Game(s) I Love:

Cleveland Browns. RG3 is not playing tomorrow; instead Kirk Cousins is going to start; the Browns have an up and coming defense; Brandon Weeden has showed promise the past three weeks; the Redskins defense is bad and their receiving options (with exception to Pierre Garcon) are average at best; the Browns smash the Redskins tomorrow.

The line opened at -3 so the initial bets are on the Bengals, but now the line is -4.5. I expect the Bengals to win, but the value bet was at -3. Now you have to pay a premium. So why do I like the Bengals?

I wasn’t impressed with Nick Foles‘ performance last week. The box score looked really good, but as always it’s important to adjust those numbers against the competition. Tampa Bay has the worst pass defense in the NFL and the Eagles completely abandoned the run; 76% of the offensive pass plays were passes.

What no one is talking about how well the Bengals defense, especially the run defense, has been playing the past 4 out of 5 weeks. Andy Dalton has played better than I expected. Couple that with AJ Green and one of the worst 5 defenses in the league, I expect a big day for the Bengals offense.