Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Brandon Morrow’s strikeout rate has been in decline the past three years; 26 percent in 2011, 21.4 percent in 2012 and 15.3 percent this year. However, he looked like an extremely effective pitcher, varying speeds effectively with his fastball and utilizing his secondary pitches on both sides of the plate; the splitter to lefties and the slider to righties. He was cruising along until he almost head Nolan Reimold in the head; after that he last control of the strike zone and was eventually pulled from the game.

With a pitching matchup of Matt Harvey and Ted Lilly I easily thought the best pitching performance would come from Harvey, but I was more impressed with Lilly. Lilly’s stuff isn’t close to what it used to be earlier in his career, but his fastball, which he threw on both sides of the plate, sat 87-89 mph. He pitched inside to righties a lot with his fastball, which was really impressive. He threw breaking balls when the hitter expected a fastball and fastballs when batter’s were expecting breaking balls. Harvey threw the least amount of fastballs all year, throwing it only 50 percent of the time. Instead of the fastball, he incorporated the slider, changeup and curveball more. Of those pitches, the changeup flashed the most promise, showing good fade and arm action. Harvey didn’t get the desired outcome last night, but I saw it as an attempt to refine his secondary offerings, which will allow him to maintain his success.

Roy Halladay was primarily a two-pitch pitcher throwing his fastball and curveball 70 percent of the time. Despite the solid box score of six innings, eight strikeouts, two walks and one hit his control was loose for the majority of the game and was aided by the poor approach by the Pirates hitters. If owned Halladay I would sell high.

Brandon League blew his first save with the Dodgers last night, but the Carl Crawford, who dropped a catchable fly ball, was more responsible than League was. I’m not worried about League; he’s not a good reliever, but he should have a fairly long leash.

Stephen Strasburg is fine. He had one bad inning, the first, but was extremely good after that.

Bartolo Colon has made four starts since returning from a 50 game suspension he received last year and he’s looks like the same he pitcher he did last year. The average velocity of his fastball, the walk rate, strikeout rate and batting average against are all eerily similar to last year. Last year he had a 3.43 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and a strikeout rate of 14%. A pitcher who pitches in pitcher friendly ballpark and who provides those numbers should be owned in all leagues.

Carlos Marmol blew another save, but he was put in a difficult position of having to pitch to Joey Votto with zero outs and runner on second base. He looked awful at times, but he pitched two innings the night before (26 pitches) and most importantly, got out of the inning without allowing an additional run. Kevin Gregg got the save, but I believe Marmol gets the next shot, assuming there’s not a save opportunity today; Marmol is probably not available today.

Tony Cingrani had a great game last night going seven innings, five hits, nine strikeouts and zero walks. He utilized his slider/curveball more, throwing it 18% of the time; in his last start he threw his fastball 91% of the time. If you own him you’re starting him, but his success will not last because relies too much on deception and the fastball too often to get outs consistently over a long period of time. If you’re in a dynasty league I would sell high right now.

J.J. Putz blew his third save of the year. If Putz were to falter in his next save chance Heath Bell would be the next pitcher to get the next save chance. Even though David Hernandez is the best pitcher in the bullpen, Bell makes more money and has “done it before,” which will most likely curry favor with an old school manager like Kirk Gibson.

R.A. Dickey had another “rough” (by his standards) outing allowing four runs, five walks, six hits over six innings. Prior to the game he was bothered by a sore neck and back; the injury started during the Kansas City start. His next start, on Sunday, at the Yankees, is a game I’m not starting him because this is a type of injury that could linger for an extended period of time without any resolution date.

David Price looked pretty good, but he still doesn’t look like the same pitcher we’re accustomed to seeing. His fastball velocity averaged 93 mph and topped out 94.7 mph. Last year his fastball averaged 95.4 mph. It’s too reductive to blame the decline in fastball velocity as the reason for his poor start, but the quality of his stuff doesn’t look as crisp. His swing and miss rate is 17 percent and last year it was 21 percent. One pitch isn’t accounting for the decrease, but all his pitches have a lower swing and miss rate compared to last year (table below). I’m not panicking, but I’m definitely worried if I’m a Price owner.

Even though Chris Tillman only allowed one hit in 6.2 innings he only looked good, but not dominant. His fastball sat 90-92 mph and his secondary offerings, particularly his changeup, looked very sharp. The command of the curveball was loose at times, but overall his command was really good. One of the reasons why his command was so good was he was direct with his windup.

Shelby Miller used his fastball 88-90% of the time. Miller has said he will throw what Yadir Molina calls, but I didn’t understand why he exclusively threw fastballs. Last year in the minors Miller fell in love with fastball and that lead his slow start in 2012.

Jonathan Pettibone made his Major League debut against the Pirates. He went 5.1 innings, striking out six and allowing six hits and no walks. He has a free and easy delivery that looks very clean. His fastball sat 90-91, but touched 93 mph once or twice. Of the secondary offerings (cutter, changeup and slider), the changeup, 84-86 mph, was the most effective pitch, getting the most swing and misses. Without a big fastball, Pettibone relied on command of his to get outs. Even though he had a fairly solid box score, at least half of the contact the Pirates made found barrels but didn’t find open space. In terms of fantasy comps, he’s a better Tommy Milone or A.J. Griffin.

Melky Cabrera was running with a very noticeable limp.

Matt Moore had another great start. If he has a bad outing you should try to trade for him.