run lead. You would think that he would’ve walked a lot of batters because the lack of command, but it was the opposite. He threw a lot of pitches right down the middle of the plate (heat map below) the Orioles hitters took full advantage. At this point I have no problem dropping him 12-team mixed leagues because except for one start, hitters have made consistent hard contact against him all year.

Today’s notes are going to be pretty skimpy because I was writing a hefty article about Ike Daivs and I can’t write and watch baseball at the same time because I often get engulfed in the game action and don’t get anything done. Please read my article if you’re interested in learning the fantasy value of Ike Davis the rest of the year.

That said, I got a chance to watch Cole Hamels and David Price pitch. Hamels biggest problem was he fell behind hitters a lot; there were eight batters with 3-2 counts. He couldn’t command any of his pitches so he utilized his curveball, his fourth pitch, to get strikes. I looked at his pitching motion and I couldn’t find anything dramatically different. I think I’ll take Hamels slow start and try to make an article out of it. Price left the game with with left forearm tightness and it is uncertain when he’ll pitch again. Time to pickup Chris Archer folks! The only takeaway I took from the game is Price was able to throw the fastball at 95 mph at least six times before leaving the game.

I’m not afraid to admit it, I picked up Scott Kazmir for $2 in two of my NFBC leagues on Sunday. So needless to say the Indians game was first on the docket last night. The fastball velocity was fine, sitting 90-92 mph and reaching 95 mph a few times. The biggest things I noticed was he wasn’t fooling a lot of hitters (18.2 percent swing and miss rate); prior to the game it was 26 percent. Even though he threw a lot of strikes, they were not good strikes because most of them were in the middle of the plate (image below). What’s most interesting is his home-road splits (table below). It may be a case where you only start him at home.

Despite the two earned runs the Marlins hitters were no match for Homer Bailey’s fastball. Bailey normally mixes all of his pitches, but last night he used his fastball extensively two times through the order before mixing in his curveball the third time through the order. Like I mentioned in last weeks starting pitcher rankings, you’re starting all of your pitchers against the Marlins. Side note- granted it was only four at-bats, Derek Dietrich (second baseman) looked really good. This is someone I’m going to look at more closely this week.

I should’ve been more bullish on Julio Teheran in the aforementioned pitcher rankings, but I didn’t have the stones. In his last four starts (including last night) he has a 2.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP with only one walk in 25.1 innings. His biggest roadblock from being a consistent fantasy starter is he doesn’t strikeout enough hitters (14.3 percent strikeout rate). It looks as though his changeup is still a work in progress, but if he can harness it he could be really good because the best swing and misses have come on the changeup. If you’re in a 14-16 team mixed league you should go get him.

I have no idea how to evaluate a knuckle-baller. I look at the types of swings hitters make and make my judgements from that. Even though R.A. Dickey had 10 strikeouts he still wasn’t vintage Dickey as the knuckleball still doesn’t have the same bite. However, yesterday was the best the knuckleball has looked (in short bursts) all year. There’s a lot of talk among the fantasy community about the viability of Dickey, specifically, should he dropped. My response is he shouldn’t be dropped because do not forget he had a fingernail issue at the beginning of the year and is still experiencing neck pain, which is obviously effecting his follow through, which could the reason for the decreased velocity.

Jeremy Guthrie has already given up 11 home runs in only 54.1 innings this year, four of which came last night. Prior to yesterday’s game Guthrie had 18 straight starts without a loss. I know these posts are extremely free form, but he has a 95.3 percent left-on-base rate. That’s insanely high! I only time I see rates that high are with relievers. Despite having a 2.82 ERA, he has a 5.54 FIP; we’re venturing into Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Cain territory here with a discrepancy that large. I’ve watched his last two starts and I still don’t understand how he accumulated his great numbers (3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP) since joining the Royals last year. He’s walking too many hitters (7.6 percent) and not missing enough bats (13.5 percent strikeout rate) to be a consistent fantasy starter, but his next start is @Houston on Monday so be ready to put him in your lineup.