Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

I rated Gio Gonzalez as top 7 pitcher in last weeks (for this week) starting pitcher rankings because the improved control he showed the past four starts. However, his control problems creept back up again against the Orioles. The fastball and changeup were consistently thrown out of the strike zone – 56 percent and 88 percent respectively. Every Gonzalez fantasy owner is never going to feel completely comfortable starting him because it appears his command issues are always going to be there. Ryan Zimmerman had another throwing error; every ball hit at him is going to be adventure. I bring this up because this will negatively effect every Nationals pitcher.

Sean Dolittle is one of the five relievers in the majors. In 70.1 innings he has 83 strikeouts and only 14 walks. If were a full time closer he would be easily in the top 3.

Dan Straily had another solid outing against the Giants as he threw any of his four pitches at any time in the count. He threw a lot of quality strikes and pitched to contact; most the of the contact was weak as he pitched inside to both sides of the plate, which induced a lot popups. That said, he’s very fly ball prone and benefits from the A’s ballpark. To begin his career Straily has been very homer pone and in his last two starts he’s started to throw more quality strikes.

I wasn’t overly impressed with Tyler Skaggs’ outing despite the very nice box score. The biggest thing I noticed was he threw the fastball and changeup up in the zone a lot (35 percent of the time). With his fastball sitting 89-91 I don’t know how effective he’ll be in the long term throwing the ball in that location. With a 50 percent line drive rate suggests there was a lot of hard contact, which indicates he got lucky. Despite allowing zero runs he pitched with runners in scoring position 4-5 innings of the six he threw. The curveball looked really good, generating a lot of swings and misses. My only question is how often will be able to throw it before it loses its effectiveness in a game? With a “meh” changeup and average fastball I don’t think he has the stuff to keep hitters off the curveball consistently.

Shelby Miller used threw the curveball more yesterday than any other time this year; throwing it nearly 27 percent of the time. The fastball command still needs refinement, if he’s going to have an opportunity to maintain his performance the entire season. Speaking of which, the most professional innings he’s pitched is 150 innings (in 2012) so I have to believe the Cardinals will put him on an innings limit. With the Cardinals having playoff aspirations, I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes on the DL to keep him fresh for the playoff run and/or playoffs. Miller is a sell high candidate.

Other than the Johnny Cueto incident, Matt Garza pitched very well through the first three innings of the game. The slider had good bite to it. The fastball touched 95 mph in bursts and he located it on both sides of the plates. However, that all went away in fourth inning as he started missing up in the zone too often.

Julio Teheran worked around three walks and an error, allowing only one run in 6.2 innings. Teheran’s command was off and on, which lead to the three walks. However, in his past five starts (including last night) he only has five walks in 33.1 innings. The biggest thing I noticed from the game had nothing to do with Teheran, but the Braves bullpen. With Johnny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty out for the entire year, the Braves are going to have to count on 6-7 relievers in high leverage situations. Last night the Braves called upon Cory Gearrin to hold a one run lead in the eighth inning, but he blew the lead. I’m concerned how the Braves bullpen is going to cost Braves pitchers wins and ERA via inherited runs scoring.

I hope you all dig the new format of the rankings. Please note the data are season totals as of May 24, 2013.

Top Starters

Additional Information: Gio Gonzalez in his past four starts has a 1.67 ERA, 0.93 WHIP with only eight walks in 27 innings. Three of starts in extremely pitcher friendly parks (San Diego, Pittsburgh and San Francisco), which aided those numbers, but I think he’s turning the corner. In ten career starts Clayton Kershaw has a 5.94 ERA. Kershaw has easily been the best pitcher in the majors and odds are, if you own him you’re stating him. Also, if Patrick Corbin can be successful, why not Kershaw?

Backend Starters

Additional Information: Which Braves starting pitcher has the highest WAR? Mike Minor. I’m not surprised by his success and his matchup against Toronto isn’t as bad as you think. The Blue Jays only rank 20^th in the majors in OBP against left handed pitchers. I’m extremely worried about Matt Cain pitching in St. Louis, but there’s no way I can bench him in favor of Ervin Santana or a Dan Straily.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: Jeremy Hellickson is my fantasy kryptonite and odds are I will pump him up all year no matter how many bad outings he has. Hellickson looked sharp in his last start and he now gets an opportunity to pitch the Marlins and the Indians. On the surface the Indians start looks extremely unfavorable, but I don’t believe the offense is as good as what we’ve seen the past couple of weeks. In Jon Lester’s last five games he has a 3.97 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and only a strikeout rate of 17 percent. I wasn’t a believer in Hyun-Jin Ryu in the preseason, last week and I don’t believe in him again this week. R.A. Dickey got lit up again today (May 25) and the velocity of the knuckleball is still down compared to last year. I’m officially worried. What I love about Bronson Arroyo is you know what you’re getting, which are starts that do not kill your team. Arroyo, often passed over for high “upside” pitchers, is a very underrated.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Brandon McCarthy has been nothing less of exceptional, only allowing one earned runs in his past three starts, but now faces the fourth best offense (in terms of OPS) in the majors. The only reason why Jerome Williams is rated so high is because he’s facing the Astros. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s pitching in long relief in a week. John Lackey has pitched very well in has past two starts. However, they’ve been against the Indians and the Twins. I’m not buying Lackey yet. Wandy Rodriguez has a 80 percent left-on-base rate and a .243 BABIP. The curtain will pulled up on Wandy sooner rather than later.

Avoid

Additional Information: Edwin Jackson has been complete crap aall year. The problem has been simple: command. With an extensive track record of being above average-good Jackson could provide two solid starts at any moment. Just when you thought Dan Haren was starting to figure it out, he goes and allows seven earned runs in San Diego of all places. Jordan Lyles in his past two starts has only allowed two earned runs and seven strikeouts in 11 innings.