Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Below are the FAAB results for all four of my NFBC leagues. Since this is my first time playing in the NFBC I’m finding the FAAB process to be more time consuming and tricky than I previously thought. My strategy for coming up with bids is to look at player comps of the player I’m looking to get and see what they went previously went for. What’s awesome about doing multiple leagues is I get to see FAAB trends over a larger sample. Anyway, enjoy!

15 Team Satellite

 12 Team Satellite

 12 Team Online Championship

 12 Team Satellite

Top Starters

1. Jordan Zimmermann (WSH) – Mon @LAD, Sat @SD
2. Matt Moore (TB) – Tue BOS, Sun @BAL
3. A.J. Burnett (PIT) – Mon MIL, Sat HOU
4. Adam Wainwright (STL) – Th NYM
5. Justin Verlander (DET) – Th @TEX
6. Stephen Strasburg (WSH) – Th @SD
7. Yu Darvish (TEX) – Th DET
8. Anibal Sanchez (DET) – Mon HOU, Sat @TEX
9. Doug Fister (DET) – Tue HOU, Sun @TEX
10. Max Scherzer (DET) – Wed HOU
11. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Tue WSH
12. Matt Harvey (NYM) – Fri @CHC
13. James Shields (KC) – Fri @OAK
14. Lance Lynn (STL) – Mon NYM, Sat MIL
15. Felix Hernandez (SEA) – Wed @NYY
16. Cliff Lee (PHI) – Sat CIN
17. CC Sabathia (NYY) – Tue SEA, Sun TOR
18. Derek Holland (TEX) – Tue @OAK, Sun DET
19. Clay Buchholz (BOS) – Th @TB
20. Mat Latos (CIN) – Fri @PHI
21. Cole Hamels (PHI) – Wed CLE
22. David Price (TB) – Wed BOS
23. Jake Peavy (CWS) – Tue @MIN, Sun @LAA
24. Madison Bumgarner (SF) – Fri @COL
25. Chris Sale (CWS) – Fri @LAA
26. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – Wed @PIT
27. Jeff Samardzija (CHC) – Wed COL

Additional Information: Based on where Stephen Strasburg was drafted in drafts this year it’s safe to say he has been a disappointment this year. All the signs are there for a big game: he’s returning to his home town, Petco Park, and the Padres offense. Four out of five Tigers pitchers are in my top 10 because they’re facing off against the Astros, the team with the most strikeouts in the major leagues. I still believe in Jeff Samardzjia despite his last outing in Washington.

Backend Starters

28. Homer Bailey (CIN) – Tue @MIA, Sun @PHI
29. Shelby Miller (STL) – Wed NYM
30. Tony Cingrani (CIN) – Th @MIA
31. Gio Gonzalez (WSH) – Fri @SD
32. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) – Th @NYY
33. Alexi Ogando (TEX) – Wed @OAK
34. Mike Minor (ATL) – Mon @ARI, Sun LAD
35. Wade Miley (ARI) – Mon ATL, Sun @MIA
36. Jon Lester (BOS) – Wed @TB
37. Ervin Santana (KC) – Sat @OAK
38. Zack Greinke (LAD) – Wed WSH
39. Jeremy Guthrie (KC) – Tue @LAA
40. Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) – Fri TOR
41. Patrick Corbin (ARI) – Tue ATL
42. Ryan Dempster (BOS) – Fri @MIN
43. Chris Tilllman (BAL) – Tue SD
44. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) – Fri @ATL
45. Kyle Lohse (MIL) – Mon @PIT, Sat @STL
46. Ross Detwiler (WSH) – Wed @LAD
47. Matt Cain (SF) – Th @COL
48. Tommy Milone (OAK) – Sat KC
49. R.A. Dickey (TOR) – Tue SF, Sun @NYY

Additional Information: As I wrote earlier today, I’m buying Jeremy Guthrie. This could be the last start for Tony Cingrani as Johnny Cueto will make at least one more rehab start before rejoining the Reds. There’s no question Cingrani is the better option between him and Mike Leake for the fifth spot in the rotation, but if I were a betting man I’d say Cingrani is sent back to triple-a. Hisashi Iwakuma’s great start has flown completely underneath the radar to begin the year but he is currently striking out batters 25 percent of the time and only walking batters 4.8 percent of the time. Odds are if you own Zack Greinke you’re starting him and you should. The broken collarbone was on his non-throwing shoulder so there shouldn’t be any setback. The way I see it, he could’ve been on a beach in Hawaii for the past few weeks and I would still start him. If you told me in the pre-season Tommy Milone was going to be the A’s best pitcher I would’ve laughed at you, but he’s increased his strikeout rate has increased 4.5 percentage points to 21.7 percent and his walk rate has gone down 3.2 percent.

Spot Starters

50. Andrew Cashner (SD) – Tue @BAL, Sun WSH
51. Trevor Cahill (ARI) – Fri @MIA
52. Kris Medlen (ATL) – Sat LAD
53. Paul Maholm (ATL) – Fri LAD
54. Brandon McCarthy (ARI) – Sat @MIA
55. Jose Fernandez (MIA) – Th CIN
56. Brandon Morrow (TOR) – Sat @NYY
57. Alex Cobb (TB) – Th BOS
58. Phil Hughes (NYY) – Wed SEA
59. Bud Norris (HOU) – Mon @DET, Sun @PIT
60. C.J. Wilson (LAA) – Fri CWS
61. Ricky Nolasco (MIA) – Wed CIN
62. Andy Pettitte (NYY) – Th SEA
63. A.J. Griffin (OAK) – Mon TEX, Sun KC
64. Dan Haren (WSH) – Tue @LAD, Sun @SD
65. Jaime Garcia (STL) – Fri MIL

Additional Information: When in doubt start pitchers who are playing the Marlins. Show no fear and start Trevor Cahill and Brandon McCarthy. Compared to last year Kris Medlen is walking more hitters and striking out less hitters. If he wasn’t facing the lowly Dodgers he would be a lot lower. After three rough starts, Jose Fernandez was unhittable in his last start @ Philadelphia. Ricky Nolasco has pitched better than his 2-4 record and 3.72 ERA would indicate. If Nolasco played on a competent team, he would be a top 35 starting pitcher.

Proceed With Caution

66. Ian Kennedy (ARI) – Wed ATL
67. Edwin Jackson (CHC) – Fri NYM
68. Scott Kazmir (CLE) – Tue @PHI
69. Josh Beckett (LAD) – Mon WSH, Sun @ATL
70. Mike Leake (CIN) – Wed @MIA
71. Zach McAllister (CLE) – Sat SEA
72. Kevin Slowey (MIA) – Fri ARI
73. Wade Davis (KC) – Wed @LAA
74. Tim Hudson (ATL) – Wed @ARI
75. Scott Feldman (CHC) – Sat NYM
76. Jason Hammel (BAL) – Fri TB
77. Brandon Maurer (SEA) – Fri @CLE
78. Jake Westbrook (STL) – Tue NYM, Sun MIL
79. Roberto Hernandez (TB) – Sat @BAL
80. Justin Grimm (TEX) – Mon @OAK, Sat DET
81. Nicholas Tepesch (TEX) – Fri DET
82. Jeremy Hellickson (TB) – Fri @BAL
83. Jarrod Parker (OAK) – Fri KC
84. Dan Straily (OAK) – Wed TEX

Additional Information: All of Ian Kennedy’s underlying stats, batting average, BABIP, Swing and Miss rates and LOB%, are the same since 2010 except he’s walking 50 percent more batters and striking out 14 percent less batters. The quality of his stuff is still the same. He’s a great buy low candidate.Dan Straily has made 11 big league starts and has allowed 14 home runs. I hope he’s not becoming the right handed version of Jason Vargas. I loved Jeremy Hellickson this year, drafting him in all of my leagues. On the bright side he’s getting 13 percent more swings and misses and striking out 21 percent of batters, but after his last start I don’t have a problem with fantasy owners dropping him in 12-team mixed leagues. In 15 team mixed leagues you have to hold onto him.

Avoid

85. Julio Teheran (ATL) – Tue @ARI
86. Justin Masterson (CLE) – Mon NYY-2, Sun SEA
87. Marco Estrada (MIL) – Th @PIT
88. Kevin Correia (MIN) – Tue CWS
89. Wei-Yin Chen (BAL) – Sun TB
90. Felix Doubront (BOS) – Sat @MIN
91. Francisco Liriano (PIT) – Th MIL
92. Joe Saunders (SEA) – Sat @CLE
93. Wandy Rodriguez (PIT) – Wed MIL
94. Jason Vargas (LAA) – Tue KC, Sun CWS
95. Wily Peralta (MIL) – Fri @STL
96. Hector Santiago (CWS) – Mon @MIN, Sat @LAA
97. Jose Quintana (CWS) – Th @LAA
98. Carlos Villanueva (CHC) – Tue COL
99. John Lackey (BOS) – Tue @TB, Sun @MIN
100. Freddy Garcia (BAL) – Wed SD
101. Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE) – Fri SEA

Additional Information: If I had to play one of these players I would put my money on Julio Teheran. Despite the poor baseball card numbers, Teheran has looked like a quality major pitcher in his last three starts. How many walks does he have in last three starts (19.1 innings)? One. When you’re looking at pitchers this low on the totem pole, take the pitcher who doesn’t walk batters.

To begin the game it was vintage David Price. He was pounding the strike zone, working both sides of the plate while striking out two. However, this was short lived as the next six innings the Blue Jays had runners on base every inning. Some of the hits allowed were of the bloop variety and he pitched well enough to win the game, but this wasn’t, yet again, another Cy Young performance from Price. His fastball averaged 93-94 mph, which is still down from last year, but the best takeaway from the game was he threw a fastball at 95 mph with his 108 pitch of the game. The biggest trend about his fastball is not the velocity, but the substantial decrease of times he’s throwing it. Last year he threw the fastball 55 percent of the time to righties and 81.5 percent to lefties. This year its 41 percent to righties and 77 percent to lefties. His fastball still has enough velocity to be used a lot more and if he starts using it more he should see better results than he’s had this year.

Of course after the day after I write an article chronicling Eric Hosmer’s hitting struggles, he goes out and hits a home run. If you watch the home run you’ll notice the ball was on the outer half of the plate. Hosmer’s problem isn’t with pitches on the outer half; .439 slugging since 2011. Instead it’s pitches on the inner half. Yesterday he didn’t see any pitches on the inner half, but I’m glad he got his first home run and I want to see the adjustments he continues to make.

Like Price, R.A. Dickey pitched well enough to win the game and flashed (in bursts) the pitcher we saw last year. The knuckleball, at times, had great breaking movement and other times it fluttered in the zone. The velocity of the knuckleball was primarily in the mid to upper 70s and not the 80s we saw last year.

Since being acquired by the Royals on Jeremy Guthrie, in 21 starts, 2.86 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 15.4 percent strikeout rate and 5.9 percent walk rate. I’m believer and he should be owned in all leagues.

After his start yesterday Ryan Vogelsong increased his ERA to 7.78 and WHIP to 1.73 for the year. If you read my fantasy guide you will have seen I saw this coming. I’ll admit I didn’t think he would be this bad, but the the low three ERA pitcher of 2010-11 was not coming back.