Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Shelby Miller may have an average ERA by the year ended but his season was saved by the month of the September. The table below breaks down his 2014 ERA and WHIP by month.

Overall, his 2014 season was the complete opposite of the year prior. He struck out far less batters and walked much more batters. The reason why he struggled so much last year was the cliché of bad command. I wrote about his command throughout the season last year (here and here). Despite the poor command this is someone worth taking a chance on in deeper formats because he has at one time had really good raw stuff.

In last year’s guide I thought he could sustain his 2013 success if the changeup took a step forward because I believe starting pitchers three quality pitches to be effective and I had a huge concern about his ability to get lefties out. However, last year he threw it less and opted to throw the cutter, which was a really good weapon against righties.

Last year his curveball was one of the worst in the majors. His whiff-per-swing rate with the pitch was the lowest among 74 qualifying righties. I’m not convinced the cutter is a good enough third pitch. Without a third pitch the curveball becomes less effective and if the curveball isn’t effective then the fastball will not be as effective. I think 2015 is going to be a developmental year. If he comes at a discount in a deeper format I’ll take a chance on him because I still believe in the mystique of the Braves, but I’m not going to target him in drafts.

My 2015 projection for Miller is 190 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 140 Ks and 10 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Last year Collin McHugh literally came out of nowhere and one was of the best starting pitchers in baseball. For example he was and/or had the (all stats are for pitchers with at least 25 starts last year):

• 6^th lowest WHIP
• 16^th lowest ERA
• 9^th best strikeout rate
• 8^th best swing and mix percentage on pitches in the strike zone

Generally speaking what happened last year was he got better. Sometimes players can inexplicably “get it” without any warning or indication. The greatest personification of this was Cliff Lee. He was literally below average for the first six seasons in the majors before the light turned on and became an ace. I’m not indicating McHugh is going to be an ace, but what I am saying is it’s possible for players to get dramatically better.

What I love about McHugh is he can throw 3-4 pitches for strikes consistently against both sides of the plate. On top of that he throws those pitches at the same arm slot, which allows each pitch to play-up, which delays the hitters ability to know what pitch is coming; hence the 8^th best swing and miss percentage on pitches in the strike zone. To put that number into perspective some of the the guys ahead of him are: Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels and Max Scherzer. Lastly, his fastball velocity ticked up almost two mph since 2012. Doug Thorburn wrote an amazing piece about why he also believes in McHugh as well.

It’s easy to look at the low BABIP and high strand rate and say he’s going to regress, but I do not believe that is going to happen. McHugh has the best shot to be this year’s Corey Kluber. The Astros are not going to be a bad team next year. They signed two very good relievers and they offense is going to have a lot of right handed power. If things break right McHugh could find himself with 15-plus wins next year.

My 2015 projection for McHugh is 190 IP, 3.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 190 Ks and 14 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Last year I wasn’t a Zack Wheeler believer because of his inconsistent command from batter to batter in his brief showcase in 2013. Specifically, I thought he walked way too many batters and the fact he would have too many long at-bats against batters (i.e. 7-8-9 hitters) he should be able to get out in 1-3 pitches.

At the start of 2014 he changed his delivery for the better. He reduced some of the movement in his delivery, which helped him make his delivery more repeatable. This alteration helped, but he still struggled with the walks. Last year he was 4^th in the majors in walks allowed.

When I saw him pitch I only saw a thrower and not a pitcher. From start to start I saw him make the same mistakes over and over again, which isn’t atypical for a young pitcher. An example of this was he would always struggle throwing the fastball on the outer half of the plate to righties. Another example is in two strike counts he would throw the slider down in the dirt to try to get batters to swing and miss, which batters wouldn’t do. The reason is hitters know it’s going to be a ball when the ball leaves the hand.

The positive takeaway is all of these things are correctable. The question is can he make the necessary adjustments. He has stuff for days; the fastball sits in the mid-90s and can reach 98-99 mph; the curveball and slider that can miss bats on both sides of the plate.

Some fantasy owners may be swayed by his second half numbers, but upon closer inspection it looks like he got lucky with the ERA because the walk rate and strike percentage were essentially the same as the first half.

Wheeler has the upside to be a top 20 fantasy pitcher if everything clicks, but from what I saw last year I don’t see that happening. I am very curious to see what he his ADP is next year. My guess is he’ll likely be drafted in the 40-50 range in mixed leagues, which is too high for me because the likelihood of him putting it all together is less than 25%. If he slips to the 60s I’ll gladly roll the dice.

My 2015 projection for Wheeler is 200 IP, 195 Ks, 3.55 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 12 wins.