Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.

I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.

My Strategy

To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.

With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.

Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.

Last Note

This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.

My 50/50 Lineup

• P: Francisco Liriano (PIT) — $8,900
  
• P: James Shields (SD) — $9,500
  
• C: Andrew Susac (SF) — $3,100
  
• 1B: Freddie Freeman (ATL) — $4,900
  
• 2B: Alex Guerrero (LAD) — $2,700
  
• 3B: Miguel Cabrera (DET) — $4,900
  
• SS: Hidden
  
• OF: Ryan Braun (MIL) — $4,900 Mike Trout (LAA) —$5,100
  
• OF: Hidden
  
• OF: Hidden

I would have won yesterday’s 50/50 if Stephen Strasburg didn’t get lit up, but you know what they say; do not let a bad beat get the best of you and get back up on the horse. Choosing two pitchers was a bigger challenge than I thought because all the “elite” pitchers had warts. Matt Harvey didn’t look good in his last outing and despite what the overall numbers say the command hasn’t been that sharp. Cole Hamels is walking 11 percent of batters and that number was not fueled by 1-2 starts. He’s walking a lot of batters each outing. I went with Francisco Liriano because he’s facing the Phillies and the lineup is fairly left handed. Of all the elite pitchers I’m the most confident James Shields should be able to provide 7 innings, 0-2 ER with 6-plus strikeouts. All that said, I’m not very confident with my pitchers. Liriano walks a lot of batters and Shields’s has been giving up a lot of home runs.

If Alex Guerrero is going to continue to be priced this cheaply he’s always going to be in my lineup. I don’t know why the Giants are not playing Andrew Susac that much, but in his brief Major League career he’s mashed lefties (.325/.413/.575) with a lot of hard contact. Overall, I’m choosing hitters who make a lot of hard contact because they have the highest probability to hit home runs.

I’m sure every fantasy writer and/or blogger is going to throw their two cents about what they thought of Noah Syndergaard and I’m going to as well. If he’s able to make to 22-23 starts this year his floor is a top 60 starting pitcher and his ceiling is a top 10 starting pitcher. He’ll likely be a top 40 pitcher, but I love what I saw tonight in Chicago. If he’s available on waivers and you play with FAAB I would spend 20-30 percent of my budget to acquire him.

The delivery is very simple and repeatable, which will allow him a better chance to limit the walks, which what he’s shown this year in Triple-A.. The fastball was obviously very good as it touched 98 mph in bursts and he was able to sit in the mid-90s the entire game. Not only does he have a great fastball but has two very good secondary pitches. The changeup was the better pitch last night. He threw it with the same arm action as the fastball, which makes it  hard for hitters to pick up. The slider (most refer to it as a curveball) had really hard spin and good downward tilt. What impressed me the most was he threw any of those pitches irregardless of the count and situation. Not only did he throw any pitch he threw them for strikes, he threw them for quality strikes. It’s possible he may get sent back down to Triple-A because Dillon Gee’s DL stay should only require the minimum 15 days. However, anyone who saw Syndergaard pitch knows he’s easily the superior pitcher and gives the Mets the best chance to win. Since the Mets have a lot of injuries in the bullpen I bet when Gee comes off the DL, he’ll go in the bullpen and Syndergaard stays in the rotation.

I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.

I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.

My Strategy

To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.

With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.

Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.

Last Note

This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.

My 50/50 Lineup

• P: Stephen Strasburg (WSH)  — $9,200
  
• P: Jake Arrieta (CHC) — $8,600
  
• C:  Derek Norris (SD) — $3,400
  
• 1B:  Joey Votto (CIN) — $4,500
  
• 2B:  Alex Guerrero (LAD)  — $2,800
  
• 3B:  Luis Valbuena (HOU) — $3,900
  
• SS: Hidden
  
• OF: Gregory Polanco (PIT) — $4,300
• OF: Hidden
  
• OF: Hidden

I don’t know how someone can not use Strephen Strasburg and Jake Arrieta tonight. For some reason the Diamondbacks are not playing A.J. Pollock every day, but for DFS purposes that’s great news for Strasburg. Strasburg was dealing with a minor shoulder issue and only pitched three innings in his last outing so he is not without risk, but the Diamondbacks lineup is Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Trumbo and fringe Major Leaguers. Arrieta has been unlucky and he faces an average Mets offense.

Sean O’Sullivan of the Phillies isn’t very good, but lefties are the ones who do the majority of the damage against, which is why I went with Gregory Polanco. Derek Norris mashes lefties and bats second in the lineup; he’s the best play for me especially at that price point. Mike Foltynewicz will ultimately be a reliever because he’ cannot get lefties out consistently. Votto has a great chance to go deep or at least hit two doubles. Alex Guerrero makes too much hard contact to not use him today especially at the price point.

Lastly, I left $700 on the table. I wanted to go with higher priced options in my OF, but I’m trusting my evaluations. Also, this is the first time I’m leaving so much money on the table and I want to see how my lineup performs.