Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Shelby Miller used threw the curveball more yesterday than any other time this year; throwing it nearly 27 percent of the time. The fastball command still needs refinement, if he’s going to have an opportunity to maintain his performance the entire season. Speaking of which, the most professional innings he’s pitched is 150 innings (in 2012) so I have to believe the Cardinals will put him on an innings limit. With the Cardinals having playoff aspirations, I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes on the DL to keep him fresh for the playoff run and/or playoffs. Miller is a sell high candidate.

Other than the Johnny Cueto incident, Matt Garza pitched very well through the first three innings of the game. The slider had good bite to it. The fastball touched 95 mph in bursts and he located it on both sides of the plates. However, that all went away in fourth inning as he started missing up in the zone too often.

Julio Teheran worked around three walks and an error, allowing only one run in 6.2 innings. Teheran’s command was off and on, which lead to the three walks. However, in his past five starts (including last night) he only has five walks in 33.1 innings. The biggest thing I noticed from the game had nothing to do with Teheran, but the Braves bullpen. With Johnny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty out for the entire year, the Braves are going to have to count on 6-7 relievers in high leverage situations. Last night the Braves called upon Cory Gearrin to hold a one run lead in the eighth inning, but he blew the lead. I’m concerned how the Braves bullpen is going to cost Braves pitchers wins and ERA via inherited runs scoring.

I hope you all dig the new format of the rankings. Please note the data are season totals as of May 24, 2013.

Top Starters

Additional Information: Gio Gonzalez in his past four starts has a 1.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP with only eight walks in 27 innings. Three of starts in extremely pitcher friendly parks (San Diego, Pittsburgh and San Francisco), which aided those numbers, but I think he’s turning the corner. In ten career starts Clayton Kershaw has a 5.94 ERA. Kershaw has easily been the best pitcher in the majors and odds are, if you own him you’re stating him. Also, if Patrick Corbin can be successful, why not Kershaw?

Backend Starters

Additional Information: Which Braves starting pitcher has the highest WAR? Mike Minor. I’m not surprised by his success and his matchup against Toronto isn’t as bad as you think. The Blue Jays only rank 20^th in the majors in OBP against left handed pitchers. I’m extremely worried about Matt Cain pitching in St. Louis, but there’s no way I can bench him in favor of Ervin Santana or a Dan Straily.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: Jeremy Hellickson is my fantasy kryptonite and odds are I will pump him up all year no matter how many bad outings he has. Hellickson looked sharp in his last start and he now gets an opportunity to pitch the Marlins and the Indians. On the surface the Indians start looks extremely unfavorable, but I don’t believe the offense is as good as what we’ve seen the past couple of weeks. In Jon Lester’s last five games he has a 3.97 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and only a strikeout rate of 17 percent. I wasn’t a believer in Hyun-Jin Ryu in the preseason, last week and I don’t believe in him again this week. R.A. Dickey got lit up again today (May 25) and the velocity of the knuckleball is still down compared to last year. I’m officially worried. What I love about Bronson Arroyo is you know what you’re getting, which are starts that do not kill your team. Arroyo, often passed over for high “upside” pitchers, is a very underrated.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Brandon McCarthy has been nothing less of exceptional, only allowing one earned runs in his past three starts, but now faces the fourth best offense (in terms of OPS) in the majors. The only reason why Jerome Williams is rated so high is because he’s facing the Astros. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s pitching in long relief in a week. John Lackey has pitched very well in has past two starts. However, they’ve been against the Indians and the Twins. I’m not buying Lackey yet. Wandy Rodriguez has a 80 percent left-on-base rate and a .243 BABIP. The curtain will pulled up on Wandy sooner rather than later.

Avoid

Additional Information: Edwin Jackson has been complete crap aall year. The problem has been simple: command. With an extensive track record of being above average-good Jackson could provide two solid starts at any moment. Just when you thought Dan Haren was starting to figure it out, he goes and allows seven earned runs in San Diego of all places. Jordan Lyles in his past two starts has only allowed two earned runs and seven strikeouts in 11 innings.

Ike Davis had the golden sombrero last night (four strikeouts) and looked awful at the plate; it got so bad the Mets were cheering Davis when he made contact a curveball in the eighth inning. Before the eighth Davis swinged and missed at every curveball Kris Medlen threw in Davis’ first three at-bats. Seriously folks, you should take him out of your lineup.

Despite having a great matchup Tommy Milone got rocked by the Astros. The fantasy community has been touting him as a solid fantasy play because of his 20.6 percent strikeout rate and extremely low walk rate of 4.5 percent. I’m not buy a pitcher whose fastball sits 86-88 mph because can sustain that high of a strikeout rate.

The injury to Jim Henderson did not look. After he threw he 12 pitch and recorded his second out, he fell to the ground holding his right hamstring. If you’re looking for saves Francisco Rodriguez is the guy you want.

In his last four starts David Phelps has a 2.63 ERA, 1.02 WHIP with a 20.8 percent strikeout rate. I wrote about Phelps a week ago for Through the Fence Baseball if you’re interested in more detailed information on Phelps. He was forced to the leave the game after getting hit by a line drive, but it doesn’t appear that bad, but monitor closely.