Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Michael Saunders was traded to the Blue Jays and is likely going to be on the better end of a timeshare with Kevin Pillar. Determining how effective he’ll against right handed pitching depends on how big of a sample you want to look at. The table below shows his various numbers against righties including: his career, his career on the road and his aggregated numbers from 2012-14.

In regards to the batting average I think his road numbers are more indicative of what I’m expecting him to hit next year. In fact I think he’ll add 5-10 points because of the home ballpark and the other good AL East ballparks he’ll get to hit in. I also think he’ll hit an extra 2-5 home runs too because of the ballparks.

In 2012 he was one home run away from being a 20/20 player so it’s possible he could still do it again, but I have doubts if the stolen bases can approach those stolen base totals. First, his stolen base totals and stolen base success rate have decreased significantly year-over-year the past three seasons. Second, the Blue Jays ranked 24^th in the majors in stolen base attempts last year; the counter to that is they ranked 6^th in 2013 so it’s possible the team will return to its stealing ways.

If there’s a player who could have a 2012 Josh Reddick breakout season it’s Saunders. I’m projecting a .258 batting average, 22 home runs and 11 stolen bases with 480 plate appearances.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Starling Marte has a very interesting profile because he has a very aggressive approach and subsequently strikes out a lot, but at the same time he hits for a high batting average. He’s done this for two years in a row so it’s reasonable to say this is true talent level and therefore, can be repeated. Last year I wasn’t buying Marte because I thought he BABIPed his way to a good rookie campaign, but after last year I was clearly wrong.

The biggest question I have is there room for improvement with the power? He has a career 14.2% HR/FB rate on the road compared to only 9.7% at home so it’s possible the home ballpark (which is a very pitcher friendly park) is suppressing his power. Marte turned 26 years old in October so it’s possible there’s an uptick in power, but I don’t see it happening. Maybe he has a fluky HR/FB rate, but I wouldn’t bank on it.

In terms of the stolen bases his stolen base success rate was identical the past two seasons (73.2%), which is not high enough to be successful in the long term (80% is the minimum threshold to provide a positive run expectancy over a substantial sample size). That may be why his stolen base attempts decreased so much last year. He has the pure speed to steal 40-plus, but at this point I don’t think I can reasonably expect that next year. That said, stealing bases is a skill that can be learned and improved upon pretty quickly.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

After 2013 I questioned whether or not Christian Yelich could repeat the batting average next year because he had a high .380 BABIP with a 60% ground ball rate. Last year his BABIP dropped to .356 and the ground ball rate was 60%, but he was able to have a similar batting average as 2013.

Even though he only had nine home runs there is room for growth. First, his age; he played the entire season at the age of 22. Usually power comes later as a player matures. Second, the home ballpark may be suppressing his power. He has a career 3.8% HR/FB rate at home compared to 19.3% on the road. We’re still dealing with a small sample size (933 PAs) so we’re not at the point where we can make a more definitive conclusion.

According to some of the scouts at Baseball Prospectus there is room for him to grow into this power:

• Jason Parks: “As he continues to mature and learns the nuances of power, his doubles will start to turn into home runs and he could be a true middle-of-the-lineup threat”
• Nick J. Faleris: “He could reach 20 home runs a year once he is fully matured.”

The question is when will he fully mature into his power? Last year his average home run distance was 412.9 feet. To put that number into context lets look at the average home run distances for players in 2014 (table below).

Based on this data he ranks somewhere in the top 10% of average home run distance among hitters, which indicates when he gets into ball he can really drive it. That said, we’re dealing with only nine home runs so the sample size is small. I think he can grow into some power, but since his ground ball rate is so high the ceiling on the home runs is small. For example, last year he hit 81 fly balls and 272 ground balls. He needs to increase the number of ground balls by at least 20% for him to more than 12 home runs.

Next year I’m projecting him to hit .285 with 12 home runs, 58 RBI, 91 runs and 21 stolen bases.