Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

In honor of The Baseball Show with Rany and Joe ending I wanted to evaluate one of the comments Rany Jazayerli made. Since I was listening to it as I was cooking I forget the exact quote, but he said something to the effect of (about Andrelton Simmons), “his contact rates are high enough  to have a .280 batting average.” He could have said high average instead of .280 or maybe it was some other number; I could have made it up, so I apologize if I misquoted him.

However, the idea got me thinking about contact rates. The most important takeaway of this idea is I wanted to see what type of significance do contact rates have on a hitter’s batting average? Specifically, do how high contact rates correlate to higher batting averages?

To get better understanding of regression and what R squared means, feel free to checkout a primer I wrote about regression. I looked at hitters with at least 200 plate appearances (by year) from 2008-13 via FanGraphs. The sample size was 2,095 hitters. The y-axis is batting average and the x-axis is contact%.

With an R squared of 0.09 suggests there is very little (positive) relationship between contact rates and batting average. So, basically, a player’s ability to make contact does not necessarily mean a player will have a higher batting average. I find this type of information really cool because there are times when I’ll write about a player’s contact rates without ever questioning if contact rates had any impact on batting average.

For fun I looked how well BABIP correlated to batting average (with the same sample size) and this is what I found (image below). With a R squared of 0.64 suggests there is a positive relationship between a high BABIP and a high batting average. That said, it is not the end-all-be-all so do not automatically assume a higher BABIP will automatically result in a higher batting average.

After the A’s traded for Drew Pomeranz I thought the A’s were done making moves because it looked as though the 25-27 man roster was ready for the start of Spring Training. However, in the A’s traded Jerry Blevins to the Washington Nationals for minor league prospect Billy Burns. The trade is very interesting because I believed Blevins was going to be the much needed second lefty specialist (in addition to Sean Dolittle) in a division that now contains Robinson Cano, Prince Fielder, Logan Morrison, Josh Hamilton and Kyle Seager.

With Blevins out of the picture it appears Dan Otero is the front runner to assume the fifth spot in a very good bullpen. Otero is a sinker ball (sits 90-92 mph) pitcher and has performed better against lefties than righties, which isn’t that surprising as the sinker has a lot arm-side movement (i.e. it breaks away from the left handed hitters bat).

Another dark horse for the bullpen is newly acquired Fernando Abad who was acquired from the Nationals two weeks ago. Before last year his fastball sat 90-91 mph, but in 2o13 his velocity ticked up and he was sitting 93 mph and touched as high as 97. In terms of his secondary offerings he throws a knuckle curveball that is a solid weapon against lefties, especially when he’s locating his fastball. If I were going to pick between the two I say Abad gets the slight edge over Otero. However, towards the end of the Bob Melvin was putting Otero in more high leverage situations towards the end of the year.

Another popular trend on Twitter is Pomeranz will become the next lefty reliever in the bullpen, which is highly unlikely for 2014. I’ll admit I said yesterday his floor is an eighth inning power reliever, but the A’s are going to try to keep him as a starter because 180 innings is more valuable than 60. For a deep sleeper, do not sleep on Jeremy Barfield because he is left handed and has a low to mid-90s fastball, slider and split-finger. It’s very possible he could follow the same path as Doolittle.

Overall, this seems like a small salary dump as Blevins is expected to make $2-3 million dollars in arbitration this year. Also, Blevins’ services must have been seen superfluous as they have internal options within the organization. Based on the scouting reports I’ve read Burns is gamer who possess one elite tool (speed) and is an above average defender in center field. Even though his numbers in the minors were good last year, do not forget he was old for the level and this year will be a big test for him in triple-a. I can’t wait to see him play.

By now you may have heard the A’s traded for Drew Pomeranz and Chris Jensen in exchange for often injured Brett Anderson. This is not a shock to most A’s fans as there have been rumors he’s been on the trade block since the offseason began. The question all A’s fans is: was this a good trade?

Pomeranz is the key to the deal. He is a former fifth overall pick by the Cleveland in the 2010 draft and found his way to Colorado in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal on July 2011. In his brief time in the majors he has a 5.17 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 18.9 percent strikeout rate and 12.1 percent walk rate. So needless to say he has been inconsistent. In 2013 he was limited a bicep tendinitis (in his left arm), which plagued him for most of the season, which could be the reason for his poor performance (in the majors and minors).

At this point in his development he’s a two pitch pitcher with a low to mid-90s fastball with a biting curveball; it wasn’t so good in Colorado, but it should look a lot better in Oakland. In his time in the majors what was lacking was the command of a third pitch (changeup). If he’s going to be a starter he is going to have to develop the changeup to consistently get right handed batters out. If the changeup doesn’t develop he’ll be a great setup man in the bullpen; think another Sean Doolittle, but with a better breaking ball.

From the A’s perspective they save $6 million dollars in payroll and get a former top five pick and maybe a backend rotation pitcher in Jensen. What’s not being talked about is the A’s player development staff. The A’s may not be able draft well (I’ll believe Addison Russell when I see him … side note: I have seen and spoken with him and he’s going to be really good), but they can develop pitchers. Current examples include: A.J. Griffin, Dan Straily, Sonny Gray and Jarrod Parker.

Pomeranz will most likely begin the year in Sacramento (triple-a) without a lot of pressure to perform because the A’s are not counting on him in 2014. In terms of raw stuff he’s leaps and bounds better than Griffin, Straily and Tommy Milone. If Pomeranz can make a comeback he will most likely be called up during the middle of the year which would make the rotation even more formidable. Also, he provides Scott Kazmir insurance in case he gets hurt; I know Milone is available but Milone is a fringe major leaguer.