Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The matchups were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The data is up to date as of Thursday night. Also, my player comments were written Friday morning. The original post can be found here.

Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Week 13

Must Start Pitchers: In his last six starts Max Scherzer has a 6.86 ERA, 1.58 WHIP with a 21.3 percent strikeout rate and 5.1 percent walk rate. To put the strikeout rate into perspective he hasn’t had a strikeout rate that low since 2011. During this stretch he has a .382 BABIP, which on the surface suggests the bad luck will regress. However, 50 percent of the hitted balls he’s allowed have been fly balls, which is by far higher than his career norms. Scherzer’s track record speaks for itself, but I’m a little worried about him moving forward.

Stream Options in 10-Teams & Must Starts in 12-Team: Yordano Ventura has looked good in his last three starts since returning from a sore elbow. In the last three starts he has a 2.70 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. What’s most concerning is he only has eight strikeouts in 20 innings (10 percent strikeout rate). It’s only been three starts and the quality of his stuff is still the same so I don’t want to overreact, but if he’s only striking out 3-4 batters per outing he’s no longer a must play in 10 and maybe 12 team formats. … After a brutal start to the season Chris Archer has a 1.06 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 24.3 percent strikeout rate and 11.8 percent walk rate. Any time I see a walk rate and WHIP that high I know the ERA is unsustainable. I still have serious concerns about his inability to consistently get out left handed batters and his inability to earn wins, but he still has immense fantasy potential. … I love Marcus Stroman, but for the year left handed batters are hitting .348 against him. The biggest reason why is he doesn’t throw the changeup enough. Without the changeup he doesn’t have a pitch that goes away from the batter, which makes him more hittable because the batters are looking for the ball either in the middle or in on the plate. The changeup could be a work in progress, but if he is going to stay in the rotation he is going to have to utilize it more. … Even if you remove Colin McHugh’s first start where he struck out 12 in 6.3 innings he has a 3.07 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 24.3 percent strikeout rate. The ERA will increase, but not more than 3.40; he’s almost reached the level of must start status.

Stream Options in 12-Teams & Must Starts in 15-Team: When Jake Arrieta was on the verge of making his 2014 debut I was excited about his fantasy value because his raw stuff was on a level of a top 20 starting pitcher. After his debut against the Cardinals I recommended fantasy owners to pick him up off waivers. There’s no bigger proponent of Arrieta than me. In his last six starts he has a 1.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 29.4 percent strikeout rate and 4.9 percent walk rate. However, look at the teams he faced: Marlins twice, Phillies, Mets, Giants and Padres … not exactly the best offenses in the majors. … Andrew Heaney doesn’t have the flash of a Marcus Stroman or a Trevor Bauer, but he may have the most fantasy value for the rest of the year. Heaney doesn’t have exploding stuff, but he makes up for that with good command of three pitches that he can throw for strikes at any point in the count. Also, do not forget Heaney pitches in the worst division in baseball so he is going to have more stream opportunities.

Stream Options in 15-Team: Bartolo Colon is pitching great of late; he has a 1.53 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his last five starts. However, when you start him you’re playing with fire. Three times this year he has had starts where he has given up six or more earned runs.

Pitchers To Start Only in Dire Circumstances: To begin the year I wasn’t buying Kyle Gibson’s early numbers because he wasn’t striking out a lot of hitters (only 13 percent) and walking too many batters (12 percent). In the last nine starts he has a 2.67 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 14.6 strikeout rate and 5.2 walk rate. The fact he cut the walk rate in half and increased the strikeout rate suggests he can be streamable. However, during this time frame he has had starts where he has given up six, five and four earned runs. Bottom line is if you start him you’re playing with fire. … When I’ve seen Justin Verlander pitch the biggest problem has been command and not the fastball velocity. Doug Thorburn at Baseball Prospectus builds upon what I’ve been seeing by going in-depth into the mechanical inconsistencies with his delivery. This is a tease from the article, “Yet despite the statistical red flags, the underlying elements of his struggles suggest that he can right the ship with minor adjustments.” He’s a buy low in every format.

The matchups were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The data is up to date as of Thursday night. Also, my player comments were written Friday morning.

Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Week 12

Must Start Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel will most likely not the end the season with a sub-2.40 ERA, but what he’s doing is legit; at the end of the year he’ll have a sub-3.15 ERA. This week he faces one of the worst offenses in the majors (Rays) and a NL team without the DH.

Stream Options in 10-Teams & Must Starts in 12-Team: The presumption is Kevin Gausman will be sent down to the minors when Miguel Gonzalez comes off the DL, but I would be shocked if that happens. He has the highest upside of any starting pitcher on the major league roster and if the Orioles want any shot of making the playoffs Gausman will have to be the rotation. … Trevor Bauer did not perform well in a favorable matchup start against the Royals, but he’s throwing strikes consistently. If he doesn’t perform well against the Angels it’s possible he gets bumped out of the rotation when Zach McAllister comes off the DL. … Yordano Ventura has pitched great since coming off the DL, but he’s not striking out a lot of batters. In his last six starts (34.1 innings) he only has 22 strikeouts, which isn’t enough in shallower mixed leagues. He’s still a must start this week, but if the low strikeout totals continue I would try to trade him. … Jeff Samardzija has pitched great this season and is a must start against the Marlins because he recently went seven innings and only allowed two earned runs against them in Chicago. He currently has a 2.77 ERA, but when the season ends he’ll have a 3.50-3.70 ERA, which means he’ll have an ERA around 4.20 the rest of the year. I’m selling high after his great start against the Marlins.

Stream Options in 12-Teams & Must Starts in 15-Team: Danny Duffy has a 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP as a starter and he faces a Tigers lineup that is only average against lefties. For example, the Tigers are 17^th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. … In his last 11 starts Brandon McCarthy has a 4.55 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 23.3 percent strikeout rate, 4.4 walk rate, 18 percent HR/FB rate and a .358 BABIP. Eventually the luck will positively regress and I like him as individual streaming options this upcoming week. … Chase Whitley has looked good in every start this year. He strikes out enough batters, generates a lot of ground balls and most importantly only has three walks in 33.2 innings. The 2.41 ERA is going to regress, but I don’t see a huge jump coming. By the end of the year he’ll have a 3.25-3.35 ERA, which is still very good in deeper mixed leagues. He has a tough matchup against the Blue Jays but I love pitchers who do not walk guys.

Stream Options in 15-Team: I said at the very beginning of the season I wasn’t buying Jesse Chavez. In the last five starts he has a 4.13 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Even though he’s at home I have reservations about starting him against the Red Sox in a 12-team mixed league.

Pitchers To Start Only in Dire Circumstances: Justin Verlander has a 7.41 ERA and 1.78 WHIP to go along with 13.5 strikeout rate and 10 percent walk rate in his last six starts. Despite the favorable matchups this week I cannot see a scenario in any mixed format where I would want to start him. … The box score of Chris Tillman’s last start suggests he has made strides with this command, but he still left a lot of balls up in the zone and should have given up more runs only one. Even if he performs well against the Blue Jays on Sunday I would have strong reservations about starting him because he has allowed five or more runs in three of the past five starts. He has a 2.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a four percent walk rate, but I’m not buying especially at the Red Sox. In five of twelve starts he has given up four earned runs or more, which means he could have a blow up start at any time.

I love Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman from a fantasy perspective. When Bauer got his second call-up in mid-May I said he would be a top 35-40 starting pitcher. That recommendation was based on how good his raw stuff is, his prior start in the majors (against the Padres), the minor league numbers and most importantly, those good numbers were due to mechanical changes he made.

Prior to 2014 his biggest roadblock was he couldn’t throw strikes consistently. I’ve watched every one of Bauer’s major league starts and I’ve been impressed with the improvements he’s made from 2013, but Bauer was still a work in progress. There have been bursts where he would look great one inning and lose his command the next. In each start the command has been more consistent.

The most frustrating part about watching Bauer pitch is, at times, he tries too hard to make the perfect pitch and strike everyone out. This was a much bigger factor when he was a prospect in the Diamondbacks organization. He doesn’t do it as much this year, but he did it enough times that it was something that was noticeable and it was hindering his ability to go deep into games; he was throwing a lot of pitches per batter. Ideally a starting pitcher wants to induce a lot of weak contact from batters because it keeps the defense on their toes and most importantly, it keeps the pitch count down, which allows them to go deeper in the game.

On Friday (June 6) was the best start I’ve seen from Bauer all year. The box score doesn’t look impressive as he allowed 4 ER, 5 H and 2 BB over 6.1 innings. However, all those runs came in the second inning with two outs. He got a little unlucky as two hits were a little fluky in nature. After the second inning he only allowed two base runners and struck out five. What was the most impressive is he tried to induce weak contact instead of trying strike every one. If he becomes a dominant pitcher, this is the start I’ll point to as to when he started to become a pitcher.

Like Bauer, when Stroman received his second call-up I extremely anxious to see him  pitch as a starter. After the start I said he would be a top 40 starting pitcher the rest of the year if he stayed in the rotation. Friday’s start wasn’t as impressive as the first start (which is expected considering the quality of teams he faced), but it was still really good. The primary reason why the second start wasn’t as good was because the slider didn’t have the same bite to it. About half balls in play he allowed have been fly balls, which is due to his height. Playing the Rogres Centre and being a fly ball pitcher isn’t ideal, but I think his fastball command is good enough to limit how many balls leave the yard. Overall, he has elite level stuff and has shown really good command and I’m sticking by my original evaluation of a top 40 starting pitcher.