Reliever Fantasy Baseball Tiered Rankings

by Matt Commins Posted on February 16, 2015

Welcome to the position tiered rankings for 2015. The tiers are broken out into five tiers with five being the highest and one being the lowest. Five star players are players that will be taken in the first couple of rounds or will go for $30-plus. Four star players will have $20-plus. Three stars $10-plus, two stars $5-plus and the one star are players you want to avoid or players to stash on your bench.

The statistics for each player are my semi-final projections. The projections are going to change going forward, but if you follow me on Twitter @MattCommins I will tweet out when my projections are updated and posted on MattCommins.com. If I was a reader I would focus on the tiering of players and the overall idea of the projections. For example, if I project a player for 28 home runs that means I think he’ll hit for a lot of power.

Links the other position previews:

I used to believe the adage of “never pay for saves.” I followed this strategy blindly for years, but in the last two years I’ve had better results (in roto and H2H) drafting closers early in drafts. The primary reasons why I love this strategy is because how many more strikeouts, the saves they provide, the benefits to my pitching staff’s ratios and the added roster flexibility.

If I’m in a 10-team mixed league I want at least one five star, one four star and one two star closer. If it’s a 12-team or 15-team mixed league I want one five start and one four star. Having top flight closers allows you to set it and forget it. By that mean I mean you will have 2-3 pitchers that will be locked in your lineup the entire season, which will allow you to use your bench for streaming pitchers and/or to have high upside hitters.

Five Star

Player IP ERA WHIP SO W SV
Craig Kimbrel 63 1.60 0.91 97 3 43
Greg Holland 66 1.30 0.97 95 2 45
Dellin Betances 70 1.56 0.84 115 3 35
Kenley Jansen 66 2.15 0.99 102 2 45
Aroldis Chapman 65 2.00 0.98 115 2 40

Five-Star Value Pick: Dellin Betances

If I knew Dellin Betances was going to be the closer the entire year he would be my number one closer because he has the best combination of raw stuff and team quality.

Four Star

Player IP ERA WHIP SO W SV
Mark Melancon 71 1.90 0.93 70 2 43
Joaquin Benoit 61 1.94 0.95 78 2 38
David Robertson 65 2.67 1.05 90 2 39
Trevor Rosenthal 70 2.85 1.30 90 2 43
Steve Cishek 67 2.60 1.10 77 4 35
Cody Allen 70 2.35 1.07 90 2 35

Four-Star Value Pick: Trevor Rosenthal

Trevor Rosenthal had great season in 2013, but in 2014 his command regressed immensely (specifically the fastball). Of all the pitchers in this tier he has the highest likelihood of finishing the year in the five star category. For that to happen the command has to improve. In 2013 the command was there, which gives me a lot of optimism.

Three Star

Player IP ERA WHIP SO W SV
Fernando Rodney 67 2.96 1.34 75 4 37
Glen Perkins 62 2.60 1.10 70 2 35
Sean Doolittle 61 2.77 0.92 96 2 26
Huston Street 60 2.55 1.01 55 2 35
Drew Storen 60 2.51 1.04 50 2 35
Jonathan Papelbon 63 2.50 1.10 60 3 31
Koji Uehara 50 2.50 0.94 69 2 29
Hector Rondon 63 2.50 1.06 65 2 29

Three-Star Value Pick: Drew Storen

The Nationals should be the best team in the NL and I’m probably projecting too few saves for Drew Storen (because I’m not 100% certain sure he’ll keep the job if he struggles), but if he’s the closer the entire season he could have the most saves of any pitcher in 2015.

Two Star

Player IP ERA WHIP SO W SV
Brad Boxberger 65 2.38 0.90 80 3 17
Zach Britton 75 2.90 1.25 62 3 26
Tyler Clippard 70 2.50 0.96 80 3 14
Joe Nathan 60 3.69 1.40 54 4 30
Santiago Casilla 55 2.10 1.05 45 2 24
Jenry Mejia 60 2.60 1.10 70 2 20
Neftali Feliz 50 3.01 1.03 50 2 25
Luke Gregerson 69 2.31 1.05 60 3 16
Jake McGee 47 2.50 0.99 60 2 20
Jonatan Broxton 55 2.80 1.23 53 2 25

Two-Star Value Pick: Brad Boxberger

Jake McGee had arthroscopic surgery on his elbow in December and the latest update is he may be ready sometime in April. Any time a pitcher is recovering from elbow surgery the timeline is always fluid and rarely goes as scheduled. Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if Brad Boxberger, the best reliever the Rays have, becomes the closer the entire year.

One Star

Player IP ERA WHIP SO W SV
LaTroy Hawkins 56 3.50 1.20 35 3 28
Addison Reed 60 3.90 1.20 68 2 24
Brett Cecil 60 2.99 1.27 71 2 20
Kevin Jepsen 50 2.88 1.28 65 2 17
Eric O’Flaherty 60 2.40 1.01 45 3 10
Chad Qualls 55 3.01 1.19 45 2 16
Bobby Parnell 40 2.50 1.10 30 2 15

One-Star Value Pick: Brett Cecil

As of mid-February the Blue Jays do not have a “proven” closer on their roster. With all the acquisitions they made in the offseason says they’re going to try to win the division this year and I believe they have a really good chance of achieving that. Therefore, they are going to win a lot of games, which means whoever is the closer will have many save opportunities. Even though Cecil is left handed he doesn’t have a major platoon split and is the best reliever in the bullpen, which makes him the front runner for saves.

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Outfield Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings

by Matt Commins Posted on February 14, 2015

Welcome to the position tiered rankings for 2015. The tiers are broken out into five tiers with five being the highest and one being the lowest. Five star players are players that will be taken in the first couple of rounds or will go for $30-plus. Four star players will have $20-plus. Three stars $10-plus, two stars $5-plus and the one star are players you want to avoid or players to stash on your bench.

The statistics for each player are my semi-final projections. The projections are going to change going forward, but if you follow me on Twitter @MattCommins I will tweet out when my projections are updated and posted on MattCommins.com. If I was a reader I would focus on the tiering of players and the overall idea of the projections. For example, if I project a player for 28 home runs that means I think he’ll hit for a lot of power.

Links the other position previews:

The state of the outfield position depends a lot on how deep your league is. Since there are so many high upside two star players you can wait to draft an outfielder in the later rounds in a 10-team mixed league. For example, if I drafted two outfielders early in my draft I would fill out my other positions before filling out the other three outfielders. If I was in a 12-team mixed league I want to make sure I have at least three players from the first four tiers. Lastly, when I look at the players in the Two Star category except for three players (Ben Revere, Denard Span and Nick Markakis) I can envision scenarios where all of them finish the year in the Four Star category.

Five Star

Player AB AVG HR RBI R SB
Mike Trout 600 .293 36 113 115 16
Andrew McCutchen 575 .315 24 88 90 20
Carlos Gomez 560 .284 23 79 94 35
Giancarlo Stanton 520 .270 38 106 90 8

Five-Star Value Pick: Carlos Gomez

As of now I have Andrew McCutchen rated higher than Carlos Gomez but as it gets closer to draft time I may rate Gomez higher because Gomez may be safer in stolen bases. Also, I would be shocked if McCutchen only stole 10-15 bases, but at the same time I wouldn’t be shocked if he hits 30-plus home runs too.

Four Star

Player AB AVG HR RBI R SB
Michael Brantley 580 .301 16 92 92 21
Jacoby Ellsbury 575 .285 15 80 80 39
Adam Jones 640 .283 29 95 90 10
Carlos Gonzalez 450 .298 22 86 79 16
Yasiel Puig 560 .275 22 90 90 11
Starling Marte 530 .285 13 74 67 35
Jose Bautista 500 .265 29 89 89 5
Jayson Werth 520 .292 20 85 85 7
Justin Upton 560 .259 25 85 90 12
Charlie Blackmon 570 .283 15 70 89 20
Corey Dickerson 550 .284 19 85 86 10
Jason Heyward 550 .283 16 85 70 21
George Springer 550 .232 28 84 84 22
Hunter Pence 625 .271 18 90 85 12
Shin-Soo Choo 550 .284 20 65 96 10
Melky Cabrera 560 .301 15 66 100 5
Bryce Harper 550 .265 27 88 79 7

Four-Star Value Pick: Starling Marte

I would have projected more runs and RBIs for Starling Marte, but I think he’s going to bat fifth (he should be batting second) and the lineup after him is going to be really bad. If he played most other teams he would bat third because his offensive talents are that good.

Three Star

Player AB AVG HR RBI R SB
Christian Yelich 600 .285 12 58 91 21
Matt Holliday 540 .290 19 97 84 2
Billy Hamilton 560 .245 6 45 79 55
Alex Gordon 570 .265 19 76 88 11
Nelson Cruz 580 .265 23 105 70 2
Yoenis Cespedes 500 .271 22 86 70 7
Rusney Castillo 500 .245 17 70 70 30
Gregory Polanco 520 .252 12 68 68 35
Alex Rios 550 .274 14 70 70 20
Josh Reddick 500 .265 20 80 80 7
Avisail Garcia 540 .262 18 85 65 15
Matt Kemp 540 .279 19 80 73 5
Michael Saunders 480 .258 22 75 75 11
Brett Gardner 550 .264 9 60 92 21
Adam Eaton 550 .275 4 55 94 23

Three-Star Value Pick: A.J. Pollock

What’s not to like about A.J. Pollock? He’s a five category producer who plays in very hitter friendly ballpark. If Paul Goldschmidt is fully healthy Pollock would score 90-plus runs.

Two Star

Player AB AVG HR RBI R SB
Austin Jackson 580 .264 9 50 84 28
Marcell Ozuna 550 .257 23 85 68 5
Denard Span 590 .281 4 44 85 25
Kole Calhoun 525 .272 14 60 94 4
Steven Souza 500 .255 18 65 65 18
Ben Revere 550 .298 0 29 70 35
Ryan Braun 470 .274 15 70 70 9
Carlos Beltran 510 .255 20 84 76 1
Joc Pederson 500 .259 14 65 65 20
Mookie Betts 500 .284 7 58 68 20
Yasmany Tomas 500 .248 24 70 70 7
Khris Davis 500 .252 24 75 68 4
Wil Myers 500 .266 17 75 69 4

Two-Star Value Pick: Marcell Ozuna & Steven Souza

Marcell Ozuna’s power is legit and he has the speed to steal 10-plus bases if wanted to. Maybe this is the year he has a Todd Frazier season and starts stealing bases unexpectedly. Without looking at my projections what is the difference in upside between Kole Calhoun and Steven Souza? For me, there isn’t much of a difference, Calhoun is going to go far earlier before Souza.

One Star

Player AB AVG HR RBI R SB
Oswaldo Arcia 500 .259 23 78 62 1
Lorenzo Cain 500 .261 6 65 65 23
Curtis Granderson 530 .238 23 70 70 8
Torii Hunter 530 .281 15 77 66 2
Desmond Jennings 500 .250 12 46 78 20
Dayan Viciedo 520 .254 21 75 65 0
Dexter Fowler 500 .275 10 45 75 13
Leonys Martin 510 .270 8 53 38 32
Jorge Soler 500 .251 20 77 62 2
Carl Crawford 400 .283 8 45 68 16
Michael Cuddyer 400 .270 15 59 59 10
Dalton Pompey 500 .255 9 55 55 25
Dustin Ackley 520 .262 13 60 65 10
Colby Rasmus 440 .220 26 65 65 4
Norichika Aoki 540 .279 3 40 70 17
Alejandro De Aza 460 .263 10 49 60 16
Domonic Brown 480 .259 14 66 52 7
David Peralta 420 .271 9 45 60 10
Angel Pagan 400 .285 5 33 60 15
B.J. Upton 500 .221 14 55 52 22
Jarrod Dyson 270 .263 1 35 35 35
Josh Hamilton 400 .242 15 65 55 1
Rajai Davis 350 .258 4 39 30 30
Matt Joyce 400 .240 13 55 55 3
Anthony Gose 420 .235 3 45 45 25

One-Star Value Pick: Matt Joyce & Oswaldo Arcia           

As of mid-February I may be too low on Matt Joyce. If Josh Hamilton misses a lot of time Joyce could hit fifth behind Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. I don’t see a lot of upside in Joyce, but I definitely like his opportunity. Oswaldo Arcia, who will only turn 24 in May, has tremendous power and I wouldn’t be surprised if hit 30-plus home runs in 2015.

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Third Base Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings

by Matt Commins Posted on February 12, 2015

Welcome to the position tiered rankings for 2015. The tiers are broken out into five tiers with five being the highest and one being the lowest. Five star players are players that will be taken in the first couple of rounds or will go for $30-plus. Four star players will have $20-plus. Three stars $10-plus, two stars $5-plus and the one star are players you want to avoid or players to stash on your bench.

The statistics for each player are my semi-final projections. The projections are going to change going forward, but if you follow me on Twitter @MattCommins I will tweet out when my projections are updated and posted on MattCommins.com. If I was a reader I would focus on the tiering of players and the overall idea of the projections. For example, if I project a player for 28 home runs that means I think he’ll hit for a lot of power.

Links the other position previews:

What you will find below are the fantasy tiers for third basemen. This is a fairly shallow position where it’s very important to grab someone in the top two tiers. if you do not get one of those players you’re throwing a hail mary. If I were to wait for a third baseman I would draft two of them and hope one of them pans out.

Five Star

Player AB AVG HR RBI R SB
Josh Donaldson 585 .280 30 102 95 5

Five-Star Value Pick: Josh Donaldson

Josh Donaldson has been a MVP caliber player the past two years and he should be able to continue to be great, but I have minor quibble about what kind of toll playing on artificial turf will have on his ability to stay healthy.

Four Star

Player AB AVG HR RBI R SB
Adrian Beltre 575 .295 19 93 86 1
Nolan Arenado 550 .295 24 86 78 2
Ryan Zimmerman 530 .285 23 85 85 1
Kyle Seager 590 .264 22 90 74 5
Evan Longoria 575 .267 22 90 77 2
Pablo Sandoval 550 .285 18 90 74 0

Four-Star Value Pick: Nolan Arenado

It’s really hard for me to not pick Kyle Seager because I’ve believed in him for years, but Nolan Arenado has the higher ceiling. If Seager played in a neutral ballpark I would take him, but it’s too hard to pass on Arenado. He plays in the best hitters ballpark and has the tools to more than a product of Coors Field.

Player AB AVG HR RBI R SB
Matt Carpenter 600 .284 10 61 105 3
David Wright 500 .278 14 77 65 11
Alex Rodriguez 520 .245 23 72 72 9
Yasmany Tomas 500 .248 24 70 70 7
Josh Harrison 500 .279 8 53 73 19
Manny Machado 500 .278 15 68 71 1

Three-Star Value Pick: Matt Carpenter

Alex Rodriguez made the list because the Yankees are saying he’s going to be their everyday DH. A lot can change at Spring Training, but as of now he’s on the list. If you’re looking for 100-plus runs then look no further than Matt Carpenter. The Cardinals offense is going to be vastly improved with the addition of Jason Heyward and since Heyward has such a high OBP there are going to be many instances where Carpenter will be on second base a lot with zero outs.

Two Star

Player AB AVG HR RBI R SB
Pedro Alvarez 400 .240 28 64 60 4
Chase Headley 500 .265 15 66 66 7
Kris Bryant 400 .242 20 66 66 5
Aramis Ramirez 500 .281 15 69 49 1

Two-Star Value Pick: Chase Headley

If I knew Kris Bryant was going to be in the majors to begin the season he would be my pick, but as of right now his playing time is up in the air. Chase Headley isn’t going to hit 31 home runs again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a 15/15 player with a .280-plus batting average.

One Star

Player AB AVG HR RBI R SB
Trevor Plouffe 500 .257 14 61 71 2
Matt Dominguez 550 .241 22 75 55 0
Nick Castellanos 550 .255 15 67 53 2
Lonnie Chisenhall 400 .260 12 55 60 2
David Freese 460 .261 9 60 55 1
Luis Valbuena 470 .240 15 50 55 1

One-Star Value Pick: Trevor Plouffe

I like Trevor Plouffe because I know what I’m going to be getting when I draft him. He’s going to be unspectacular, but I can count on a solid batting average with 12-17 home runs.

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