Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Carl Crawford’s 2014 seasons’ numbers are a little misleading as an incredible September heavily inflated those numbers (table below).

When see numbers like that I’m more inclined to believe the larger sample size before the one fluky breakout month. You’ll notice the ground ball rate dropped almost eight percentage points, which indicates he may been making harder contact – maybe because he was finally healthy?

At the end of May he went on the DL with a sprained left ankle; he missed 41 games. In the last four seasons he’s only averaged 96 games played. Even if he’s healthy, which is a big if, he’s going to be platooned against left handed pitching. Last year he was platooned with Scott Van Slyke; the Dodgers also acquired Chris Heisey from the Reds who will also be another platoon candidate. Moving forward Crawford will probably start receiving the Coco Crisp treatment in that he’ll play 90-110 games but there will be a lot of days off in order to keep him healthy.

Overall, I think the batting average regresses to the .280-.289 range and the home runs stay in the 7-10 range. The big wild card is the stolen bases. To his credit he stole roughly the same number of bases before and after the injury (9 and 14 respectively) so it’s reasonable to expect 15 as a floor with room for 25-30. For me Crawford doesn’t provide the upside to warrant taking him in drafts because the likelihood of injury is high I don’t see him performing at the level he did with the Tampa Rays.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Based on the scouting reports I’ve read (here, here and here) Stephen Souza is going to be this year’s Kole Calhoun. First, they both dominated the minors when they were young for the level. Second, they were middling prospects before making it to the majors. It’s important to note that Souza didn’t even make Baseball America’s or Baseball Prospectus’ Top 10 lists for the Nationals before the 2014 season began. Third, the scouting reports are mixed on what he’ll do in the majors. I think the fact the Rays got him also enhances his perceived fantasy value because there’s still this narrative in the fantasy community that if the Rays did then it’s super smart. Of course, forget the fact they haven’t produced any quality Major Leaguers from any of their drafts since 2008.

Obviously the Rays must have liked Souza a lot if they were willing to trade Wil Myers for him. It’s also important the Rays organization has had more looks at Souza than the aforementioned the authors of the aforementioned scouting reports. His numbers in Triple-A last year were really good, but he was able to put up those numbers with a .398 BABIP. If a player in the majors had a .398 BABIP we would all be saying major regression is coming. I think he could be a 15/15 player but I don’t think the batting average is going to be really high (he still plays in an extreme pitcher’s park).

Some fantasy owners are already saying he’s a 20/20 candidate, which is crazy to me. Last year there were only five players who had 20/20 seasons … seriously, only five! For someone to expect a career “old” (he turns 26 at the end of April) minor leaguer to come to majors and put up those types of numbers is crazy to me.

His hype is also going to be fueled by the simple fact he has not failed yet in the majors. Last year every one loved Brad Miller (I also could have said Chris Owings) so much they were taking him over stable and unspectacular players like Neil Walker and Erik Aybar. Now no one is going to want to draft Miller because of how much he sucked last year. Sure, it’s possible he could put up a 20/20 season, but for me, if a player has that potential he would have made it to the majors three, four years ago.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

It’s hard to forget Bryce Harper just turned 22 years old this past October. For a lot of top tier prospects they’re entering Double-A at the age of 22, but Harper is performing at the Major League level.

For two years in a row Harper has missed a substantial amount of time due to injury. What’s interesting is both of those injuries came on fluke plays. Last year he tore a ligament in his thumb sliding into a base and in 2013 it was because he ran into a wall while playing a fly ball. Usually I like players staying healthy in the future if the injuries are fluky rather than tissue-based injuries, but since he plays the game so hard the likelihood of him sustaining a fluky injury is higher.

Starting on April 26, 2014 he missed 57 games with the torn ligament in his thumb. For the first 25 games of the season he struggled, hitting only .232. When he came off the DL on June 30 it was obvious he wasn’t 100% when he came back from the DL because he was rolling over on a lot of balls he would’ve crushed. When August rolled around he caught fire. In the last two months of the season he hit .283 with a .805 OPS and ten home runs.

Also, his strikeout rate increased dramatically last year as it rose seven percentage points (from 18.9% to 26.3%). You may be thinking a lot of that increase occurred when he first came back from the DL, but he struck out 26.9% the last two months of the season.

If you look at his three Major League seasons he has hit between .270-.274 every year so it’s natural to project him to have a batting average in that range in 2015. However, last year he was able to hit .273 last year with an incredibly high .352 BABIP. The BABIP was fueled by a .333 batting average on ground balls. The two years prior he only hit .240 on ground balls. If the high strikeout rate continues to be north of the 25% may only be a .250 hitter next year.

Since Harper is so young and has missed big chunks of the past two seasons it’s hard to get a gauge what his current true talent really is. He has the raw physical tools to be the best fantasy player in baseball, which makes him intriguing on draft day. If he can play in 145-plus games he easily hits 26 home runs with room for more and if Matt Williams doesn’t bat him seventh all year he could have 90-plus RBIs.