Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Yesterday I wrote about hitters that should improve in the second half so it only makes sense to write about hitters that will regress. If you have any questions you can reach me on Twitter.

Michael Brantley – I’m cheating a little bit here because I don’t believe he’s going to decline or improve and here’s why. To begin the season Brantley essentially began the year on the DL (he only played two the first two weeks of the season) with back spasms. Since becoming an everyday player this is his lowest hard hit rate and there are no signs that indicate it’s going to improve the rest of the year. He’s going to hit third the rest of the year and he is still going to be a five category player, but I only see 5-7 home runs.

Xander Bogaerts – at the time of his call-up the scouting reports suggested he would hit for a lot of power, but that hasn’t manifested yet. His hard hit rate ranks in the bottom 25% among qualified hitters. This indicates his batting average has been a result of a high BABIP. The high BABIP is mostly due to playing at home (table below).

At first I wanted to recommend streaming him when he’s at home, but since the shortstop position is so inept that even when the batting average regresses he’ll still be better than anything you’ll find on the waiver wire. My recommendation would be to trade for a shortstop that’s undervalued. Every year Erick Aybar is always underrated but always finish in the top ten among shortstops. He doesn’t dominate one category. Instead, he provides slightly above average production in every category.

Nick Hundley – other than Stephen Vogt, Hundley has been the biggest surprise at the catcher position; providing moderate production in every category. The most valuable statistic he’s provided this season has been the .309 batting average. His hard hit rate is 16.2%, which is below average and most importantly, is the lowest of his career. There are 91 players (with 150 plate appearances) with a hard hit rate that low or lower and their cumulative batting average is .243.

He plays half of his games in Coors which helps tremendously; he has a slash line of .349/.376/.556. On the road his slash line is .264/.319/.364. At home he has a .382 BABIP, which is 30 points higher than the team as a whole at home so regression is going to occur at home. I think he’s going to continue to hit at home, but at the same clip. If you can afford the roster spot you should stream him when he’s only at home.

Nelson Cruz – for the first two months of the season last year Cruz had a .315/.383/.675 slash line with 20 home runs. From June on he had a .249/.308/.4516 slash line and 20 home runs. Last year he benefitted from a great first two months and regressed. The same thing is happening this year.

For the first two months this season he put up a .335/.392/.660 slash line with 18 home runs. Since that point .269/.347/.381 slash line and only three home runs. The primary driver of the .308 batting average is being driven against left handed pitching: .388 batting average with a .422 BABIP. The batting average is going to regress and I don’t see more than 10-12 home runs the rest of the year.

Stephen Vogt – this recommendation is purely based on what the Athletics do at the trade deadline. The majority of at-bats Vogt gets are between the 2-4 position, which is extremely rare for catchers. If he gets traded he’ll likely be playing for a contender and likely bat further down the lineup, lowering his RBI and run scoring opportunities.

Also, he benefitted from a great April: .348/.429/.606 slash line with a .358 BABIP. Since that point he’s a .268/.357/.465 player (.299 BABIP). Vogt will likely hit 9-13 home runs the rest of the year, but the batting average will be in the .260-.270 range.

Mike Moustakas – like Stephen Vogt, Moustakas benefitted greatly from a great first month of the season: .356/.420/.522 slash line with a .377 BABIP. Since the first moth of the season he’s hitting .271/.325/.386 with a .290 BABIP, only four home runs and no stolen bases. If you had him from day one you’re extremely happy, but it’s time to move on.

Billy Burns – among players with at least 250 plate appearances, Burns has the lowest hard hit rate. He currently has a .348 BABIP. He’s also very fast, so the BABIP isn’t as high as it looks. Combine all three data points he will most likely regress in the second half. He’ll probably be a .270/.315/.350 hitter, which still has value. However, if he’s hitting at the clip how long will he be able to bat leadoff? The A’s do not have prototypical leadoff hitter so unless he falls off dramatically he should stay at the leadoff spot. However, if he has a bad 2-3 weeks after the break, I wouldn’t be surprised he gets the Billy Hamilton treatment and he’s batting ninth.

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played. The rankings are slanted toward a GPP, but the write-ups provide (hopefully) the information necessary to fill out a double-up lineup.

With a short slate and not very many starting pitcher options I’m going to keep this somewhat brief. I like to play in GPPs and with a slate like Monday’s it’s important to be contrarian. Everyone is going to use Jimmy Nelson today for two reasons: 1) the Phillies matchup and 2) the low salary $6,600. I wrote about Nelson a few days ago and how his statistics are very contradictory. Also, a lot of “experts” are recommending him as the best option so if you want to make real money you cannot use Nelson. Maybe I’m over thinking it and not as many people will use him. If was I playing in a cash game I would use Nelson because even if he blows up it won’t hurt your team because everyone’s team will be effected.

In regards to CJ Wilson, he costs too much, the matchup is neutral and doesn’t have the upside of other pitchers. Also, since he is the most expensive he will likely be used a lot of fantasy owners

Mike Bolsinger gets the Diamondbacks in Arizona. He definitely has strikeout upside, but he walks a lot of batters so runners will be on-base a lot and most importantly, it will not allow him to pitch deep into the game. Also, the Dodgers don’t allow him to throw more than 90 pitches. He’s a pass for me.

Last week I did a blind resume with Clay Buchholz and I said he was a must start against the Orioles and he proceeded to pitch a great game. The reason why I’m luke warm about using him is his price is a little high considering the matchup. The Blue Jays, at home, have the second best wOBA and the best hard hit rate in the majors. Buchholz’s hard hit rate 15.9 percent is the 21st best in the majors among qualified starting pitchers so it’s possible he could have a great game. He’s one of the three pitchers I’m considering, but I’m leaning towards two others (below).  *Please read to the end of the piece because I haven’t decided who my two pitchers will be yet.

Originally I was planning on using Nathan Karns for two reasons. The first is Vegas had the Indians-Rays game as the lowest over/under today. The second, in his last ten starts he has a 22 percent strikeout rate and 7.6 percent walk rate (with a 2.54 ERA and 1.218 WHIP). He’s an above average ground ball pitcher, but he allows a lot hard contact (19.7 percent). He’s been a much better pitcher on the road than at home so he has not benefited from the ballpark (yet). Instead, he’s probably benefited from a really good defense and luck. If you look at his past ten starts he’s pitched very well; his two worst starts came, oddly, against the Angels in a seven day span.

Cody Anderson will probably be overlooked because he’s only had one start in the majors and was not a highly touted prospect. I love his price point, the matchup and skill set. He doesn’t have huge upside, but at his price point ($5,700) he doesn’t need to. If he scores 15-17 points he’s still providing a slightly positive ROI. I believe the odds of him doing so are just as high as other higher priced pitchers.

Conclusion

Cody Anderson will be my number one pitcher and I still have not decided on Nathan Karns or Clay Buchholz. I’m leaning towards Karns because with so many good hitting matchups I may want to load up on premium hitters. If Buchholz was $500 cheaper it would be a no brainer to use him. I’ll know who my second starting pitcher after my afternoon run. Check out my Twitter for who I choose.

Before I talk about what I saw in Steven Matz’s Major League debut it has become extremely apparent how foolish and comical it has been to keep Matz and Noah Syndergaard in the minors in favor to keep Dillon Gee and Jonathan Niese in the rotation. If the Mets’ primary objective was winning they should’ve put Gee in the minors and Niese in the bullpen after the first month of the season. If I’m a Mets fan I’m extremely mad at the front office for allowing their loyalties to their veterans cloud their judgement (it’s also very possible the front office has no idea what they are doing in regards to the Major League roster and they’re making judgements at the hip).

Clearly I liked what I saw from Matz, but the biggest problem is the hype train is going to get out of hand because the focus is going to be what he did at the plate rather than how he pitched.

To begin the game he was clearly pressing and looked nervous. He threw three straight balls to Brandon Phillips, the leadoff hitter, then when he threw a strike right down the middle (a fastball) he tattooed for a home run. After the first inning he regained his composure. The fastball looked good; the velocity was routinely in the 93-96 mph range and he was able to sustain the velocity at the end of the game. What was most impressive about the fastball was he threw consistently inside to righties. He has two secondary pitches: curveball and changeup. Both can miss bats on both sides of the plate, but they’re average to above average offerings. At least 6-8 times the Reds real hitters (Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier) all took awkward swings against the secondary pitches and Matz made them look foolish.

His scouting report suggests he has really good command, but he didn’t show it for most of the day on Sunday. In the middle of the game he was only throwing strikes 55 percent of the time but as the game wore on he pounded the strike zone (and probably got more comfortable).

Last year he only threw 140 innings and I cannot see the Mets allowing him to throw more than 170-180 this year, but as I said earlier who knows what the Mets are thinking and what they’re going to do. My best guess is he throws 175 innings. After his start on Sunday he’s thrown 98 innings so he only has 77 innings left, which is about 10-14 starts left. Like any young pitcher he is going to be highly variable from start to start, but he’s going to have more good outings than bad ones.

If you’re in a league with FAAB I wouldn’t blow all my money to get him because of the inconsistency, but since he pitches in the NL East he’s going to have a lot of favorable matchups. Based on how well Matz pitched I can’t see the Mets sending him back to the minors any time soon. He should be owned in all formats because in the shallowest of leagues he’s going to be a very good streaming option very often.