Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

I’m the last to the party to talk about this, but it’s ok, these notes are more for me than anything else. Kyle Lohse signed a three-year deal with the Brewers and instantly becomes their number two starter. It’s easy to say his .262 BABIP and 77% LOB% will regress. It could be true they both regress, but he’s had a BABIP lower than .287 three out of the past four seasons. Also, for three years in a row his strikeout and walk percentages have gone in the right direction. Lohse is a legit number two starter, but he’ll be pitching his home games in the bam box in Milwaukee. In a 12-team mixed league he’s a number three starter.

David Freese will begin the year on the DL with a bad back.

Shawn Marcum is experiencing neck discomfort and therefore will not be ready for Opening Day. If you’re in any league besides a NL-only league and you own Marcum, you deserve to lose.

Jacob Turner will begin the year in Triple-A. In 13 innings (in Spring Training) he’s given up 14 ERs, 9 walks and only 5 strikeouts.

Scott Kazmir, Shelby Miller and Erik Bedard have all been named the 5th starters for their respective clubs (Indians, Cardinals and Astros respectively). Of the three, I have Miller the highest; 34th starting pitcher overall. I know the adage of how young pitchers never do well in their inaugural seasons, but after what I’ve seen I’m convinced he’ll miss a ton of bats. Bedard and Kazmir are both AL-only plays. Bedard is ticking time bomb and could get hurt at any moment so enjoy his mediocre performance.

Greg Holland’s fastball velocity is down 2 mph from last year; 94.5 mph in Spring Training. This news isn’t exciting and I dropped him from 11th to 23rd in my Closer Rankings. I believe Aaron Crow is the next in line for saves if Holland falters, but Kelvin Herra is the dark horse for saves.

Shin-Soo Choo is experiencing back spasms, but is expected to be ready for Opening Day. During the spring he’s missed five games due to back spasms and this is something to keep a close eye on. This news scares me because back spasms can reoccur at any moment and will never go away.

With the signing of Jon Garland, Drew Pomeranz was optioned to Triple-A. I literally have no idea what the Rockies are doing anymore. It appears as if they have no plan to win any time soon. Pomeranz may not be that good, but Jon Garland, really? I’m glad I’m not a Rockies fan.

Cody Ross will not be ready for Opening Day because of the strained left calf. Once a position of strength, the Diamondbacks are now short of outfielders with Adam Eaton out for two months too. A.J. Pollock, who profiles as a 4th outfielder, is likely to be the starting right fielder. If Pollock played the entire year he could be a 10/10 player with a .265 batting average.

Jemile Weeks was optioned to Triple-A. It’s still a mystery who becomes the Athletics second baseman. Eric Sogard, Scott Sizemore, Adam Rosales and Hiroyuki Nakajima are all candidates. The front runner appears to be Sizemore, but everything I’ve read suggests he’s been awful. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nakajima is at second and Jed Lowrie is at shortstop.

Brett Lawrie will start the year on the DL. However, the Jays expect he’ll miss no more than two weeks.

David Freese will have an MRI on his back. It’s possible he will not be ready for Opening Day.

Oscar Taveras is still with the big league club. Originally, he was supposed to be optioned to Triple-A, but Carlos Beltran is still being bothered by a bad toe. It’s highly unlikely Taveras starts the year in the Majors if Beltran will only be out for a couple of weeks. What’s more likely is Allen Craig will be in right field and Matt Adams at first base if Beltran isn’t ready for Opening Day.

Pablo Sandoval’s right elbow showed “no new unexpected findings.” It looks as though his availability for Opening Day in jeopardy. However, since his injury could be backdated, he could only miss the first four games of the year as long as he doesn’t play in any games in Spring Training.

Vernon Wells was traded to the Yankees today. Is Wells good? No, but he could be a cheap power source. Last year he had 11 home runs in 262 plate appearances and in 2011 he had 25 home runs in 529 plate appearances.

David Murphy took batting practice yesterday and reported no discomfort. David Wright also participated in batting practice on Sunday, the first game action since March 14. Both Wright’s and Murphy’s availability for Opening Day is up in the air, but I have a gut feeling they’ll both play on Opening Day.

Tyler Greene of the Houston Astros was released today. Since he’s out of options the Astros will have a few days in order to trade him. In conjunction with this action, the Astros signed Ronny Cedeno, who is now expected to be the starting shortstop.

Derek Jeter is likely to start the year on the DL. The length of time time he’ll miss is still up in the air, but since the DL designation was backdated to March 22, the earliest he could be back is April 6. Eduardo Nunez is projected to be the starting shortstop. He’s below average defensively, but that doesn’t matter for fantasy. His primary asset is speed; if he plays a few weeks he could easily slot in your MI position for the first few weeks.

Jon Garland was released by the Mariners yesterday; as of now, Garland is likely heading to the Rockies. Garland has no fantasy value to speak of, but what this means is Erasmo Ramirez, from my standpoint, is all but assured to have a spot in the pitching rotation. Jeremy Bondermon, Blake Beavan and Brandon Maurer. Of the three, Maurer is the only pitcher that could be owned in a 12-team mixed league because he has the ability to miss bats with an above average slider with an average changeup and curveball. Prior to 2012, Maurer was plagued by injuries; elbow problems in 2010 and shoulder problems in 2011. Last year he was completely healthy was able to throw the most innings he’s thrown in his career (138).

Aaron Hicks will be the Twins starting center fielder on Opening Day. Hicks is still raw and probably isn’t ready for the Majors, but if he plays a full year he’ll hit .240 with 10 home runs and 15+ stolen bases. I bet Hicks will start to be overrated by fantasy owners because we tend to overvalue our dreams of an unknown.

Early reports out of Cleveland is Chris Perez should be ready for Opening Day.