Week 9 NFL Football Game Picks

by Matt Commins Posted on November 2, 2012

Game I Love:

Philadelphia Eagles. I’ll be the first to admit I was way off with my love for the Eagles last week. But you know what? I’m going to double down. A lot of people like the Saints to win handily, but I don’t see it. The Eagles have better talent, especially on defense. The Saints have the worst defense in football and I have to believe Michael Vick can exploit that. If the game was played on a neutral field and played 10 times, the Eagles would 6 times. If the spread was -2.5 Eagles or lower, I wouldn’t touch the game.

Oakland Raiders. The Buccaneers may be without their top two cornerbacks and most importantly, Carl Nicks, the best guard in football. I think the Bucs will have hard time running the ball against a really good Raider defensive line. By good I mean in terms of talent; for some reason they have a stinker every few weeks for no apparent reason. Couple that with Josh Freeman’s mediocre play last week, the Raiders should win 28 to 16.

Upset Specials:

Carolina Panthers. The Redskins defense is bad and banged up; their wide receivers are inconsistent and drop a lot of balls. The Panthers hung in there against the Bears last week and if it was for Newton’s costly INT in the red zone, the Panthers could have beaten the Bears.

Cleveland Browns. The Browns’ defense is a lot better than people think, 11th best according to Grid Iron Rank. Compare that to the Ravens who had 2nd worst defense the past 2 weeks. If the Ravens had a more aggressive offense I would be more inclined to take them, but they don’t. Also, with Joe Hayden matched up against Torrey Smith, Smith will have 2-4 catches for 40 yards. Trent Richardson runs for 150-180 yards with +30 carries. Browns win 14 to 10.

[table “” not found /]
Posted in Football Picks | Leave a comment

Thursday Game Preview: Kansas City at San Diego

by Matt Commins Posted on November 1, 2012

I don’t feel good about the Chiefs at all, but I have to believe the Chiefs will run the ball a lot with Jamaal Charles. Also, the Chiefs have a lot of talent and I cannot believe the poor play continues. Matt Cassel is back, which is a definite upgrade over Brady Quinn. Philip Rivers and the Chargers, specifically the offensive line and wide receivers look lost. If I knew Ryan Matthews was going to stay on the field during 3rd downs I would like the Chargers chances a lot more. But for some reason Norv Turner loves having Ronnie Brown as his 3rd down back.

The line opened at -8 Chargers, so there’s a lot of money on the Chiefs.

[table “” not found /]
Posted in Fantasy Football, Football Picks | Leave a comment

Fantasy Football Week 8 Running Back Results

by Matt Commins Posted on October 30, 2012

Week 8 Running Back Results

[table “” not found /]

Byes: Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans

The Actual Rankings are based my scoring primer. It basically follows ESPNs standard scoring but uses fractional points and slightly devalues passing touchdowns.

Opportunity is just as important as ability when it comes to fantasy value. Willis McGahee is  a top 10 running back not because his skill set, but because of an opportunity to get the lions share of carries in a top 10 offense. Lastly, do not worry about Ronnie Hillman because he only got work because McGahee was tired and needed a breather. Hillman is a must own if you’re a McGahee owner.

When Kansas City Chiefs Coach Romeo Cronell was asked why did Jamaal Charles only get 5 rushing attempts his answer was “I don’t know.” If you’re the owner how can you not want to fire him after that? This is the 3rd game (out of 7) this year he’s gotten 4 or less fantasy points. I hate players that are feast or famine because there are weeks where they win you weeks and other times they lose you weeks. I think it’s ok to have one player like that, but when you own 2+ you’re begging to either finish 1st or last. If I owned him I would try to trade him for maybe 95 cents on the dollar.

Chris Johnson had another solid game. After watching the tape the offensive line is creating more holes and more open space for him. His next four games are against the Bears, Dolphins, Jaguars and Texans, this is a perfect opportunity to sell high.

If you take away his touchdown Felix Jones would have had an awful day. In the last two weeks he’s averaged 2.43 yards per carry. After watching the tape, the Cowboys offensive line is awful in pass protection and didn’t get a lot of push on running plays. That said, during the few runs with open lanes Jones failed to exploit them; instead moving horizontally toward the sidelines. Even if Demarco Murray is out this upcoming week, I have to believe Philip Tanner gets a chance to be “the guy”. Without a running game, it puts an awful a lot of pressure on Tony Romo and an offensive line that is average at best. If you can afford to grab Tanner, you should.

[table “” not found /]
Posted in Fantasy Football | Leave a comment