Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Choosing pitchers in DFS can be a very tricky proposition because more times than not you’re going to win or lose based on how they perform. I play at DraftKings, which requires two starting pitchers; FanDuel only requires one starting pitcher. Since I play at DraftKings I’m going to focus the rest of the article on that format.

There are a lot of strategies on how to select pitchers. Some recommend choosing the hitters first, then the pitchers. That’s a bad idea. Predicting future baseball results can be a very futile, but predicting the performance of a starting pitcher is more accurate than hitters. Therefore, I choose the two pitchers I want to use for that day.

The pitchers I choose vary depending on the type of format I’m playing. Specifically, 50/50 (double ups) and GPP (guaranteed prize pools). In general when I’m recommending a pitcher for GPP it’s because they have upside to have a big day at a very low cost. What makes a pitcher a GPP recommendation and not a 50/50 recommendation is the GPP pitcher has a greater chance of not performing well. In 50/50 contests if one of your pitcher blows up (i.e. has an in-game ERA of over 4.50 and a WHIP over 1.3) you’re not likely going to win. When I’m choosing pitchers for 50/50 I want pitchers who have a great chance of providing a quality start with a strikeout per inning.

Below you will find analysis on what type of format I would use a particular pitcher (if at all) for Monday, May 25, 2015. Also, I omitted some pitchers on purpose because there is no chance I would be using them in any format. Lastly, I’m not ranking the players because I want you, the reader to make him his/her own mind ;0)

Nate Eovaldi: Pass

The Royals have a fairly left-handed lineup and Eovaldi still has not figured out lefties. This year lefties have a .988 OPS and for his career before 2015 .770 (compared to only .678 against righties).

Bartolo Colon: GPP

Colon has been brutal his last three starts, allowing 17 earned runs 15.1 innings. However, he’s facing the Phillies at home. The Phillies do not have a good lineup or a good team. They currently have the lowest wOBA against right-handed pitching for the season. The velocity of the fastball has been relatively stable, which is why I think he could have a bounce back start.

Dallas Keuchel: 50/50, GPP

Keuchel is a good pitcher. He fields his position well, holds runners well and produces a lot of ground balls. In fact he had the highest ground ball rate last season and leads all qualified starters this season. The Astros are among the leaders in baseball in the number of times they utilize the defensive shift, which is great for him. He’s going to be a massive regression candidate as the season progresses, but I expect him to have continued success against the Orioles who are 24^th in the majors in wOBA in the past month.

Wei-Yin Chen: GPP

Since Chen pitches a hitter friendly ballpark you would think he has a substantial difference in his home-road splits, but his career numbers are almost identical at home and on the road. The Astros strikeout the most of any team in baseball so you may be able to get 6-7 innings with 8-plust strikeouts.

Kyle Lohse: GPP

If you remove the first start of the year he has a 4.47 ERA and 1.113 WHIP so he’s pitched much better than his ERA and WHIP would indicate. For the year, the Giants surprisingly have the fourth best wOBA against right handed pitching.

Tim Lincecum: GPP

In Lincecum’s last four starts he has a 1.05 ERA and a 0.974 WHIP, but I’m still not buying. The simple reason why is during that stretch he’s walking 10.9 percent of batters. I avoid high walk pitchers for yearlong fantasy as well as DFS, but he’s facing an average Brewers team and may be worth a chance.

Joe Kelly: GPP

The Twins mash lefties, but they cannot hit righties; they’re 27^th in the majors in wOBA against righties for the season. Despite Kelly’s poor ERA and WHIP he has made an improvement in the strikeout rate; going from 15.9 percent last year to 21.2 percent this year.

Tanner Roark: GPP

The reason why he’s only a GPP is because the most pitches he’s thrown this season is 50 pitches so I doubt the Nationals will allow him to come close to 100 pitches. If I knew for a fact he could throw 100 or more I would say he’s a 50/50 play too.

Jesse Hahn: GPP

Hahn has not looked like the pitcher he was last year, but he hasn’t pitched as poorly as his ERA would indicate. He’s facing the Tigers who have the third highest wOBA against righties so he is definitely a high risk, high reward player.

Carlos Martinez: GPP

Martinez could be a 50/50 play, but I want to see what the Diamondbacks lineup looks like first. The reason why I say that is because for some reason they are platooning A.J. Pollock, their second best hitter, with two other outfielders. Also, he still has major problems getting lefties out so if the lineup is fairly left handed I wouldn’t use him in a 50/50.

Chase Anderson: GPP

I love fastball-changeup pitchers. Anderson has pitched extremely well for the season, but he’s going to regress to a 3.30ish ERA when the season concludes. The reason why is he doesn’t have overpowering stuff and he pitches in one of the worst ballpark for pitchers. In the past month the Cardinals have the fifth highest wOBA against righties.

Drew Hutchison: GPP

I wrote a “scouting” report on Hutchison here.

Jake Odorizzi: 50/50, GPP

Odorizzi has totally revamped his approach to pitching. He’s walking far less batters, generating more ground balls and is pitching deeper into games. All of that is great, but this is coming at the expense of the strikeout rate, which is not good for fantasy. Despite that, he’s going to be on my 50/50 lineup.

Roenis Elias: GPP

Elias pitched great in his last start against the Orioles, but the Rays are sixth in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Last year walks plagued Elias, but this year the walk rate is down two and a half percentage points (from 9.2 percent to 6.8 percent).

Brett Anderson: GPP

The Braves are 26^th in the majors in wOBA against lefties for the year and Anderson has struck out 15 batters in the past two starts (11.2 innings). Eventually the Dodgers are going to hit so the odds of him winning are higher than normal.

Tyson Ross: GPP

Most fantasy players will have Ross as a 50/50 player, but he’s walking batters at an enormous rate (13.5 percent), which is too high for me. Since he’s one of the better pitchers on Monday he’s going to be priced too high.

Jered Weaver: GPP

In his last three starts Weaver has a 1.54 ERA and 0.729 WHIP. Maybe he has found something and made the appropriate changes? Or maybe he’s benefitted from a .179 BABIP?

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Sunday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

Johnny Cueto is going to miss today’s (Sunday, May 24) start due to elbow soreness. According to Mark Sheldon he’s only going to miss one start and he could have pitched today, but just not at 100 percent. Any time you hear elbow soreness and pitcher in the same sentence it’s never a good thing. The injury and the potential he misses more than one start is the reason why I ranked him lower than he should be.

With Doug Fister on the DL Tanner Roark, not A.J. Cole is going to get Fister’s spot in the rotation. Roark has not thrown more than 50 pitches this year so I have to assume he’ll only throw 80-90 pitches in his first start. If Fister misses a substantial amount of time and Roark were to say in the rotation the rest of the year then he’s a top 50 starting pitcher because of the win potential and underlying stats.

I wrote about Carlos Rodon and Drew Hutchison at Baseball Professor. Hutchison is a two-start pitcher this week and has two slightly above average matchups (home to the White Sox and at the Twins). If he was only starting at the Twins he would be ranked 10-15 spots higher because of the pitcher friendly ballpark.

Mike Bolsinger’s ERA and WHIP are very deceiving, but that does not mean you should automatically overlook what he’s done so far. He’s a ground ball pitcher who does not throw hard so his margin for error is smaller, but he’s still pitching on one of the top five best teams in baseball and is very valuable in quality starts leagues. The Cardinals matchup is not as it seems. In the month of May they are only 17th in the majors in wOBA against righties.

The Padres offense has been very hit or miss this year, which is very similar to the offense last year. In the past month they are last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching, which appears to bode well for Francisco Liriano’s start in San Diego. However, since their best hitters are all right-handed hitters I would think twice before I put Liriano in my lineup.

I love how the Orioles are giving Mike Wright another start. I saw his Major League debut and I was impressed and surprised. The scouting reports said his fastball was 92-94 mph, but his first pitch was 98 mph. Not only did he reach that velocity once, he hit 96-plus multiple times throughout the game. He’s more a ground baller because he throws a two-seamer that sits 91-94 and only throws the hard four-seam fastball when he needs it. What impressed the most about his start was he threw any of his pitches regardless of the count, which is a sign he has confidence in his command. At this point he’s better than Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris and (sadly) Chris Tillman and I hope he gets a long look in the rotation. His OFP (overall future potential) is good number three real life starter. Sadly, his future depends on how well Wright pitches again against the White Sox. If he struggles, he will most likely get sent back to Triple-A.

I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.

I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.

My Strategy

To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.

With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.

Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.

Last Note

This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.

My 50/50 Lineup

• P: Michael Wacha (STL) — $8,300
  
• P: Johnny Cueto (CIN) — $9,900
  
• C: Brayan Pena (CIN) — $2,700
  
• 1B: James Loney (TB) — $3,600
  
• 2B: Danny Valencia (TOR) — $3,000
  
• 3B: Josh Donaldson (TOR) — $4,700
  
• SS: Hidden
  
• OF: Andrew McCutchen (PIT) —$4,800
  
• OF: Hidden
  
• OF: Hidden

There were certainly a lot of pitching matchups to choose from, but I went with Johnny Cueto and Michael Wacha because they were the safest matchups. Cueto is one of the 3-5 best starting pitchers in the majors and he’s playing in a great pitcher’s park. If I lose because one of the best pitchers doesn’t do well I can live with that. I’m still not buying the Royals offense; they’ve gotten lucky with the BABIP and the well-hit average is low. The Mets are struggling to score runs and Wacha has transformed himself into a ground baller with the increased usage of the cutter. The strikeouts may not be there, but I can see seven innings of 0-1 earned runs.

The biggest reason why I’m using Brayan Pena is he’s batting second and in front of Joey Votto (and I think by now the price point is implied). I almost went with Kyle Blanks, but I couldn’t avoid an opportunity to use James Loney against Mike Foltynewicz who cannot get lefties out.  I went with the Josh Donaldson and Danny Valencia because they both mash lefties and I’m not totally buying Hector Santiago, especially in that ballpark. For the past month Andrew McCutchen’s well-hit average is on par with the previous two years. He’s back and his price point is “low” considering he’s facing Ricky Nolasco.