Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Andrew Bailey blew another a save in glorious fashion last night. As I watched the game I knew this was the last time Bailey will get a save opportunity for a long time. After the game John Farrell said Bailey was out as the closer and that they would look at internal options for his replacement. The must add in every format should be Junichi Tazawa.

Angel Pagan was carted off the field yesterday in rehab assignment in High-A San Jose; it appears as though he aggravated his hamstring again. It looks as though he’s going to need surgery, which should put him out for much longer. Until a time table is known you have to hold on to him, but as a Pagan owner in one league I’m most likely going to drop him on Sunday during my weekly moves.

I watched the Matt Moore with great anticipation because I own him in most of my leagues and he’s been so bad of late. For the first three innings his fastball sat in the low 90s, but he in the fourth and fifth inning the fastball sat 93-95 mph. In the sixth the fastball was back in the low 90s. The reason why I bring up the fluctuation in his fastball velocity is because his velocity has been down two mph this year. For the first five innings he looked good; he had good command of his secondary offerings and sequenced his pitches effectively. However, all that changed in the sixth inning as he lost the command of his fastball; missing up in the zone. To begin the inning he allowed a solid single, then proceeded to walk the next two hitters, loading up the bases. His next start is at home against the Blue Jays and he’s likely to be in the 55-65 range when I do the starting pitcher rankings tomorrow. The quality of his stuff undeniable, but like his start yesterday, he can look great for 4-5 innings and then look extremely bad the next inning.

Like most baseball enthusiasts I watched Zack Wheeler pitch against the Braves. He has an easy delivery and hides the ball well. In the first inning his fastball sat in the upper 90s (97-98 mph), but after that inning it sat 95-96 mph. The fastball has good late movement and has a lot of late life. The biggest concern I had was the lack of command of all of his pitches (fastball, slider, changeup and curveball); it looked as though he wasn’t closing his front shoulder in his delivery. According to Jason Parks at Baseball Prospectus he rated the curveball as plus pitch with “heavy depth/tight rotation.” Yesterday the slider looked like the best pitch as he was able to throw it for strikes more often. Both the slider and curveball flashed plus, but he was never able to command them; the heat map of the pitch frequency can be found below. Overall, he has the raw ingredients to be a number one starter, but he’s far from being that guy right now. For fantasy, he’s a top 50-55 starting pitcher so he should be added in all leagues. Remember, he plays on one of the worst teams in the league and will likely not receive a lot of run support. If you own him, I suggest trading for him for a top 20-30 starting pitcher because that is the perceived value of him right now among a good portion of the fantasy community.

Tom Wilhelmsen at Baseball Prospectus Wheeler’s best secondary offering is the curveball, which has an opportunity to be a 7 pitch (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with “heavy depth/tight rotation.” His best secondary pitch was the slider as he was able to throw more strikes with it. Overall, the slider and curveball flashed a lot of promise, but most of the time they were not thrown for strikes consistently, which is why he had five walks. In the last 2-3 innings the hitters were looking for fastballs and started to time the fastball, which limited his effectiveness. Basically, he’s not a finished product and has a long ways to go before he starts to dominate or be very good. In terms of his fantasy value I don’t know if he’ll stay in the rotation because after the game the Mets optioned him to Triple-A; the Mets broadcasters noted that it’s possible that since he’s the 26th player he could still be eligible to take his next turn with the Mets on Tuesday. Assuming he’s in the majors the rest of the year I would say he’s a top 50-55 pitcher, which means he should be added in all formats. If I owned him, I would trade him because I bet you could get a top 20-30 pitcher for him. blew another lead, allowing a home run to Albert Pujols. In the tenth inning Yoervis Medina saved the game. Wilhelmsen is not the closer and the incumbent closer, Carter Capps has pitched like crap so it looks as though the Mariners are going to go with a closer by committee. If I was going to own a Mariners reliever in the short term I would want Oliver Perez; for the rest of the year I want Wilhelmsen.

Lastly, I want to talk about Esmil Rogers of the Toronto Blue Jays. With the Blue Jays desperate for starting pitching, they’ve allowed Rogers to make three starts: Rangers, @Rangers and Rockies. In this small sample he has a 2.04 ERA, 0.85 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 18.2 percent and has only walked four batters in 17.2 innings. Normally most analysts may chalk this up to a small sample size, but Rogers looks to be legit. Before he entered the starting rotation, Rogers learned a two-seam fastball/power sinker; it’s thrown in the low, to mid-90s with excellent movement, good depth and heavy sink, which allows him to get on the hands of right handed batters and to pitch away to lefties; this allows him to generate a lot of weak contact and ground balls (51 percent ground ball rate). He’s most likely available in all formats and he’s a must add in all formats.

Francisco Liriano finally allowed his first home run of the year. In fact he allowed two home runs last night. This start was not as dominant as his previous starts as he left a lot of fastballs in the middle of of the zone. His night could have been worse if it wasn’t for an outstanding play by Starling Marte in the third and Shin-Soo Choo getting caught stealing in the first inning. Overall, his command wasn’t very good and he didn’t generate a lot of swings and misses. For the season he has the second best swing and miss rate (32.4 percent) in the majors, but is also walking batters 9.3 percent of the time, which puts him in the bottom 15 percent of the league. I do not like pitchers who have control issues because they’re extremely unpredictable. If you own him, sell high.

Now let’s talk about some positive news. Josh Johnson pitched 7.1 innings and recorded ten strikeouts against the Rockies. He achieved a lot of those strikeouts by challenging hitters with fastballs up in the zone. Speaking of the fastball, he threw it and the cutter on both sides of the plate effectively. The slider looked good as he threw it down and in to lefties and down away from righties (same location). His next starts are against offensive juggernauts Orioles, Red Sox and Tigers so you’re going to be using him any time soon. I’m not a believer that he’s “back”, but if he’s available in your league, add him because his upside is immense.

Adeiny Hechavarria can really pick it at shortstop. I haven’t had a chance to see him play that much because it’s the Marlins, but he made at least four plays that saved hitters from getting hits. He has good range and body control with a good arm. For fantasy he shouldn’t be owned except for a NL-only league. Jacob Turner pitched in this game and I was not impressed as his command was loose the entire game and wasn’t missing enough bats to compensate. For the season he’s almost at a ten percent walk rate, which like I mentioned with Liriano, is something I stay away from. Turner should be owned only in NL-only leagues.