Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

At the start of spring training Zack Greinke was diagnosed with elbow inflammation and at the time of the diagnosis was seen a minor injury. That proved to be true as he was able to begin the year on the opening day roster. Other than Carlos Quentin breaking his collar bone Greinke had a healthy season. Despite what the ERA suggests, there are some major red flags with Greinke heading into 2014.

First of all he started throwing the slider a lot less compared to previous years (image below from BrooksBaseball.net). In past years, he’d thrown it between 15-20 percent of the time. However, last year, it’s about five percent of the time. I will mention during the last two months of the season there was a spike in his slider usage, which resembled the usage of previous years. Why does decreased slider usage have a big effect on his 2014 value? Since 2008 the slider has been his most used secondary pitch. During that time the slider has a 53.6 percent strikeout rate, which makes it even more odd he would suddenly scrap that pitch in 2013. A possible reason why he scrapped the slider was due to elbow problems, which can be exacerbated by throwing a lot of sliders.

Instead of throwing the slider he threw more cut fastballs and changeups. This change resulted in the strikeout rate dropping two and a half percentage points last year, which was the lowest its been since 2010. To recap, he abandoned the slider the same year he reportedly had elbow inflammation. Therefore, I’m concerned about his health moving forward.

Second, Greinke had a great year, but there are signs he was lucky. For example, he had a six percent HR/FB rate on the road, which is not likely to be repeated again. Also, the .276 BABIP and 81 percent LOB% rates are clear numbers that should regress as well. Overall, Greinke’s numbers are going to regress from 2013; add a potential elbow problem that manifested itself in a decreased usage of the slider, his best pitch, creates a recipe I do not want to have on my fantasy team.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Ok, I know what you’re thinking; that Travis Wood got lucky last year, which I agree looks to be correct when you only look at his 2013s numbers. However, in three of his last four seasons (in the majors) he has BABIPs less than .260 and HR/FB rates less than seven percent. That said, last year’s LOB% rate of 77.4 percent should regress as he has a 70 percent LOB% career rate. Despite being a fly ball pitcher he’s shown that he’s able to induce a lot of weak contact despite not having plus stuff, which consists of primarily two pitches: a fastball and cutter.

Wood began his career with the Reds, playing two seasons for them before being acquired by the Cubs. After doing a little digging I noticed his career stats are being held down due to playing Great American Ballpark (Cincinnati’s ballpark). The table below compares his performance at Great American Ballpark (GAB) versus everywhere else; small sample size caveat as he has only thrown 97 innings at GAB.

If you combine the advanced statistics with his performance away from GAB he becomes a sneaky draft day value because he will likely be overlooked because of his “lucky” 2013 season. His ERA will likely regress, but not as much as you think; probably to the 3.60-3.80 range. Also, he’ll most likely have a sub-1.20 WHIP with a reasonable strikeout rate on a team that has a revamped bullpen and a team that should be better in general, which equates to a higher likelihood earning wins.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

It’s been awhile since I’ve written something on here and I promise it was not because of slack. I’ve been working on this year’s fantasy guide and this one is going to be a lot better than last years. The write ups are longer and honestly have more substantial insight. This is the player capsule I wrote for CC Sabathia. I also wrote another capsule for Hyun-Jin Ryu over at Baseball Professor.

Much has been said about Sabathia’s decreased velocity being the primary cause for his down season, but most people forget to mention his fastball velocity actually increased as the season progressed except for August (a hamstring pull is most likely the cause for the drop off). Please see the image below of Sabathia’s fastball velocity since 2007 (courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net).

When looking at the chart the decline in fastball velocity is quite apparent, but according to the data in the table below the effectiveness of the fastball didn’t change very much in 2013 (data from BrooksBaseball.net). Also, from the research I’ve done, a drop in fastball velocity does not correlate to poor performance. Therefore, something else must have caused the poor performance.

There must be another reason why 2013 was such a poor season. According to one talent evaluator the weight loss was detrimental. “The weight loss has created a balance problem for him. He’s all over the place. He’s learning how to pitch in that body, a body he’s really never had. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with him other than that. Sometimes you pitch at a certain weight all your life and then someone has the brilliant idea that you should lose weight because it’s putting stress on your knees, you do it, and then you’re dealing with something else.”

Sabathia was bad last year, but I believe he can still rebound and turn it around because he never relied on the fastball to get guys out. Also, you don’t need to throw in the mid-90s to get batters, just ask Hyun-Jin Ryu. I don’t believe he’ll return to 2011 levels, but he could still be a usable starter in 12-team mixed leagues if can repeat his delivery with his new, slimmer body.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.