Disclaimer
Nothing discussed/written should be considered as investment advice. Please do your own research or speak to a financial advisor before putting a dime of your money into these crazy markets. In other words, if you buy something I bought, you deserve to lose your money.
The only reason why I am making my portfolio public because it provides accountability to me. Some or all the analysis I provide could be from the top of my head and should not be considered accurate.
My investing goal is simple; to try to manage risk while being fully invested without market timing. Howard Marks said it best, “even though we can’t predict, we can prepare.”
All my references to the Market are only for the US Market.
Performance
YTD I am up 17% versus 14% for the SP 500.
The table below is a breakdown of my portfolio at the end of Q3. What you see below where my entire net worth, excluding my home, is allocated.
Portfolio Activity
Opened a position in Charter (CHTR). The company is essentially an internet and mobile phone business. There probably won’t be a lot of organic growth but its trading at 5.5 earnings but its buying back its shares. Since 2020 they have bought back 29.5% of its shares and since last year 3.77% shares were repurchased. If they make $50 per share and if the multiple increases to 10 then the stock is worth $500.
I opened a small position in United Healthcare (UNH). After doing some digging and after a 30% increase I exited my position. During my reading I got vibes of GE; a company so big that I don’t think I would understand all the moving parts enough to feel like I understand the business. I know a lot of smart people have bought the stock but I had to exit.
I opened a position in Portillos (PTLO). I’ve never eaten there but the data looks amazing. In March of this year they launched their Loyalty Rewards Program and they already have 1.9 million people signed up. They operate 94 restaurants which means on a per restaurant basis they have more than 20,000 loyalty members. To put this into context, Chipotle has 40 million loyalty members across 3,700 locations which averages out to 10,000 loyalty members per restaurant. Portillo’s has double the number of Chipotle. In 2014 a private equity firm bought Portillos for $1 billion. Today the company has a market cap of $509 million.
The value investor bias can’t help but get excited about banks trading for less than their book value. Bankfirst Corp (BFCC) is trading at about 60% of book value. Management authorized a $10 million dollar buyback (about 4% of its market cap) and has already purchased 21,909 shares for $785,000 (average price of $35.83). Non-performing assets to total assets of 0.51% as of March 31, 2025 compared to 0.42% March 31, 2024.
I exited my position in Seaport Entertainment Group (SEG) at 34.6% profit. The company fired the CEO and CFO with additional changes to the board. Part of my thesis was the CEO and his successful history. I’ll continue to follow the company but I am out.
I opened a position in Olin Corporation (OLN). The company is manufacturer and distributor of chemical products and a leading U.S. manufacturer of ammunition (Winchester). They produce a myriad of chemical products such as chlorine, ethylene dichloride, hydrochloric acid and allylics. The stock is down 53% in one year due to cyclicality nature of their business. Additionally, Winchester is the largest ammunition maker in the US (to individuals and the US Army and government). Despite this company still pays a dividend and has a 8% free cash flow yield and the company is buying back stock. Lastly, the first debt maturities doesn’t begin until 2029.
I opened a position in Crocs (CROX). I personally had a bias against their product because I would never buy their shoes. However, I cannot deny the popularity of their shoes. The company has a market cap of $4.4 billion and an enterprise value of $5.8 billion along with a free cash flow yield of $750 million. On top management is buying back their stock; YTD they’ve bought back $580 million. The brand recently said sales grew 30% in China which is amazing for an American company. With fashion the shelf life of a product could evaporate very quickly but at the price I paid I think on a risk-reward basis it is a bet worth making.
Quotes & Charts
“We avoid doing simple things that work because they don’t make us look smart.”
“Smart people feel stupid doing simple things, so we invent complicated alternatives that accomplish less but feel more intellectually satisfying.”
“Meanwhile, the people who dominate their fields are doing embarrassingly basic things, but they do them better than everyone else.”
“The 2021-2023 inflation was fundamentally fiscal in origin, caused by massive spending without credible repayment plans rather than monetary policy or supply shocks.”
Source: https://larryswedroe.substack.com/p/understanding-the-recent-inflation
Source: https://x.com/Greenbackd/status/1960382822868500648
Source: https://x.com/Greenbackd/status/1970943127541461058
Source: https://x.com/JeffWeniger/status/1958652242828898346
Source: https://www.kkr.com/content/dam/kkr/insights/pdf/2025-mid-year-outlook.pdf
Source: https://www.man.com/insights/road-ahead-gold
“This means that there are at least two potential upside levers for international value stocks going forward. In addition to mean reversion of valuation spreads within international markets, we also believe there is an upside opportunity from narrowing the valuation discount between international markets and the US. We believe that the combination of these two discounts—particularly among small- and micro-cap firms—offers one of the most attractive setups in global equities today.”
Source: https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/resurgent-international-value?e=e1c5773556
Source: https://x.com/theallocator_/status/1949803208924176824
Source: https://x.com/MebFaber/status/1953855575277678643
