Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

It has been confirmed Trevor Rosenthal will start the year in the bullpen. At the starting of training camp he had an outside shot for the fifth spot in the rotation. Now there are two pitchers vying for that spot in the rotation: Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller. From a fantasy perspective I’m hoping Miller gets that spot because he can miss a ton of bats and be extremely dominant. I bet Kelly starts the year in the rotation and Miller begins the year in Triple-A in attempt to delay his big league service time from starting. Rosenthal becomes a sneaky player for saves if something were to happen to Jason Motte.

Rafael Furcal will have surgery on his right elbow and is likely out for the year.

Derek Lowe was signed by the Rangers to add depth to the pitching staff. Other than AL-only or extremely deep leagues he should not be owned because he’ll likely be the long man in the rotation and may be spot started here and there. What worries me the most is his strikeout rate went from 16.5% in 2011 to only 8.6% in 2012.

It looks as though Johan Santana will make Spring Training debut next Thursday (3.14.13) against the Detroit Tigers. I love Santana as a late round flier because last year he showed glimpses of dominance. For the first three months of the 2012 season he was vintage Santana striking out 23.5% of batters with a 2.76 ERA.

Matt Garza will begin the 2013 season on the disabled list with a strained left lat he suffered during a throwing session this past Saturday (3.2.13). He is expected to miss the first month of the season. Before the injury I had Garza ranked as the 44^th starting pitcher. Now I’m going to have him in the high 60s or lower. I’ve always been a Garza guy because every year he was almost a lock to get 180+ strikeouts with a reasonable WHIP and ERA. However, there’s one big red flag. Since joining the Cubs in 2011 he started throwing his slider more than ever. In 2010 he used the slider 14.35% of the time, but since joining the Cubs he’s thrown it 24% of the time.  I’m always worried about pitchers who rely on the slider because of the extra stress it puts on a pitchers arm, which makes them more susceptible to injury.

I’ve heard a lot of chatter about Martin Perez for the past three years amongst talent evaluators as being an impact prospect who could be a number two starter. On Sunday (3.3.13) Perez broke his left forearm when he was struck by a line drive. Early news out of Rangers camp is he will not be ready to pitch in the Majors until early May. Perez has the raw stuff to be an easy number three starter, but he hasn’t found a way to harness that stuff to be an effective pitcher. In his brief stint in the Majors last year he was hit around a ton, resulting in a 5.45 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. His biggest problem is walking too many hitters and falling behind a lot in counts, which tells me the problem is not with this stuff, but with the mental side of pitching. He’s an AL-only play at best, but could be a deep sleeper for the 2014 season.

Carl Crawford’s availably for the season opener is in doubt due to nerve irritation in his surgically repaired left elbow. I literally have no idea how to approach Crawford this season. His upside is enormous if he returns to the Crawford of old. At Mock Draft Central he’s going 41^st outfielder (151^st overall). In 10-team leagues I have no problem with Crawford going 41^st because in order to win shallow leagues requires players to dramatically outperform their draft day value. In any league deeper than that, I’m staying away until I see him play on the field.

Cleveland Indians closer Chris Perez could be sidelined one month or more due to a strained shoulder. He should try to start throwing again in the next week so monitor this situation. If Perez were to miss the beginning of the season Vinnie Pestano, the better real life pitcher, would take over the closing duties.

Rafael Furcal is seeing Dr. James Andrews today about his bothersome right elbow. Furcal is trying to come back from a torn ligament he suffered last year. The Cardinals are saying it’s a long shot Furcal will be ready for the start of the season; this presumably makes Pete Kozma their starting shortstop. Kozma and Furcal are only NL-only plays at best; if Furcal is out for the entire season I highly doubt Kozma will be the starting shortstop the entire season. The Cardinals have a deep enough farm system they should be able to acquire a shortstop at the trade deadline. If Kozma were to play a full year he could be a 10/10 player with a .240 batting average.

David Ortiz is still having problems with his achilles tendon and may not be ready for opening day. More information should be available in the next few days so monitor this situation closely.

Pitching has become more dominant than ever. The manifestation of this dominance can be shown in the number of runs scored per game. During the last two years the average runs per game has not been this low since 1992. Below is a graph of the average runs per game since 1980. The green line represents the average (4.55 runs).

During our draft prep, we (fantasy owners) can often times have the blinders when on when it comes to the evaluation of and ranking of hitters. More specifically, we only focus on players who hit home runs, generate RBIs, and steal a lot of bases. I was not immune to this way of thinking as well. If you check my initial rankings in my fantasy guide you’ll notice I completely buried players how could score a lot of runs and propped up players who hit a lot of home runs. Quick guess, how many players scored 85+ runs last year? 48, that’s it. Last year it was 37! Let’s not jump the gun here. Maybe scoring runs isn’t as scarce as home runs. The table below shows the number of players who scored 85+ runs and 25+ home runs.

I starting playing fantasy baseball in the late 90s when scoring a lot of runs was common. However, with runs becoming more of a premium, players who score a lot of runs are just as scarce as home run boppers. Currently players who are projected to score a lot of runs and steal a lot of bases: Ben Revere, Denard Span, and Jon Jay have only have ADPs (at Mock Draft Central) of 190, 237 and 265 respectively. However, power only players are going higher in drafts. For example, Kendrys Morales, Ryan Ludwick and Dayan Viciedo have ADPs of 148, 158 and 183 respectively.

I recommend “reaching” for players (Revere, Span, or Jay) who are expected to bat lead off for a team the entire year than players whose primary upside is only power (Ludwick and Viciedo) because power will be easier to find later in drafts. For example, last year 79 players hit 20+ home runs compared to only 61 players scoring 80+ runs.

The key for scoring a lot of runs is a function of opportunity and skill. The higher a player hits in the lineup, the greater the likelihood he’ll score runs. Last year lead off hitters scored the most runs than any other position. Batting second and third were second and third respectively.Below are players you could draft late in the later rounds who could score 85+ runs.