Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

After releasing my 2015 fantasy guide, which you can download for free, I took a much needed break. After I got to recharge the batter I’m proud to share my 12-team mixed league action values (for redraft leagues). If you have any questions about my valuations you can reach me on Twitter @MattCommins.

You can download my values here.

Before downloading please read my methodology. I believe in the SGP method to determine my values. I’ve looked at the PVM and Standard Deviation models, but SGP method makes the most inherent and practical sense. I do not believe there is a 100% accurate way to generate values.

My values are based on a 70%/30% allocation for hitting and pitching respectively. The commonly used breakout is 67%/33%, which is totally fine. However, since I’ve been playing fantasy baseball for more than ten years I know my strength is finding pitching on the waiver wire so my draft strategy is to be as aggressive as possible with hitters because I know I can find pitching later in the season.

When you download my values you’ll notice there are no $1 players and the total doesn’t add up to $3,120 (assuming each player has a budget of $260). That’s because I used mono (i.e. AL or NL-only) league values. “But Matt your values are for mixed leagues, not mono leagues!” I’ve tried creating auction values with mixed league formulas, but I haven’t found a way to provide values that accurately reflect how much players will go for in drafts.

For example, my mixed league values say Mike Trout is worth $32. My AL-only value says he’s worth $41.5. Of the two values he’ll likely go between $41-45 on draft day. So instead of continuing to find the proper mixed league formula I’ve decided to use mono values and create a rule of thumb for my valuations for mixed leagues. This is the same rule of thumb I used last year and I had really good results.

That rule of thumb can be found in the tables below. If a hitter is valued between $26-30 then he’ll likely go for a $1-7 discount during the auction. The goal of the draft is to accumulate as much value as possible for the lowest cost. Therefore, my minimum discount is $7. These tables are largely based Larry Schechter’s book: Winning Fantasy Baseball.

Lastly, you’ll find my system for evaluating catchers. Catcher is the only position that truly is scarce. The reason why I say that is because if you have $1 left you’ll get much more value drafting any other hitter than a catcher with that $1.

It is my great pleasure (and relief) to announce my 2015 fantasy baseball guide is available for you to download for free!

Odds are you’re going to not read this section, but I wanted to explain what you will get when you download. The majority of the guide is focused on player evaluation (344 players to be exact). The goal was I wanted to evaluate every player that will most likely be drafted in a 15-team mixed redraft league.

I evaluated each player through the lens of a detective. I want to know how his statistics were accumulated. Did he deviate from his statistical mean? For example, if a pitcher struck out more batters than ever before then how did he do it? If a hitter hit more home runs than ever before then how did he do it? The idea behind my approach to player evaluation is to think for myself and remove myself from ill-conceived narratives.

My goal is after someone reads my evaluation on a player the reader should know how I came to my 2015 projection.

My projections are based on what’s most likely to happen in a season. Another way to put it is if the 2015 season was played 100 times what would be the average of all those seasons. If you have any questions you can reach me on Twitter @MattCommins. Enjoy!

2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide

Hitter and Pitcher Projections & Rankings

Welcome to the position tiered rankings for 2015. The tiers are broken out into five tiers with five being the highest and one being the lowest. Five star players are players that will be taken in the first couple of rounds or will go for $30-plus. Four star players will have $20-plus. Three stars $10-plus, two stars $5-plus and the one star are players you want to avoid or players to stash on your bench.

The statistics for each player are my semi-final projections. The projections are going to change going forward, but if you follow me on Twitter @MattCommins I will tweet out when my projections are updated and posted on MattCommins.com. If I was a reader I would focus on the tiering of players and the overall idea of the projections. For example, if I project a player for 28 home runs that means I think he’ll hit for a lot of power.

Links the other position previews:

• Catcher
• First Base
• Second Base
• Third Base
• Shortstop
• Outfield
• Relief Pitcher/Closer
  
• Starting Pitcher

The value of the starting position depends dramatically on the size of your league. Before I say anything else every fantasy owner should ask themselves one question: am I confident I will be able to find breakout pitchers on the waiver wire? If you’re a casual player I recommend paying for higher end pitchers in your drafts. If you read and/or watch a lot of baseball then I recommend drafting 1-2 four star pitchers and wait to fill out your rotation.

Overall, pitching is extremely deep. Some pitchers have strong injury concerns coming into the season and for me, I’m avoiding them in my drafts because this position is so deep. The last thing I want to begin the season with injured players clogging my bench.

Lastly, pitchers with a “*” next to their names mean I added replacement level statistics to my original projection for each player. By replacement level I mean a player that should be available on the waiver wire throughout the year. The replacement level player I used was Jason Hammel. For example I only projected 160 innings for Johnny Cueto and I added 40 innings from Hammel.

Five Star

Five-Star Value Pick: Max Scherzer

Of all the pitchers in this list Max Scherzer could be the most likely (other than Clayton Kershaw) pitcher to win 20 games next year. I have Felix Hernandez ranked ahead of Scherzer now, but it’s very likely I’ll rank Scherzer higher because of how many more wins he’ll have.

Four Star

Four-Star Value Pick: Collin McHugh

Everything about Collin McHugh’s game is real and most importantly repeatable. The primary reason is all of his pitches are thrown from the same arm slot, which makes his pitches difficult to pick up out of the hand. Therefore, it’s no surprise he ranked 10^th among starting pitchers in swinging strikes percentage.

Three Star

Mike Minor struggled last year and the primary reason why he struggled was due to the injury he suffered in the offseason. The injury he suffered was minor, but it forced him to change his training regimen. Since he wasn’t able to train on his schedule he rushed his comeback and subsequently caused him to suffer another injury. This offseason he’s healthy and I expect a big rebound.

Two Star

Two-Star Value Pick: Derek Holland

Derek Holland lost most of last year to a fluke injury, which is causing a lot of fantasy owners to forget about how good he was and the big steps he took in 2013. In a brief stint in the 2014 the command improved even more, which provides optimism he could continue to take another step forward.

One Star

One-Star Value Pick: Trevor Bauer

I watched all of Trevor Bauer’s starts last year and my conclusion is this: he’s incredibly talented and inconsistent. When he’s on he can be one of the most dominant starters in baseball. When he doesn’t have command of his fastball he walks a lot of batters and is very hittable.