Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

This is my first time doing this and I’m still trying to figure out the best way to compose these rankings so bear with me as I try to figure this out. My goal is to try to give you enough information to help set your starting pitcher lineups. I breakdown all the pitchers into various categories: Must Starts, Spot Starts, Sits and Snake Eyes. Snake Eyes are rolls of the dice; these pitchers can help you immensely or burn your team to the ground.

Overall Pitcher Notes:
Jose Fernandez, 20, of the Marlins will surprisingly begin the year in the Majors. This probably due to a blend of skill level, maturity and injuries to Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez beginning the year on the DL. Fernandez was rated the 5th best prospect by Baseball America and 6th by Baseball Prospectus. The call up is surprising because he has yet to pitch above High-A. If you’re in a dynasty league you want to roster him immediately. In one year leagues, you have to temper expectations; he pitches for one of the worst teams in baseball and he’ll have growing pains as he adjusts to Major League hitters. His first start is scheduled for April 7 against the Mets (at New York).

Must Starts
Jake Peavy (CWS) – Wed KC
Anibal Sanchez (DET) – Wed @MIN
Max Scherzer (DET) – Th @MIN
Doug Fister (DET) – Fri NYY
Jeremy Hellickson (TB) – Wed BAL
Matt Moore (TB) – Fri CLE
Brandon Morrow (TOR) – Wed CLE
Mat Latos (CIN) – Wed LAA
Matt Harvey (NYM) – Wed SD
Cliff Lee (PHI) – Th @ATL
Shelby Miller (STL) – Sat @SF
Madison Bumgarner (SF) – Tue @LAD
Gio Gonzalez (WSH) – Wed MIA
Jason Hammel (BAL) – Sun MIN, Tue @TB
Chris Sale (CWS) – Sun SEA, Mon KC
Justin Verlander (DET) – Sun NYY, Mon @MIN
James Shields (KC) – Sun @PHI, Mon @CWS
Jered Weaver (LAA) – Sun @TEX, Mon @CIN
CC Sabathia (NYY) – Sun @DET, Mon BOS
Brett Anderson (OAK) – Mon SEA, Sat @HOU
Jarrod Parker (OAK) – Tue SEA, Sun @HOU
Felix Hernandez (SEA) – Mon @OAK, Sat @CWS
Matt Harrison (TEX) – Mon @HOU, Sat LAA
Yu Darvish (TEX) – Tue @HOU, Sun LAA
R.A. Dickey (TOR) – Sun BOS, Tue CLE
Ian Kennedy (ARI) – Sun @MIL, Mon STL
Tim Hudson (ATL) – Sun CHC, Mon PHI
Jeff Samardzija (CHC) – Sun @ATL, Mon @PIT
Johnny Cueto (CIN) – Sun WSH, Mon LAA
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Mon SF, Sat PIT
Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – Sun ARI, Mon COL
Cole Hamels (PHI) – Sun KC, Mon @ATL
A.J. Burnett (PIT) – Sat @LAD, Mon CHC
Adam Wainwright (STL) – Sun @SF, Mon @ARI
Matt Cain (SF) – Sun STL, Mon @LAD
Stephen Strasburg (WSH) – Sun @CIN, Mon MIA

Spot Starts
Chris Tilllman (BAL) – Sat MIN
Gavin Floyd (CWS) – Th KC
C.J. Wilson (LAA) – Wed @CIN
Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) – Wed BOS
Brandon Maurer (SEA) – Th @OAK
Alex Cobb (TB) – Sat CLE
Alexi Ogando (TEX) – Wed @HOU
Derek Holland (TEX) – Fri LAA
Josh Johnson (TOR) – Fri BOS
Trevor Cahill (ARI) – Tue STL
Brandon McCarthy (ARI) – Wed STL
Wade Miley (ARI) – Fri @MIL
Paul Maholm (ATL) – Wed PHI
Kris Medlen (ATL) – Th PHI
Mike Minor (ATL) – Fri CHC
Edwin Jackson (CHC) – Wed @PIT
Homer Bailey (CIN) – Fri WSH
Josh Beckett (LAD) – Wed SF
Marco Estrada (MIL) – Tue COL
Wily Peralta (MIL) – Wed COL
Kyle Lohse (MIL) – Sat ARI
James McDonald (PIT) – Th CHC
Lance Lynn (STL) – Wed @ARI
Ryan Vogelsong (SF) – Sat STL
Ross Detwiler (WSH) – Sat @CIN
Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) – Tue @OAK, Sun @CWS
Jon Niese (NYM) – Sat MIA, Mon SD

Notes:
On the surface Ross Detwiler has a bad matchup, but he’s a groundball pitcher so the effects of Great American Ball Park will be minimized. Chris Tilllman is currently on the DL, but is expected to start on Saturday. I have my doubts how much he will able to repeat 2012, but he has a great matchup against the Twins. Wily Peralta has a great combination; he can miss a ton of bats and he generates a lot of ground balls. However, his command can be very loose, making him prone to blowup starts. If he wasn’t pitching against the Rockies I would’ve put him in the Snake Eyes category. Similar to Peralta, Brandon Maurer is here because of his ability to miss bats and the team he’s facing. The A’s strikeout a lot and Mauer could provide 7 or more.

Snake Eyes
Wei-Yin Chen (BAL) – Wed @TB
Jake Arrieta (BAL) – Fri MIN
Clay Buchholz (BOS) – Wed @NYY
Ryan Dempster (BOS) – Th @NYY
Felix Doubront (BOS) – Fri @TOR
John Lackey (BOS) – Sat @TOR
Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE) – Wed @TOR
Brett Myers (CLE) – Th @TOR
Scott Kazmir (CLE) – Sat @TB
Rick Porcello (DET) – Sat NYY
Lucas Harrell (HOU) – Tue TEX
Brad Peacock (HOU) – Fri OAK
Erik Bedard (HOU) – Sat OAK
Jeremy Guthrie (KC) – Th @CWS
Wade Davis (KC) – Fri @PHI
Ivan Nova (NYY) – Fri @DET
Tommy Milone (OAK) – Wed SEA
A.J. Griffin (OAK) – Th SEA
Dan Straily (OAK) – Fri @HOU
Joe Saunders (SEA) – Wed @OAK
Julio Teheran (ATL) – Sat CHC
Juan Nicasio (COL) – Wed @MIL
Zack Greinke (LAD) – Fri PIT
Henderson Alvarez (MIA) – Fri @NYM
Shaun Marcum (NYM) – Sun MIA
Roy Halladay (PHI) – Wed @ATL
Wandy Rodriguez (PIT) – Wed CHC
Jonathan Sanchez (PIT) – Fri @LAD
Jake Westbrook (STL) – Fri @SF
Tim Lincecum (SF) – Wed @LAD
Dan Haren (WSH) – Fri @CIN
Jon Lester (BOS) – Sun @TOR, Mon @NYY
Justin Masterson (CLE) – Sun @TB, Tue @TOR
Bud Norris (HOU) – Sun OAK, Mon TEX
Vance Worley (MIN) – Sun @BAL, Mon DET
Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) – Tue SF,Jin Ryu (LAD)
Ricky Nolasco (MIA) – Sun @NYM, Mon @WSH
Edinson Volquez (SD) – Sun @COL, Mon @NYM
Jhoulys Chacin (COL) – Sun SD, Mon @MIL

Notes:
There were a couple of pitchers who were on the fringe of achieving the Spot Start designation: Ryan Dempster, Felix Doubront, Brad Peacock, Wade Davis and Dain Straily. Peacock may be the most unknown of the list, but he can miss bats with a mid-90s fastball and average secondary stuff. However, he’s extremely home run prone because his fastball is extremely straight. With a matchup against in the A’s I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes 6 innings and strikes out 8-9. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he goes four innings and gives up 4-5 runs.

Zack Greinke is on the list because I have no idea what to expect out of him. Odds are, if you own him, you’re starting him, but I would wait one week to see how his stuff looks. Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren have looked extremely bad in Spring Training. It’s worth waiting to see how they look before committing to them to your lineup; if you start any of these players you’re playing with fire.

Sits
Miguel Gonzalez (BAL) – Th @TB
Jose Quintana (CWS) – Fri SEA
Dylan Axelrod (CWS) – Sat SEA
Zach McAllister (CLE) – Fri @TB
Philip Humber (HOU) – Wed TEX
Ervin Santana (KC) – Wed @CWS
Luis Mendoza (KC) – Sat @PHI
Joe Blanton (LAA) – Th @CIN
Jason Vargas (LAA) – Fri @TEX
Tommy Hanson (LAA) – Sat @TEX
Kevin Correia (MIN) – Wed DET
Mike Pelfrey (MIN) – Th DET
Cole De Vries (MIN) – Fri @BAL
Liam Hendriks (MIN) – Sat @BAL
Andy Pettitte (NYY) – Th BOS
David Phelps (NYY) – Sat @DET
Blake Beavan (SEA) – Fri @CWS
Roberto Hernandez (TB) – Th BAL
Mark Buehrle (TOR) – Th CLE
J.A. Happ (TOR) – Sat BOS
Travis Wood (CHC) – Th @PIT
Scott Feldman (CHC) – Fri @ATL
Carlos Villanueva (CHC) – Sat @ATL
Bronson Arroyo (CIN) – Th LAA
Mike Leake (CIN) – Sat WSH
Jorge De La Rosa (COL) – Tue @MIL
Jeff Francis (COL) – Fri SD
Jon Garland (COL) – Sat SD
Wade LeBlanc (MIA) – Th @WSH
Kevin Slowey (MIA) – Sat @NYM
Chris Narveson (MIL) – Fri ARI
Dillon Gee (NYM) – Th SD
Jeremy Hefner (NYM) – Fri MIA
Kyle Kendrick (PHI) – Fri KC
John Lannan (PHI) – Sat KC
Jeff Locke (PIT) – Sun @LAD
Jaime Garcia (STL) – Tue @ARI
Clayton Richard (SD) – Wed @NYM
Eric Stults (SD) – Th @NYM
Jason Marquis (SD) – Fri @COL
Joseph Ross (SD) – Sat @COL
Barry Zito (SF) – Fri STL

Notes:
Andy Pettitte is the only pitcher I feel the least confident about because he looked so good last year, but he’s 40 years old and facing a Red Sox lineup that will mash left handed pitching. Johnny Gomes, Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Will Middlebrooks and David Ross all have great splits against left handed pitching.

Erik Bedard and Brad Peacock made the Opening Day rotation for the Astros. Even though Peacock’s fastball sits in the low to the mid 90s, it’s very straight, which makes him homer prone. He throws a fringe average changeup and curveball with a work in progress slider/cutter. I haven’t seen him pitch yet, but I put a $1 bid on him in my 15-team NFBC league because he could be a good streaming option when he pitches in Oakland, Anaheim and Seattle because it’s less likely those fly balls turn into home runs in those ballparks.

Logan Forsythe is out six weeks with plantar fasciitis in his foot. Jedd Gyorko will be the third baseman and Alexi Amarista will be the second baseman for the Padres.

Bruce Rondon was optioned to Triple-A and will serve as that teams closer. Phil Coke, Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque and Octavio Dotel are possible options for save opportunities. As of right now it’s anyone’s guess as to who gets the save opportunities. Right now I’m guessing it’s Alburquerque because he has the best stuff.

Miguel Olivo was released by the Reds and was signed by the Marlins. Now, I know what you’re thinking. Why is Olivo fantasy relevant? Since their lineup is so bad he could be hitting cleanup, which provides value in deep two catcher leagues.

Eric Hosmer has spent some time playing right field this spring in order to be available to play there during interleague games.

Chris Tillman has been put on the DL. The move is retroactive to March 22. When he’s ready to come off the DL, he will be the Orioles 5th starter.

Stephen Drew will begin the year on the DL. The move is retoactive to March 27.

Last night my 15-team NFBC draft was by far the longest draft I’ve ever been in; it literally took a little more than five hours to finish. I was so tired afterward I had to go on a 20 minute run to rejuvenate myself.

Anyway, onto the draft. If you read my post about NFBC strategy you would have saw I was planning on getting Bryce Harper with my first pick. Well that flew out the window with the 11^th pick as the owner took Harper three picks ahead of my pick. Overall I was happy with my team. The biggest hole on my team was my lack of speed on offense. According to my projections I’m expected to finish 11^th in stolen bases, which is lower than I want (duh). My thinking during the draft was it would be harder to find power than speed via the free agent wire. My 5^th outfielder is Carlos Quentin and if he gets hurt his replacement will be speed first player. Most projections I’ve seen show him only playing 50-65% of the year so if he gets hurt and I sign a steals only player I’ll basically have a 20/25 player.

Catchers: I didn’t have a plan on when to fill my two catcher slots, but in most of the mock drafts I’ve done I’ve always waited for catcher because three of my favorites (John Jaso, Welington Castillo and Jason Castro) are always available at the end of drafts. I have Castillo hitting 18+ home runs and Jaso has an opportunity to score 70+ runs if he hits atop the Athletics batting order. If Jed Lowrie gets hurt, Athletics Manager, Bob Melvin is smart enough to see Jaso’s .359 career OBP and put him atop the order.

Infield: Troy Tulowitzki was too good to pass up at 14 overall. Injuries are a concern, which is why I drafted Ben Zobrist as a backup in the event Tulowitzki does miss time. Zobrist may be considered a reach, but I couldn’t pass up his position flexibility and the production he provides. In a league this deep, position flexibility throughout my infield is extremely valuable. I got Jhonny Peralta in the 22^nd round which was a steal. With the addition of Victor Martinez to the Tigers lineup, Peralta is in-line to have more RBI opportunities. However, since I got Peralta so late in the draft he’s extremely expendable if I need a middle infielder with speed.

If you read my fantasy guide you’ll know I love Eric Hosmer and Ike Davis. I’ll admit I reached a little early for Hosmer, but I wanted him and I didn’t expect him to come back around to me. Billy Butler is one of the safest players in game and I wanted to have some security to minimize the injury risk of Tulowitzki. Chris Parmelee was a flier with my last pick; he has first base eligibility but is projected to be the everyday right fielder and is slotted to bat 6^th in the lineup. I believe Kyle Seager was a steal with the 164^th pick. He went after Mike Moustakas, Todd Frazier and Will Middlebrooks, all guys I have rated behind Seager. I wanted to draft an outfielder at that spot, but the value of Seager was too good to pass up.

Outfield: I’m not a Angel Pagan guy, but I had no choice but to take him 224^th overall. Hopefully Pagan and Norichika Aoki can exceed their 2012 stolen base totals. The biggest regret from the draft was taking Alfonso Soriano over Lorenzo Cain. If I did, I would be looking better in the steals department, but Soriano is batting cleanup and he’ll have a lot of RBI opportunities. Also, he could be playing for a contender after the trade deadline. Franklin Gutierrez is someone who unfairly has the injury prone label, but his injuries have been fluky in nature.

Pitchers: I’m extremely ecstatic that Brandon Maurer will begin the year in the Mariners starting rotation. Maurer can legitimately miss bats and will pitch in the AL West; that’s a great combination. When I drafted Ricky Romero I didn’t know he was optioned to the minor leagues, so you can only imagine my shock after the draft to see what happened. After sleeping on it, I’m seeing this as good thing; when he fixes his delivery he’ll be closer to the pitcher he was in 2011, which makes him valuable. I like Jeremy Hellickson and Lance Lynn; Lynn has lost a lot of weight and looks ready to handle a 200 inning workload. I was extremely cautious about making Jake Peavy my number two starter, but he’s been healthy for the past year and half and I believe it will continue. I picked up Chris Tillman and Ivan Nova for their strikeouts because at that point I didn’t have enough. Honestly, I still don’t think I have enough. My favorite pickup was Chris Archer because even though he’s beginning the year in the minors, he’s the 4^th best starting pitcher the Tampa Rays have. If Archer began the year in the Majors he would be a top 40 starting pitcher because can miss a ton of bats, pitches in Tampa Bay’s ballpark and the Rays defense. If Archer makes it up to the big leagues by April, he can make up a lot of ground in strikeouts.

Bullpen: I waited until the 18^th closer went off the board before grabbing Ernesto Frieri and Brandon League. I never liked grabbing closers early because the position is so volatile. With Jim Henderson and Aaron Crow, I wanted to grab the pitchers next in-line behind closers who could lose their quicker and/or have the greatest chance of imploding. Royals’ closer, Greg Holland, has had a 2 mph decrease in fastball velocity compared to last year. Also, Holland isn’t the healthiest pitcher around. John Axford isn’t very good; last year was not an aberration folks. Henderson has “closer stuff” with a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and with a knockout slider.