Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

In mid-December the Astros signed Jed Lowrie to a three-year $23M deal, which is odd because they already have Jose Altuve at second base and Carlos Correa, the former number overall pick, is one year (maybe two) away from becoming the shortstop. Either way, he will be the starting shortstop for the Astros in 2015.

If you compare his 2013 season with 2014 the first number that jumps out is the 38 point decrease in BABIP. The logical conclusion would be the BABIP should positively regress next year and he should hit .280-plus. However, I think the 2013 season was his fluke year in regards to his batting average. Prior to 2014 his career slash line is .261/.331/.423, which represents his true talent level. Therefore, Lowrie did perform poorly, which it wasn’t that far from his true talent level.

He suffered a fractured finger in mid-August and missed two weeks. It’s possible that the injury negatively effected his batting average but it was the opposite. When he returned hit for a high average (.295) but it was mostly an empty batting average as only three of his 28 hits were hit for extra bases. Watching him hit it was obvious he wasn’t able to hit the ball with any authority.

Prior to 2013 he has a career 7.0% HR/FB rate and last year it was 3.2% so positive regression should occur. Unlike with the A’s, Lowrie will probably hit in the bottom third of the lineup or maybe in the sixth spot which means his RBIs and run totals will be suppressed. Overall, he’ll hit 10-plus home runs with a .255-plus batting average without much else.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

In last year’s fantasy guide I was huge believer in Melky Cabrera. In 2013 I wrote that his poor season was due to playing the majority of the season with a tumor on his spine rather than no longer being on PEDs. I thought he would steal more than six bases, but based on where you drafted him you made a tremendous profit.

The question is can he repeat his 2014 season? I was a big fan of him last year and I see no reason why he shouldn’t be able to do it again. Since 2011 (in 2,200 PAs) he has a .309/.351/.458 slash line with 48 home runs and 41 stolen bases. He’s leaving Toronto’s home ballpark, which hurts his value slightly, but you could argue he’s going to better lineup (it all depends on how much you believe in Jose Abreu and if Adam Eaton takes the next step). If Cabrera plays in 140 games he could easily have 110 runs scored to go along with a .295-plus batting average, 12-plus home runs and 5-plus stolen bases.

Cabrera is not a good defender. His range is below average and he takes plays off in the field, but he’s a really good hitter. He can hit righties and lefties at the same clip. He probably won’t steal more than 7-8 bases because his stolen base success rate suggests he’s better off not running especially when Abreu is at the plate he could launch a home run. The cloud of PED use will probably still make him a draft bargain but it won’t be as much as last year.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

For the past three years I’ve been saying David Ortiz is going to eventually decline and even if he doesn’t decline there is no upside and a lot of downside. Obviously I’ve been way wrong, but after a down 2014 I’m jumping on the positive regression bandwagon for Ortiz for 2015.

Last year he had the lowest batting average and BABIP of his Red Sox career (.263 and .256 respectively). Other than age concerns the first thought I had was he lost a lot of hits due to the shift. The table below shows his batting average on balls hit to the right, left and center part of the field since 2008. (These numbers exclude strikeouts, which is why the batting averages are higher than usual).

The numbers tell us that balls hit up the middle is the reason why his batting average was so low last year. It’s possible the shift contributed to the low batting average but if that’s true then why did he have an all-time high in batting average on balls hit to right field? I don’t know the answer, but I’m assuming the batting average positively regresses.

The 35 home runs are going to regress, but I don’t see a major regression occurring. His extra base hit percentage is almost identical to the past three seasons. I wouldn’t draft him expecting 35 home runs, but 25-30 is very reasonable.

I’m projecting 520 ABs, .290 AVG, 27 HRs, 105 RBI, 75 R and 0 SB.