Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Week 7 Running Back Results

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Byes: Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers

The Actual Rankings are based my scoring primer. It basically follows ESPNs standard scoring but uses fractional points and slightly devalues passing touchdowns.

Is Chris Johnson back to being a top 15 running back again? No, but he’s knocking on the doorstep. Christoper Harris mentioned on the Fantasy Underground Podcast 90% of his struggles came from poor offensive line play, which I agree with. I think there is still an opportunity to buy low on him. If I were offered Johnson for Doug Martin I would think long and hard (insert joke here) about it. If my team consisted of stable players I do the deal because Johnson’s upside is so much higher right now. The most important tidbit going overlooked about Johnson is his durability. A common perception about smaller agile running backs is they tend to get hurt a lot, not Johnson.

Doug Martin is a consistent fantasy player, which makes him an ugly Betty, my kind of player. If Martin started to receive more goaline carries he would be a top 10 running back. It’s easy to blame the Bucs for not giving him goaline carries; LeGarrette Blount has the physical makeup of a goaline back, but has the instincts of a 14 year old looking for a girl to dance with at the first dance of the year.

I have no idea what to make of Darren McFadden. He’s had a lousy year and he’s been 100% healthy too. There were a few glimpses where his raw physical ability came through, but they were far to rare of an occurrence. If you’re a McFadden owner all you can do is hold on to him and play him. Unless you get offered a trade for his full draft day value, I don’t recommend trading him.

Jonathan Dwyer has looked the best of all the Steeler running backs this year. However, it’s a toss up if he he’ll be fantasy relevant on Sunday with Mendenhall and Redman possibly coming back. This year, Dwyer has 192 yards on 41 attempts (4.7 YPA), Redman has 127 yards on 50 attempts (2.5 YPA) and Mendenhall has 74 yards on 18 attempts (3.9 YPA). I would give Dwyer another opportunity to start. If Mendenhall and Redman are out, Dwyer is a top 20 running back.

Week 7 Wide Receiver Results

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Byes: Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers

The Actual Rankings are based my scoring primer. It basically follows ESPNs standard scoring but uses fractional points and slightly devalues passing touchdowns.

There is a lot of hubbub about Jordy Nelson right now and it’s deservedly so. However, let’s throw some cold water on this fantasy darling. In the last 3 weeks Nelson does have the most targets with 29. However, James Jones and Randall Cobb have 24 and 22 targets respectively. Nelson and Cobb both have 19 receptions compared to Jones’ 13. This is an offense that spreads it around where every player gets his day in the sun.

Based on where fantasy owners drafted him this year, it’s safe to say Calvin Johnson has been a bust. Quick stat, he has yet to receive a touchdown from Matthew Stafford this year. How crazy is that? But his zero touchdowns is not a result of trying as he’s 9th overall among wide receivers in red zone targets. I do not see anything in the stats that provides the smoking gun. His catch rate is slightly down from 2011 60.8% to 56.7%. His yards per target is slightly down from 10.6 to 8.8 yards. Unless Stafford starts playing better and Titus Young or someone else in the passing game steps up it is going to be difficult for him to be a top 5 wide receiver moving forward. Howeverm he is a top 10 wide receiver moving forward.

Do I believe in Vincent Jackson? Read my tidbit about Josh Freeman and you’ll know where I stand.

Week 7 Quarterback Results

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Byes: Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers

The Actual Rankings are based my scoring primer. It basically follows ESPNs standard scoring but uses fractional points and slightly devalues passing touchdowns.

Despite a great matchup, Eli Manning, a consensus 4-5 ranking, came in 14 this week. Think how much lower he would have been if didn’t throw the 77 yard touchdown to Victor Cruz with 2 minutes left on the clock. Reliability is not Manning’s middle name. Last year he scored 14 or less fantasy points 7 times last year (44% of games). Since fantasy owners cans never tell when mediocre/below average games are going to occur, it is going to be difficult to give him must start status every week. However, odds are, if you own him you he’s starting for you.

With two breakout games against the Chiefs and Saints, the trendy quarterback right now is Josh Freeman. I’m not buying it. According to Grid Iron Rank those great performances came from 2 of the worst 4 defenses in the league. This week he plays against the Vikings, the 9th best defense. If he plays well again it may be possible he is finally starting to live up to the hype a lot of fantasy analysts gave at the start of the 2011 season.

What quarterback is third in the league with 15 touchdowns? Ryan Fitzpatrick. You’re right; you could have fooled me too. Now, his 9 INTs are concerning, but he’s been a top 10 quarterback for the year. He has a bye this and in week 9 he faces off against the Texans which is a poor matchup. However, after that, he plays the Patriots, Dolphins, Colts, Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks, Dolphins and Jets. Other than the NFC West teams, all those matchups are extremely favorable. If you own a Tony Romo, Michael Vick or Philip Rivers, you should consider acquiring Fitzpatrick.