Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.

I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.

My Strategy

To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.

With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.

Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.

Last Note

This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.

My Lineup

• P: Gerrit Cole (PIT) vs. M. Leake (CIN) — $8,600
• P: Scott Kazmir (OAK) vs. R. Detwiler (TEX) — $7,400
  
• C: Buster Posey (SF) vs. J. Hellickson (ARI) — $4,400
• 1B: Jose Abreu (CHW) vs. D. Duffy (KC) — $4,900
• 2B: Hidden
  
• 3B: Pablo Sandoval (BOS) vs. A. Harang (PHI) — $4,300
  
• SS: Hanley Ramirez (BOS) vs. A. Harang (PHI) — $4,800
  
• OF: Mookie Betts (BOS) vs. A. Harang (PHI) — $4,300
• OF: Hidden
  
• OF: Hidden

I’m stacking the Red Sox against Aaron Harang. I wanted to stream D-backs hitters, but I have no idea whose going to be starting from day to day. Jose Abreu’s OPS is 170 points higher against lefties and he faces the erratic Danny Duffy. Scott Kazmir wore down towards the end of the season, which dragged down his overall numbers, but his arm is fresh and I expect a very good outing. I was debating between Gerrit Cole and Brandon McCarthy, and ultimately went with Cole because of the higher chance for a win and more strikeouts. Also, I don’t believe in the Dodger bullpen to hold the lead for McCarthy.

I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.

I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.

My Strategy

To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.

With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.

Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.

Last Note

This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.

My Lineup

• P: Zack Greinke (LAD) vs. T. Ross (SD) — $8,800
• P: Lance Lynn (STL) vs. J. Arrieta (CHC) — $8,300
  
• C: Mike Zunino (SEA) vs. C. Wilson (LAA) — $3,600
• 1B: Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) vs. R. Vogelsong (SF) — $5,200
• 2B: Hidden
  
• 3B: Jake Lamb (ARI) vs. R. Vogelsong (SF) — $3,600
  
• SS: Chris Owings (ARI) vs. R. Vogelsong (SF) — $3,600
  
• OF: Mark Trumb (ARI) vs. A. Wood (ATL) — $4,200
• OF: Hidden
  
• OF: Hidden

I’m stacking the Diamondbacks hitters against Ryan Vogelsong because the past two seasons he has a 5.53 ERA and 1.572 WHIP on the road. I expect a lot of runs to be scored and for players atop the D-backs lineup to be the beneficiary.

I’m going with Lance Lynn because he has a great chance for a win and the Cubs looked so bad on Sunday. They took bad at-bats and some of the hitters looked lost at the plate (Jorge Soler).

I was debating between Mike Zunino and Rene Rivera (they both have the same price) and I ultimately went with Zunino because I have less faith in C.J. Wilson. Wilson can be very erratic from start to start and there’s a higher possibility he serves up a cookie to Zunino.

Blue Jays at Yankees

I didn’t see a problem with Masahiro Tanaka’s stuff. In the first two innings he was throwing all four of pitches for strikes and he threw them any time in the count. Much has been made about the decrease in fastball velocity (he was sitting 90 mph compared to 92-93 this time last year), but his biggest problem was command as he left some fastballs in the middle of the plate. If he’s going to sit 90 then his command will have to improve. If you own him you have to hold onto him.

Tanaka is getting all the headlines, but Drew Hutchison was the story. In the offseason I projected 200 strikeouts because of how dominant he looked last year after he changed the grip of the slider. He was staked to a five run lead after three innings and he pitched appropriately. He threw a ton of strikes (56 of 92 pitches were strikes) and went right after hitters. The slider looked almost as good as last September. Needless to say, if he’s available in your league then go get him.

Other Notes

Both Jim Johnson and Jason Grilli had perfect outings, but Johnson was the far better pitcher. Again, it’s only one outing, but Grilli was leaving fastballs up and in the middle of the zone, which will eventually get punished by hitters. Grilli may have a relatively long leash because he was successful in his first attempt, but if I were a betting man I would say he’s not the closer at the end of April.

It looks like the Mets do not want to use Jeurys Familia in closing situations. Buddy Carlyle got the two out save because Jenrry Mejia was unavailable due to elbow soreness. My best guess is Carlyle gets the next save chance if Mejia is hurt, but you never know what the Mets are going to do. Long term you should own Bobby Parnell because he gets the job once he’s back on the Major League roster.

Mike Moustakas hit in the two hole, which is something to monitor if you’re deep mixed leagues. Moustakas had a good post season and Spring Training so maybe the Royals know something we do not. However, despite his good numbers I’m still not buying in.