Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

Pitching Notes

Kyle Kendricks has been put up some really good numbers since making his Major League debut in early July, but I’m not buying yet. Let me clarify. He’s not going to continue to have a sub-2.00 ERA, but can he have an ERA in the 3.30-3.50 range the rest of the year? Yes, he can because he doesn’t walk batters and has pretty good command of the strike zone. However, his upside is limited from a fantasy perspective because he doesn’t miss enough bats (16 percent) to startable in shallower formats.

On the surface Drew Smyly’s start at the Blue Jays looks like he’s a must sit, but not necessarily. Before I looked up the statistics I thought the Jays would smash lefties because their lineup is so right handed heavy. However, the Jays are only 21^st in the majors in wOBA and 20^th in OPS. My ranking suggests he’s not a must start in a shallow leagues because he has been inconsistent all year and can be prone to more random blowup starts.

Stephen Strasburg is a really good pitcher, but I’m getting to the point where I’m starting to question his internal fortitude. It seems as though when hitters reach base he loses focus and becomes even more hittable. For example, in his career, when runners are not on-base hitters have a .591 OPS, but when runners are on-base batters have a .696 OPS. To put those numbers into perspective starting pitchers (with at least five starts this year) have a .696 OPS when the bases are empty and a .709 OPS when runners are on-base. The discrepancy is much lower in the aggregate compared to a 100 point difference for Strasburg. He has the upside to be a top five starting pitcher, but I don’t think it’s going to happen until he performs better when batters are on-base.

Since joining the Yankees Brandon McCarthy has a 2.21 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP with a 23.2 percent strikeout rate and a 3.9 percent walk rate. If he pitched in front of an above average defense he would be a must start in all formats, but that’s not the case especially when Derek Jeter is playing. In the last 30 days the Astros are eleventh in the majors in wOBA against righties and the lineup could get a boost if George Springer comes off the DL.

After the first two months of the season I ranked Ian Kennedy as a top 20-30 starting pitcher because he was missing a ton of bats and wasn’t walking batters. However, since June his walk rate is 9.9 percent and it looks as though it’s not going to substantially improve in the near future. He’s still missing a lot of bats, which will allow him to have really good starts in bursts, but he’s no longer an automatic start (even when he’s pitching at home).

After watching most of R.A. Dickey’s starts I’ve come to the conclusion that if you own him you have to leave him in your starting lineup regardless of how well/poor he has performed previously. I’ve tried “scouting” him, but I haven’t been able to gleam anything from what he’s doing. It seems as though the quality of the knuckleball changes from inning to inning and start to start. He gets to pitch in a National League park, but Miller Park is one of the worst parks for his fly ball heavy skill set.

Kevin Gausman has been underwhelming in his last five starts. He’s stopped missing bats (15.7 percent strikeout rate) and has been walking a lot of batters (9.4 percent walk rate). With any young pitcher there is going to be inconsistency, but I’m still a believer in his ultimate skill set moving forward. I’m expecting a bounce back start against a mediocre-below average offense in the Cubs.

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. No write-ups this week; too many things got in the way this week. If you have any questions hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. The write ups were written on Thursday so some of the match up information may be incorrect, but the overall recommendation in the write up is what is most important.

Must-start pitchers

Jon Lester makes his Athletics debut on Saturday against the Royals and I wrote yesterday he’s not going to continue to have a sub-2.60 ERA, but what he’s doing is legit. He’s missing a lot of bats again, gets to pitch in a great pitcher’s ballpark and will have luxury of the best outfield defense in the majors (when Craig Gentry and Coco Crisp are healthy). The Royals are 21^st in the majors in OPS against lefties. If you own him you’re starting him regardless, but I would trade for him. … David Price goes to a slightly better team in the Tigers, but the trade hurts his fantasy value. First, he leaves the pitcher friendly confines of Tampa Bay to a neutral pitcher’s park. Second, the Tigers have a bad outfield defense. Torii Hunter has lost a step; Rajai Davis and J.D. Martinez are both well below average defenders. The infield defense isn’t much better. Nick Castellanos has quietly been almost as bad as Miguel Cabrera, who also has not been good at first base. It’s only been 42 games for Eugenio Suarez so I will forgo judgment.

Stream options in 10-team & must-starts in 12-team

After a rocky two months of the season it looks as though Jake Odorizzi has finally turned the corner. In his last nine starts he has not allowed more than three earned runs (he only allowed three once). During this stretch he has a 25.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.5 percent walk rate. The walk rate may not jump off the page but it was nearly ten percent before his current stretch. … Mike Minor has not pitched well lately; he has a 7.00 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in his last five starts. I’m still a believer in Minor for the rest of this year and beyond. The quality of his stuff is intact and the reason why he’s struggled has been due to bad command. Bad command can be fixed more easily than a decrease in velocity. It’s possible the injury he suffered (a strained shoulder recovering from a urinary tract surgery) in the offseason has contributed to his poor command. It’s possible a normal regimen corrects this in 2015. He probably will not return to the 3.21 ERA this year because his command has been much worse, but he is going to be one of my sleepers heading into drafts in 2015. … Zack Wheeler has been impressive in his last five starts: 1.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP with a 21.7 and 6.5 percent strikeout rate and walk rate respectively. He’s looked better and I like how he’s not walking as many batters, but it’s important to note the competition he’s facing: Phillies, Brewers, Marlins, Rangers and Padres. This week he gets the Phillies again and the Nationals. He’s pitched well enough to start in 12-team mixed leagues, but I would be worried about the Nationals matchup.

Stream options in 12-team & must-starts in 15-team

Jesse Hahn has been a tremendous find for the Padres. His fastball sits in the low 90s, but he can ramp it up to 96-97 mph if he wants to. He’s mostly throws a curveball and changeup as well as the occasional slider. The best pitch is the curveball, which is a true bat miser. What I love about Hahn is he’s been a ground ball machine (51 percent), but I think that regresses because fastball-curveball pitchers tend to allow more fly balls. He’s not going to continue to have an ERA in the low-2s, but an ERA in the 3.25-3.35 range is very possible. For more information about Hahn you check out this piece from Doug Thorburn.

Stream options in 15-team

If you look at Hiroki Kuroda’s last three seasons his numbers are almost identical with the exception being a slight decrease in the strikeout rate and ERA this year. Since his brutal April he has a 3.62 ERA and has been consistent. However, this week he faces the Tigers and Indians, two teams in the top five in OPS against righties. Even in deeper leagues I’m trying to find other options if I can.

Pitchers to start only in dire circumstances

Justin Masterson will make his Cardinals debut against the Orioles. After he was traded to the Cardinals I said Masterson was a buy low. However, in this start at the Orioles I’m trying to find other options. The Cardinals have fixed pitchers in the past and I wouldn’t be surprised if he turns it around. … Since the no-hitter I have been a relatively high on Tim Lincecum’s fantasy value for the rest of the year. In his last two starts he has looked like the Lincecum of the past two seasons, giving up 11 earned runs in 7.2 innings. This week he’s a two start pitcher and I’m avoiding him because of that fact. If he was a one start pitcher at the Royals he would be 10-15 spots higher in the ranks, but the start at Brewers worries me. … Tyler Skaggs has been unlucky with the 63 percent strand rate, which has inflated his ERA. Maybe that is expected considering he’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher and throws a lot of strikes and therefore will be subject to his defense generating outs. I’ve said all year if the changeup comes around he’s going to be really good. This week gets the Dodgers and Red Sox, two teams in the lower half in OPS against lefties. He left Thursday’s game with an apparent injury so his starts next week could be compromised.