Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. You can find the same, original post at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: In his last six starts, Mike Minor has a 1.80 ERA, 0.93 WHIP with a 26.5 strikeout rate and only a 5.8 walk rate. The San Francisco Giants have a much improved offense compared to the last couple of seasons, but they rank in the bottom third of the league in OPS against left handed pitching. In 19 career starts at home, Chris Sale has a 2.25 ERA and 0.93 WHIP compared to a 3.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road. Don’t let Friday’s box score fool you, Sale pitched extremely well, but threw one bad pitch to Josh Donaldson.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: If you remove Julio Teheran’s first three starts of the year he has 2.13 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. What’s most impressive about Teheran is he’s not walking anyone; only allowing eight walks in 55 innings (3.7 walk rate), which puts him in Cliff Lee and Bartolo Colon territory. In Madison Bumgarner’s last four starts, at Colorado, Washington, at Oakland and at St. Louis, he has a 6.29 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Consistency is one attribute he has lacked in his career. Since 2011, 13 percent of starts have been blowup starts (a start with five earned runs or more). John Lackey has morphed himself into a ground-ball pitcher, generating ground balls nearly 55 percent of the time. Also, the command of his fastball has been exceptional; throwing it for strikes 68 percent of the time and in the bottom of the strike zone. This week, he’s scheduled to pitch against the second best offense (in terms of OPS) in the majors, so this will be a great opportunity to show his resurgence is legitimate.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: C.J. Wilson, in his last four starts (27 innings), only has four walks, which is great for every Wilson owner. Throughout his career (as a starter), walks have always been an issue for him. But if this trend continues, he could be a top-30 starting pitcher the rest of the year. This section contains a lot of highly touted rookie pitchers: Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, Tyler Skaggs, Jose Fernandez and Dan Straily. I ranked Cole the highest because he has the best combination of skill, stuff, bullpen and quality of team around him. Jim Callis has noted Cole “has made two scoreless seven-inning starts in the last week, issuing just two walks in the process and snapping Myers’ 12-game hitting streak on Wednesday.” Mike Leake has pitched very well in his past five starts (1.13 ERA and 1.10 WHIP), but three of those starts came against come against the Marlins, Mets, and Pirates, not exactly the best offenses in the National League.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Michael Wacha has either looked great or extremely hittable in first two starts, but he gets an opportunity to start against two of the four worst offenses (in OPS) in the league. I’m buying Ian Kennedy either through trade or waivers. Kennedy has not pitched nearly as bad as his 5.72 ERA suggests. Before Thursday’s blowup, he only had a 1.24 WHIP. Walks have been an issue this year, but this is a pitcher who pitches in the most favorable division in the majors. If you remove Jon Lester’s first four starts he has a 4.42 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with a 18 percent strikeout rate and 8.7 percent walk rate.

Avoid

Additional Information: It’s safe to say Edwin Jackson has been a disappointment for fantasy owners, but there is hope for optimism. In his last six starts, he’s only allowed 10 walks in 30.1 innings. However, in the same time frame, he has a 7.71 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. Boston has the best offense in the league (in OPS), and Chris Tillman’s stuff isn’t as powering as his statistics indicate. In R.A. Dickey’s last start against the Giants, his knuckleball averaged 79 mph, which is the velocity he had last year. But with two starts in two of the most hitter friendly ballparks, I’m benching him if I can.

In his last five starts Jarrod Parker has a 2.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 21 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate. Prior to those five starts he had a 7.34 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, 14.7 percent strikeout rate and 10.6 walk rate. After watching all of his starts it was obvious to me he was locating his pitches better, which made his pitches more effective. The beauty of TruMedia Networks tool is it allows me to easily visualize and reinforce what I’ve been seeing. Parker is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, throwing the fastball and changeup 84.5 percent of the time.

The image below shows the pitch location of the fastball in Parker’s last five starts compared the first seven. After looking at the image it’s no surprise hitters were hitting .380 to begin the season and only .236 in his last five starts.

The image below shows the pitch location of the changeup. The same date ranges are the same as before. To begin the year he left the changeup up in the middle of the zone; the sweet spot for most hitters.

Basically, Jarrod Parker is back. If I could get via trade I would try to do so. I would even give up Patrick Corbin for him. That come as a surprise, but I do not believe Corbin is this good and he’s going to regress eventually.

Test

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. You can find the same, original post at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: In his last five starts (including the one on Saturday), Justin Verlander has a 7.42 ERA and is walking a little more than nine percent of batters. However, with a 33 percent strikeout rate his struggles have been command rather than his stuff. This week he pitches against the 5th best team in OPS in the majors. Stephen Strasburg left the game on Friday after two innings due to a slight oblique strain. Nationals manager Davey Johnson said Strasburg’s next start could be pushed back if necessary. The Detroit Tigers have the second best OPS against left handed pitching, but Matt Moore isn’t necessarily a bona fide.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: Maybe I should have Clay Buchholz higher, but I wasn’t a believer in the preseason, and I’m still not. In the month of May, CC Sabathia has a 4.14 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and now faces one of the best offenses in majors. The month of May has been kind to Gio Gonzalez. He has a 2.48 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Gonzalez is a walker (nearly 11 percent walk rate this year) and like most walkers will have a higher likelihood of blowup outings than non-walkers. He’s a set-it and forget-it pitcher. I fully admit I’m overly optimistic about Matt Garza, but the stuff has looked great, and he faces the Pirates, the 24th-ranked team in OPS.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: This section is where most of us have the toughest decisions. Usually, we have two to four pitchers we’re debating between. Since joining the rotation in late March, Corey Kluber is striking out 26 percent of batters and is only walking 5.1 percent of batters. Don’t look at his 4.70 ERA as it’s likely to regress with the aforementioned peripherals. He’s only owned in 23 percent of NFBC leagues, so he’s most likely available in your league. In Jarrod Parker’s last four starts, he has a 2.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. The reason why I’m a believer is he’s throwing more quality strikes. Specifically, in the beginning of the season, he threw a lot of pitches in the middle of the zone, and now he’s throwing strikes on the corners. Jon Lester has a 5.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The most worrisome is the drop in strikeout rate. To begin the year, it was 21.5 percent and now it’s only 17 percent. In his last six starts, Rick Porcello has a 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while striking out 25 percent of batters. That is not a misprint.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Brandon McCarthy was just placed on the DL. It looks like Tyler Skaggs will take McCarthy’s rotation spot. I would rank Skaggs 79 overall for this week (assuming he takes McCarthy’s starts). Chris Tillman has two very favorable matchups, which is why he’s ranked so high. Every time I watch Tillman pitch, I don’t understand why hitters don’t square his pitches more often because it’s not plus (on the scouting scale) stuff. Phil Hughes gives up a lot of fly balls and home runs. What better situation than a ballpark where fly balls never leave the park. If you’re a R. A. Dickey owner you have to keep him on your bench. The velocity of the knuckleball is still in the mid-70s and it doesn’t have the same life as it did last year. Despite the solid baseball card statistics, Jonathan Pettibone is a fringe major leaguer, but with a start against the Marlins, I would be very tempted to put him in my lineup.

Avoid

Additional Information: Chris Archer did not look as bad as the box score would indicate. He has a plus-plus (on the scouting scale) fastball that sits in the mid-90s and maxed out at 99 mph. He also has a devastating slider and a solid changeup. If I knew for sure he was guaranteed a start this upcoming week, I would rank him 73rd overall. I know what the numbers say for Francisco Liriano this year, but I rather believe the past four years than the last four starts.