Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Jered Weaver battled two elements yesterday: the weather (rain) and umpire Joe West. Despite the box score Weaver pitched extremely well through the first three innings, when the rain was light, throwing his fastball on the both sides of the plate and commanding his curveball and slider. The home run to Adam Jones was on a hanging changeup to Adam Jones, but after that the hits he allowed were all fluky in nature and one of the runs was aided by Josh Hamilton over running a ground ball. I have yet to mention Joe West’s inconsistent strike zone. There were at least four-five occasions where he called a ball when they were strikes. Even though his fastball sat 86-89 mph Weaver can still be an effective pitcher.

Of course I finally tout Julio Teheran in my starting pitcher rankings and he puts up a stinker. The first run came on a three base error by BJ Upton because he should have caught a ball that was hit at the warning track. The other runs, which came via the home run were both on hanging changeups. What stood out to me was the number of fly balls he allowed. Before the start he generated 44 percent ground balls and 36 percent fly balls, but the start in San Diego he allowed 55 percent fly balls. The fly balls looked more like it was part of the gameplan instead of errors on pitch location so I’m not overly worried. In general Teheran is a strike throwing machine, ranks tenth in the majors (among pitchers with at least five starts) in percentage of strikes thrown. He’s still a top 35-40 starting pitcher.

This is two starts in a row where Matt Moore has not looked good. Yesterday he wasn’t commanding any of pitches for the majority of the games. He did look good in extremely short bursts, but that was far and far between. The Rays commentators noted the Orioles hitters were very comfortable at the plate and they were covering pitches (on the outer half) they shouldn’t. His fastball velocity is down nearly two mph and the performance of his last two starts, makes me believe he’s hurt. If you remove yesterday’s start and look at his seven previous starts he has a 4.78 ERA. 1.63 WHIP with a strikeout rate of only 13.5 percent and walk rate of 12.8 percent. I ranked him 25th in my starting pitcher rankings, but after watching his last start I’ve benched him in all my leagues for David Phelps and Corey Kluber.

Edwin Jackson threw a lot of quality strikes, challenged hitters and looked like the same pitcher last year. The biggest thing I noticed was he didn’t pitch from the stretch when men were on base. With a FIP of 3.39 and xFIP of 3.59 and how he’s looked in his two previous starts you should go get him right now.

In the preseason I wasn’t a believer in Tyler Skaggs because the stuff was still a work in progress. Yesterday I saw him for the first time in about 4-5 starts and he still has to work on refining repertoire. He throws a beautiful curveball, but that’s not enough to get hitters out especially when his fastball sits 88-90 mph. The changeup and two-seam fastball needs a lot of work. Without throwing those for quality strikes it’s making him more hittable. Other than a deep NL-only league Skaggs shouldn’t be owned.

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. You can find the same, original post at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: In his last six starts, Mike Minor has a 1.80 ERA, 0.93 WHIP with a 26.5 strikeout rate and only a 5.8 walk rate. The San Francisco Giants have a much improved offense compared to the last couple of seasons, but they rank in the bottom third of the league in OPS against left handed pitching. In 19 career starts at home, Chris Sale has a 2.25 ERA and 0.93 WHIP compared to a 3.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road. Don’t let Friday’s box score fool you, Sale pitched extremely well, but threw one bad pitch to Josh Donaldson.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: If you remove Julio Teheran’s first three starts of the year he has 2.13 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. What’s most impressive about Teheran is he’s not walking anyone; only allowing eight walks in 55 innings (3.7 walk rate), which puts him in Cliff Lee and Bartolo Colon territory. In Madison Bumgarner’s last four starts, at Colorado, Washington, at Oakland and at St. Louis, he has a 6.29 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Consistency is one attribute he has lacked in his career. Since 2011, 13 percent of starts have been blowup starts (a start with five earned runs or more). John Lackey has morphed himself into a ground-ball pitcher, generating ground balls nearly 55 percent of the time. Also, the command of his fastball has been exceptional; throwing it for strikes 68 percent of the time and in the bottom of the strike zone. This week, he’s scheduled to pitch against the second best offense (in terms of OPS) in the majors, so this will be a great opportunity to show his resurgence is legitimate.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: C.J. Wilson, in his last four starts (27 innings), only has four walks, which is great for every Wilson owner. Throughout his career (as a starter), walks have always been an issue for him. But if this trend continues, he could be a top-30 starting pitcher the rest of the year. This section contains a lot of highly touted rookie pitchers: Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, Tyler Skaggs, Jose Fernandez and Dan Straily. I ranked Cole the highest because he has the best combination of skill, stuff, bullpen and quality of team around him. Jim Callis has noted Cole “has made two scoreless seven-inning starts in the last week, issuing just two walks in the process and snapping Myers’ 12-game hitting streak on Wednesday.” Mike Leake has pitched very well in his past five starts (1.13 ERA and 1.10 WHIP), but three of those starts came against come against the Marlins, Mets, and Pirates, not exactly the best offenses in the National League.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Michael Wacha has either looked great or extremely hittable in first two starts, but he gets an opportunity to start against two of the four worst offenses (in OPS) in the league. I’m buying Ian Kennedy either through trade or waivers. Kennedy has not pitched nearly as bad as his 5.72 ERA suggests. Before Thursday’s blowup, he only had a 1.24 WHIP. Walks have been an issue this year, but this is a pitcher who pitches in the most favorable division in the majors. If you remove Jon Lester’s first four starts he has a 4.42 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with a 18 percent strikeout rate and 8.7 percent walk rate.

Avoid

Additional Information: It’s safe to say Edwin Jackson has been a disappointment for fantasy owners, but there is hope for optimism. In his last six starts, he’s only allowed 10 walks in 30.1 innings. However, in the same time frame, he has a 7.71 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. Boston has the best offense in the league (in OPS), and Chris Tillman’s stuff isn’t as powering as his statistics indicate. In R.A. Dickey’s last start against the Giants, his knuckleball averaged 79 mph, which is the velocity he had last year. But with two starts in two of the most hitter friendly ballparks, I’m benching him if I can.