Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Top Starters
1. Justin Verlander (DET) – Tue MIN, Sun @HOU
2. Adam Wainwright (STL) – Mon CIN, Sat @MIL
3. Stephen Strasburg (WSH) – Mon @ATL, Sat @PIT
4. Yu Darvish (TEX) – Tue CWS, Sun BOS
5. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Sat @SF
6. Cliff Lee (PHI) – Wed @CLE
7. Cole Hamels (PHI) – Sat MIA
8. Max Scherzer (DET) – Mon MIN, Sat @HOU
9. Jeff Samardzija (CHC) – Mon SD, Sat CIN
10. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – Mon PIT, Sat STL
11. Matt Harvey (NYM) – Mon @MIA, Sun @ATL
12. Mat Latos (CIN) – Mon @STL, Sun @CHC
13. Felix Hernandez (SEA) – Fri @TOR
14. Madison Bumgarner (SF) – Tue @ARI
15. Gio Gonzalez (WSH) – Tue @ATL, Sun @PIT
16. Matt Cain (SF) – Mon @ARI, Sun LAD
17. James Shields (KC) – Tue TB, Sun CWS
18. CC Sabathia (NYY) – Fri OAK
19. Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) – Tue HOU
20. Jordan Zimmermann (WSH) – Wed @ATL
21. Homer Bailey (CIN) – Wed @STL

Additional Information: Justin Verlander is not expected to miss his next start due to a blister on his thumb on his throwing hand. His average velocity was lower than usual (92.7 mph), but nothing dramatic as that was his average velocity in the first start of the year.

Backend Starters
22. Ian Kennedy (ARI) – Mon SF, Sun @SD
23. Doug Fister (DET) – Fri @HOU
24. Lance Lynn (STL) – Wed CIN
25. Ross Detwiler (WSH) – Fri @PIT
26. Kris Medlen (ATL) – Th WSH
27. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) – Sat @TOR
28. David Price (TB) – Sat @COL
29. R.A. Dickey (TOR) – Sat SEA
30. Clay Buchholz (BOS) – Wed @TOR
31. Roy Halladay (PHI) – Tue @CLE, Sun MIA
32. Shelby Miller (STL) – Fri @MIL
33. A.J. Burnett (PIT) – Fri WSH
34. Josh Johnson (TOR) – Th BOS
35. C.J. Wilson (LAA) – Wed @OAK
36. Matt Moore (TB) – Fri @COL
37. Chris Sale (CWS) – Wed @TEX
38. Jake Peavy (CWS) – Th @TEX
39. Jose Fernandez (MIA) – Mon NYM, Sat @PHI
40. Paul Maholm (ATL) – Wed WSH

Additional Information: In Roy Halladay’s last three starts he has a 1.71 ERA, 0.62 WHIP and a strikeout rate of 21 percent. Now he faces the free swinging Indians and the lowly Marlins. After seeing Jose Fernandez dominant start against the Mets in his debut I’m extremely curious to see the adjustments by both teams; this is the first team that will have seen Fernandez twice. C.J. Wilson has the largest walk rate of his career (12.8 percent) so a nice start in the O.co against the struggling A’s could be the catalyst for a resurgence. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about David Price and Matt Moore starting in Colorado, but if you have them, you’re starting them. The Rockies slash line against lefties this year is: .270/.358/.354 compared to .282/.339/.497 against righties.

Spot Starters
41. Kyle Lohse (MIL) – Fri STL
42. Anibal Sanchez (DET) – Wed MIN
43. Alexi Ogando (TEX) – Sat BOS
44. Andy Pettitte (NYY) – Mon HOU, Sun OAK
45. Wade Miley (ARI) – Fri @SD
46. Jeremy Hellickson (TB) – Wed @KC
47. Ervin Santana (KC) – Wed TB
48. Brandon Morrow (TOR) – Tue BOS, Sun SEA
49. Jason Hammel (BAL) – Tue @SEA, Sun @LAA
50. Patrick Corbin (ARI) – Sat @SD
51. Mike Minor (ATL) – Fri NYM
52. Jon Lester (BOS) – Tue @TOR, Sun @TEX
53. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) – Tue COL
54. Marco Estrada (MIL) – Tue PIT, Sun STL
55. Andrew Cashner (SD) – Wed @CHC
56. Derek Holland (TEX) – Fri BOS
57. Wade Davis (KC) – Mon CLE, Sat CWS
58. Ted Lilly (LAD) – Mon COL, Sun @SF
59. Brandon Maurer (SEA) – Tue BAL
60. Edwin Jackson (CHC) – Tue SD, Sun CIN
61. Trevor Cahill (ARI) – Tue SF
62. Tim Hudson (ATL) – Tue WSH, Sun NYM
63. J.A. Happ (TOR) – Fri SEA
64. Chris Tilllman (BAL) – Th @LAA
65. Alex Cobb (TB) – Tue @KC, Sun @COL
66. Tony Cingrani (CIN) – Sat @CHC
67. Jaime Garcia (STL) – Tue CIN, Sun @MIL

Additional Information: Kyle Lohse has a career high strikeout rate, 17.9 percent and a career low walk rate of 2.1 percent. After the 0.2 inning, 6 earned run outing, Brandon Maurer, in his last three starts against the Rangers twice and the Angels, has 1.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 17.1 percent strikeout percentage. I’ve watched all of his starts and he’s pitching with more confidence and poise and most importantly, is throwing more strikes. Jon Lester has first big test of the year with trips to Toronto and Texas. His fastball velocity is still in decline and has had a soft schedule to begin the year. I’m not the biggest J.A. Happ fan, but he’s pitching in Seattle against the Marlins of the American League.

Proceed With Caution
68. Kyle Kendrick (PHI) – Th MIA
69. Wei-Yin Chen (BAL) – Wed @SEA
70. Jeremy Guthrie (KC) – Th TB
71. Garrett Richards (LAA) – Tue @OAK, Sun BAL
72. Bartolo Colon (OAK) – Sat @NYY
73. Brandon McCarthy (ARI) – Wed SF
74. Ryan Vogelsong (SF) – Sat LAD
75. Wandy Rodriguez (PIT) – Mon @MIL, Sun WSH
76. Tim Lincecum (SF) – Wed @ARI
77. James McDonald (PIT) – Tue @MIL
78. Nicholas Tepesch (TEX) – Wed CWS
79. Justin Masterson (CLE) – Sat MIN
80. Ryan Dempster (BOS) – Th @TOR
81. Wily Peralta (MIL) – Th STL
82. Justin Grimm (TEX) – Th CWS
83. Tommy Milone (OAK) – Wed LAA
84. Jose Quintana (CWS) – Tue @TEX, Sun @KC
85. Juan Nicasio (COL) – Wed @LAD
86. Roberto Hernandez (TB) – Th @KC
87. Ricky Nolasco (MIA) – Fri @PHI
88. Jonathan Pettibone (PHI) – Fri MIA
89. Dan Haren (WSH) – Th @ATL

Additional Information: With Tim Lincecum’s last two starts against the Padres, now is the time to trade him because his value will never be higher than right now. I’m not jumping off the Roberto Hernandez bandwagon, but I do have one foot out the door. Despite having a 52 percent ground ball rate and the 39^th swing and miss percentage he hasn’t been able to translate them into on the field results. In his last two starts James McDonald has started incorporating his slider into his repertoire with mixed results. At times he can be really good, but in a moment’s notice he can lose his release point and subsequently the strike zone. With all the hubbub about Justin Masterson being an extreme ground ball pitcher, Nick Tepesch actually generates more ground balls (4 percentage points larger) and pitches for a better team. I’m not worried about Brandon McCarthy’s slow start. He currently has a .400 BABIP while inducing 17.5 PERCENT more ground balls. He was dropped last week in one of my 12-team NFBC Leagues and I’m going to put a sizeable bid for him.

Avoid
90. Josh Beckett (LAD) – Wed COL
91. Carlos Villanueva (CHC) – Fri CIN
92. Joe Saunders (SEA) – Mon BAL, Sun @TOR
93. Jake Westbrook (STL) – Th @MIL
94. Zach McAllister (CLE) – Tue PHI
95. Kevin Correia (MIN) – Sat @CLE
96. Brett Anderson (OAK) – Mon LAA, Sun @NYY
97. Gavin Floyd (CWS) – Fri @KC
98. Bud Norris (HOU) – Fri DET
99. Jarrod Parker (OAK) – Tue LAA
100. Dillon Gee (NYM) – Wed @MIA
101. Shaun Marcum (NYM) – Fri @ATL

Additional Information: Jarrod Parker doesn’t look like the same pitcher. Maybe he’s suffering from the Verducci Effect? I think he’s hurt, but either way, I wouldn’t start him unless I had to. There’s no doubt based on his numbers this far Carlos Villanueva should not be ranked this low, but over his career he has 4.26 ERA. The smart money says he’s going to regress.

Brandon Maurer has become an extremely effective ground ball machine his last three starts. During said time frame he’s generated a 49 percent ground ball rate as well as 1.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 17.3 percent strikeout rate. These starts didn’t come against lollipop teams, but instead the Rangers twice and the Angels. I’m a believer again. Since his ERA for the season is 5.61, you can get him for $1 in NFBC Leagues.

Carlos Peguero hit a home run in his first game in his first game since being called up from Triple-A. It could be an understatement to say the Mariners are in disarray based on their latest player evaluation decisions…sorry Brendan Ryan. In the last two years, in the minors and majors, he has 42 home runs in 792 plate appearances. If you’re looking for cheap power with a .220-240 batting average then Peguero is someone you should target if he gets full time playing time. With Michael Saunders on the DL I believe he gets everyday at-bats, but with Eric Wedge as the manager I wouldn’t be surprised if the continue to have the corpse of Raul Ibaenz playing the outfield.

Garrett Richards has really good stuff; his fastball and cutter sat at 95 mph and maxed out at 97 mph. Richards is a reliever masquerading as starter. His biggest problem is the lack of command of his secondary pitches, which is primarily the slider. Without command of the slider there’s no velocity separation in the cutter and fastball, which makes those pitches easier to hit. Speaking of the fastball, if he misses up in the zone it becomes flat and more hittable.

In bursts James McDonald looked really good and it’s no surprise because he finally started throwing his slider. Actually, he started throwing his slider in his previous start and had great results. The curveball was extremely sharp at times and worked really well with the fastball, but he lost command randomly again. McDonald is the type of player who will go 7 innings of shutout ball one start then go 4 innings and allow 7 earned runs.

Brandon Morrow’s strikeout rate has been in decline the past three years; 26 percent in 2011, 21.4 percent in 2012 and 15.3 percent this year. However, he looked like an extremely effective pitcher, varying speeds effectively with his fastball and utilizing his secondary pitches on both sides of the plate; the splitter to lefties and the slider to righties. He was cruising along until he almost head Nolan Reimold in the head; after that he last control of the strike zone and was eventually pulled from the game.

With a pitching matchup of Matt Harvey and Ted Lilly I easily thought the best pitching performance would come from Harvey, but I was more impressed with Lilly. Lilly’s stuff isn’t close to what it used to be earlier in his career, but his fastball, which he threw on both sides of the plate, sat 87-89 mph. He pitched inside to righties a lot with his fastball, which was really impressive. He threw breaking balls when the hitter expected a fastball and fastballs when batter’s were expecting breaking balls. Harvey threw the least amount of fastballs all year, throwing it only 50 percent of the time. Instead of the fastball, he incorporated the slider, changeup and curveball more. Of those pitches, the changeup flashed the most promise, showing good fade and arm action. Harvey didn’t get the desired outcome last night, but I saw it as an attempt to refine his secondary offerings, which will allow him to maintain his success.

Roy Halladay was primarily a two-pitch pitcher throwing his fastball and curveball 70 percent of the time. Despite the solid box score of six innings, eight strikeouts, two walks and one hit his control was loose for the majority of the game and was aided by the poor approach by the Pirates hitters. If owned Halladay I would sell high.

Brandon League blew his first save with the Dodgers last night, but the Carl Crawford, who dropped a catchable fly ball, was more responsible than League was. I’m not worried about League; he’s not a good reliever, but he should have a fairly long leash.

Stephen Strasburg is fine. He had one bad inning, the first, but was extremely good after that.