Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

I like Minnesota to cover tonight against the Buccaners (Bucs). About hour ago the line increased .5 points (from 5 to 5.5). It’s important to note the line opened at -6.5. One might say all of the Bucs loses were close (less than 7), but my retort is their only wins have been against the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs, two of the worst six teams in the NFL.

The last two weeks Josh Freeman has seen a resurgence in terms of his play. It doesn’t hurt he played against two of worst four defenses in the league. The Vikings are the 9th best defense. I’m very skeptical about Freeman from a fantasy and a real life standpoint. Vincent Jackson’s fantasy value has been very reliant on long catches which I think can be mitigated by the Vikings because they’re 10th in the league with 3.9 yards per pass attempt. Jackson is mid-tier #2 wide receiver. Based on Mike Williams‘ average number of targets per game (18.34%) and averaging one red zone target per game, Williams is mid-tier #3 wide receiver.

Even though I do not like the matchup, Doug Martin is a top 15 running back. I expect a lot of runs to the left side, the strength of the offensive line right at Jared Allen. The Vikings secondary are pretty good tacklers so a home run play may be less likely, but the fact he will get there sheer volume of carries and I expect this game to be close makes him a top 15 running back.

The Bucs rush defense is the 3rd best while their pass defense is 323 yards per game. Even with those stats, if you have Adrian Peterson you’re playing him. However, the big opportunity is for Christian Ponder and Percy Harvin, Kyle Rudolph, and Michael Jenkins to all have big games. That’s right, I said Michael Jenkins. He’s the 3rd option on the team and is averaging 16% of the total targets on the team. Also, Aqib Talib will be all over Harvin so I expect a lot of room for everyone else. If you’re in a +12 team PPR league and need a bye week fill-in Jenkins can give you 6 catches for 80 yards. I’m in a 14 team league where we start 3 wide receivers and I’m starting him today.

Since I expect the Vikings to move the ball relatively easily I expect a big day from Blair Walsh. He’s currently tied for 4th as the highest scoring kicker this year and should be owned all leagues regardless of today’s great matchup.

Week 7 Tight End Results

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Byes: Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers

The Actual Rankings are based my scoring primer. It basically follows ESPNs standard scoring but uses fractional points and slightly devalues passing touchdowns.

Time to give myself a pat on the back about Dustin Keller. I had him the highest amongst all the rankers at 9. Anytime a player is the best receiving option, fantasy owners should flock to own them like Stockton, California residents flock to meth. If I were ranking Keller for the rest of the year I would have him at 5, behind Gronkowski, Hernandez, Witten and Daniels. I considered Heath Miller for the 5 spot, but with so many options on the Steelers it’s hard to have him above Keller.

I pumped up Colby Fleener last week with a 10 ranking, but he only received two targets. It’s safe to say Fleener is not a reliable fantasy option moving forward.

Week 7 Running Back Results

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Byes: Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers

The Actual Rankings are based my scoring primer. It basically follows ESPNs standard scoring but uses fractional points and slightly devalues passing touchdowns.

Is Chris Johnson back to being a top 15 running back again? No, but he’s knocking on the doorstep. Christoper Harris mentioned on the Fantasy Underground Podcast 90% of his struggles came from poor offensive line play, which I agree with. I think there is still an opportunity to buy low on him. If I were offered Johnson for Doug Martin I would think long and hard (insert joke here) about it. If my team consisted of stable players I do the deal because Johnson’s upside is so much higher right now. The most important tidbit going overlooked about Johnson is his durability. A common perception about smaller agile running backs is they tend to get hurt a lot, not Johnson.

Doug Martin is a consistent fantasy player, which makes him an ugly Betty, my kind of player. If Martin started to receive more goaline carries he would be a top 10 running back. It’s easy to blame the Bucs for not giving him goaline carries; LeGarrette Blount has the physical makeup of a goaline back, but has the instincts of a 14 year old looking for a girl to dance with at the first dance of the year.

I have no idea what to make of Darren McFadden. He’s had a lousy year and he’s been 100% healthy too. There were a few glimpses where his raw physical ability came through, but they were far to rare of an occurrence. If you’re a McFadden owner all you can do is hold on to him and play him. Unless you get offered a trade for his full draft day value, I don’t recommend trading him.

Jonathan Dwyer has looked the best of all the Steeler running backs this year. However, it’s a toss up if he he’ll be fantasy relevant on Sunday with Mendenhall and Redman possibly coming back. This year, Dwyer has 192 yards on 41 attempts (4.7 YPA), Redman has 127 yards on 50 attempts (2.5 YPA) and Mendenhall has 74 yards on 18 attempts (3.9 YPA). I would give Dwyer another opportunity to start. If Mendenhall and Redman are out, Dwyer is a top 20 running back.