Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

After a great first start of the year there was a lot of anticipation for Drew Pomeranz’s start in Houston. Before the season began I wasn’t buying Pomeranz as a starting pitcher for two reasons. The first being he’s only a two-pitch pitcher. The second and most important is he’s a fastball and curveball pitcher. With that repertoire the fastball command has to be at least 60 (on the scouting scale). The success of his curveball is dependent upon his fastball command. Basically, if hitters aren’t waiting for a fastball then the slow breaking pitch won’t fool them. Last year Pomeranz didn’t have good fastball command and I thought his ERA was fluky. In his first start of 2015 Pomeranz threw the fastball for strikes 72% of the time and he put up great numbers. Yesterday only 63% of the time and he got lit up. For a reference, as a starter last year he only threw the fastball 63% of the time for strikes. ForI’m curious to see how he looks in next start (at the Angels), but as of right now I’m not buying him until he starts throwing more strikes with the fastball.

LIke Pomeranz I wasn’t high on Taijuan Walker entering the season. My biggest concerns was his ability to throw strikes consistently and whether or not he would he would have a quality secondary pitch to keep hitters off his fastball. Specifically, he has a great fastball and cutter, but they’re thrown at the same velocity. In for those pitches to play up he needs another secondary pitch that’s thrown at a slower velocity. For my money the split-changeup has the best chance to be that pitch. I’ve seen a couple of good ones, but overall it’s still well below average. He can’t throw it for strikes consistently, which means hitters will eliminate that pitch (because if they see it’s a split-change they know it won’t be a strike and they won’t swing) and will look for the fastball and that point it doesn’t matter how fast the ball is thrown. If you watch the at-bats of hitters you’ll notice they’re all waiting (hunting) for the fastball. If I own Walker I’m leaving him on my bench until I see better command of his secondary pitches.

Brandon Morrow has looked really good in his first two starts of the year. The question is the performance sustainable? Obviously injury is always going to be a major question mark with him, but if he were able to stay healthy Morrow is going to have fantasy value. This year he’s not throwing the fastball as much, opting to have his secondary pitches set up his fastball. What’s impressed me is the fastball command; he’s throwing strikes 69% of the time. Since he’s throwing the strikes with the fastball it’s allowing his secondary pitches to play up and generate swings and misses. He’s faced two really bad offenses in the Giants and Diamondbacks so I want to wait and see how he looks against better competition. He’s not going to continue to have a sub-2.oo ERA, but he’s going to have a 3.30-3.45 ERA with enough strikeouts to matter in 12-team mixed leagues. At this point he’s a stream option based on the matchup.

Yasmany Tomas was called up and if you own AJ Pollock or Jake Lamb I would be very concerned. Since the Diamondbacks spent so much money on Tomas I have to assume he eventually gets an opportunity to play every day. Judging by what all the scouts are saying it will probably come in the outfield. If that happens the outfield is going to become very crowded. Mark Trumbo is going to play every day in right and if Tomas is playing in left that means Pollock will have to share time with Ender Inciarte.

I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.

I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.

My Strategy

To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.

With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.

Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.

Last Note

This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.

My Lineup

• P: Matt Harvey (NYM) vs. D. Buchannon (PHI) — $9,300
  
• P: Jake Arrieta (CHC) vs. A. DeSclafani (CIN) — $4,700
  
• C: Carlos Santana (CLE) vs. J. Quintana (CHW) — $4,100
  
• 1B: Steve Pearce (BAL) vs. CC Sabathia (WSH) — $4,000
  
• 2B: Mike Aviles (CLE) vs. J. Quintana (CHW) — $3,200
  
• 3B: Pedro Alvarez (PIT) vs. S. Greene (DET) — $4,300
  
• SS: Hidden
  
• OF: Mike Trout (LAA) vs. N. Martinez (TEX) — $6,000
• OF: Hidden
  
• OF: Hidden

I went with a stars and scrubs approach. I wanted to lock up my pitching with Matt Harvey and Jake Arrieta. Originally I had Hisashi Iwakuma but I had money left over and went with Harvey instead. I wasn’t as impressed as most people with Harvey’s first start of the year, but he was still really good and he should be able to handle the Phillies lineup. Steve Pearce is batting fourth and has been a much better hitter against lefties in his career. I expect a lot of runs to be scored in the Angels-Rangers game, which is why I went with Mike Trout. Mike Avilies is batting second and like Pearce, is a much better hitter against lefties. I really like Shane Greene, but I’m not sold he’s figured out a way to get lefties out, which is why I went with Pedro Alvarez.

Jake Odorizzi began his season with a bang with a stellar second start of the year. Unlike the first the first start of the year he opted to throw split-changeup less and the cutter more. This is significant because by throwing the cutter he was able to generate more ground balls and get outs more quickly. Last year he only averaged 5.1 innings per start and ranked 15^th among starting pitchers in strikeout rate. The reason why he didn’t go deep into games was due to pitch inefficiency, but it was that inefficiency that led to the high strikeout rate.

The fact both of his starts have been much longer than 5.1 innings is great, but it looks as though it’s going to come at the expense of the strikeout rate. It’s only two starts so it’s hard to gleam any significant takeaways. The bottom line is he is evolving as a pitcher.

Mark Canha has played in six straight games at both left field and first base. He’s going to play first base against lefties and left field against righties. He’s not a good defender at either position, but he’s hitting and making hard contact. He’s not going to continue to hit .300-plus, but I can see a .250-.260 batting average with 20-plus home runs assuming everyday at-bats. With Canha playing a lot means Craig Gentry will again be relegated to a platoon player against lefties.

Jason Grilli had an extremely shaky outing against the Marlins, allowing three hitters to reach base. It’s a matter of time before his luck runs out and he’s removed as the closer. Jim Johnson has actually looked so far this season. If I’m a Grilli owner and I have the bench spot I would add Johnson.

I caught a couple of the innings of the Brandon McCarthy start and despite the box score I would remain patient with him. The home run to Nelson Cruz was a little fluky as the pitch was down and away and Nelson just flipped the bat out and the ball landed in the first two rows. The stuff is still there and he’s been unlucky with the BABIP.