In episode six I discuss the first base position and some players you should be targeting and avoiding in your drafts. I also discuss the new 300 movie towards the end of the podcast.
For more information about first base and other players in general feel free to check out my fantasy guide which can be found here.
Musical guest is The Brother Kite.
The songs I played were from the Model Rocket. The name of the songs are:
Download Here (32:31)
Below you will find my latest fantasy baseball player projections and dollar values for 10-team, 12-team and 15-team mixed leagues with a 23 player starting lineup consisting of 14 hitters (two catchers) and nine pitchers. The projections for the traditional 5×5 format and a $260 budget per team. Most importantly I split my budget 68/32 for hitting and pitching respectively.
These are my final (at least for public consumption) projections and dollar values. I will personally be using these dollar values for my upcoming drafts this week as well as my high stakes NFBC 15-team auction in Vegas. If you have any questions feel free to reach me on twitter @MattCommins.
In my fantasy guide I wasn’t very high on Jose Abreu because “the scouting community is split over whether his power will translate against major league pitching. Some scouts consider his bat speed to be only average at best …” The source from the quote is from Ben Badler’s article right after Abreu signed in October.
We’re half way through spring training and talent evaluators have had an opportunity to get a better view of him and to see how he performs professional pitchers. One talent evaluator I respect very much is Keith Law and a couple of days ago he said, “I think they had good cause for such optimism.” Check out the article for the full write-up. I’m currently updating my projections and Law’s scouting report got me thinking how should I project him.
After the first 11-12 first baseman the next eight, nine are all about the same, which is the tier that contains Abreu. This tier of first basemen provide pretty safe numbers in that they will 18-23 home runs with a .260-275 batting average. If you’re team is going to do well you’re going to need to find the player that outperforms everyone in this tier.
Despite my projection for 27 home runs, Abreu is in this tier because I gave him a .240 batting average. In my rankings he’s currently right after Brandon Belt, Matt Adams and Nick Swisher. If I were drafting in a 10-team mixed draft I would take Abreu over all of them, but what about a 15-team mixed league? My initial response is to say no, but if Abreu hits 30-plus homes with a .250 batting average you basically have Mark Trumbo.
Albert Pujols and Abreu are the two first basemen who will have the biggest deviations from their draft value at the end of the year. They’ll either outperform or under perform; I do not see a lot of middle ground. The point I’m trying to make is how important it is to understand the player pool and to find the player’s you’re high and low on before your drafts so you do not have to make snap decisions in 60-90 seconds. (I gave Abreu a couple of extra home runs and he is now ahead of Adams and Swisher).
Lastly, I’m writing a daily column over at Baseball Professor where I recap the previous days fantasy news. So if you’re looking to read me more often then check them out.
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