Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Top Starters

1. Madison Bumgarner (SF) – Mon PHI, Sat ATL
2. Cliff Lee (PHI) – Mon @SF, Sat @ARI
3. Yu Darvish (TEX) – Sat @HOU
4. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Wed ARI
5. Justin Verlander (DET) – Sun CLE
6. Felix Hernandez (SEA) – Fri OAK
7. Stephen Strasburg (WSH) – Sat CHC
8. Adam Wainwright (STL) – Sat COL
9. Chris Sale (CWS) – Tue @NYM
10. A.J. Burnett (PIT) – Wed SEA
11. Max Scherzer (DET) – Sat CLE
12. Cole Hamels (PHI) – Th @ARI
13. Clay Buchholz (BOS) – Mon MIN, Sat TOR
14. David Price (TB) – Th TOR
15. Matt Moore (TB) – Wed TOR
16. Matt Harvey (NYM) – Sat PIT
17. Mat Latos (CIN) – Sat MIL
18. Jordan Zimmermann (WSH) – Tue DET
19. Lance Lynn (STL) – Tue @CHC
20. Jeff Samardzija (CHC) – Fri @WSH
21. James Shields (KC) – Sat NYY
22. Shelby Miller (STL) – Fri COL
23. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – Sat @CIN

Additional Information: Shelby Miller has nothing short of unbelievable to begin the year with a 1.96 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 38 strikeouts in 36.2 innings. I loved Miller in the preseason, targeting him in every draft, but his overreliance on the fastball, which he throws 75 percent of the time, has to eventually catch up to him. What pitcher has the second most strikeouts in the Majors? The answer may surprise you, but it’s A.J. Burnett. All the fantasy talk may be about Matt Harvey, but Burnett went 79 picks after him! Burnett’s contact rates, 72.3 percent, is the lowest it’s been since 2002. Along with a 33 percent strikeout rate I don’t see any major regression coming as supported by a 2.26 FIP and 2.63 xFIP.

Backend Starters

24. Kris Medlen (ATL) – Tue @CIN, Sun @SF
25. Matt Cain (SF) – Fri ATL
26. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) – Sat MIA
27. Alexi Ogando (TEX) – Fri @HOU
28. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) – Sat OAK
29. Homer Bailey (CIN) – Tue ATL
30. Anibal Sanchez (DET) – Tue @WSH
31. Paul Maholm (ATL) – Mon @CIN, Sat @SF
32. Gio Gonzalez (WSH) – Sun CHC
33. Jake Peavy (CWS) – Sun LAA
34. Jon Lester (BOS) – Fri TOR
35. C.J. Wilson (LAA) – Tue @HOU, Sun @CWS
36. Doug Fister (DET) – Fri CLE
37. CC Sabathia (NYY) – Th @COL
38. Ian Kennedy (ARI) – Fri PHI
39. Kyle Lohse (MIL) – Fri @CIN
40. Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) – Tue @COL, Sun @KC
41. R.A. Dickey (TOR) – Th @TB

Additional Information: Alexi Ogando pitches against the team with the highest strikeout rate in the Majors in the Houston Astros; he’s a must start in every format. Despite an impressive beginning to the season, Jon Lester hasn’t fared well in his last two starts (@ Toronto and Oakland), resulting in a 6.16 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Lester’s biggest problem has been the lack of command, especially of his cutter. In his first four starts he threw the cutter for strikes 76 percent of the time; the last two starts, only 55.6 percent of the time. Gio Gonzalez, thus far, has been one of the biggest fantasy disappoints to begin the year. He has the strikeout rate of his career (26 percent), but also has the highest walk rate (13 percent) since his rookie year in 2008. Gonzalez has been a little unlucky with the HR/FB rate (16.7 percent) and LOB rate (65.1 percent) and the statistical expectation is both numbers will regress, but let’s dig deeper. The quality of his stuff is the same as last year and his batting average against is only
up 3.5 percent.

Spot Starters

42. Jeremy Hellickson (TB) – Mon TOR, Sat SD
43. Andrew Cashner (SD) – Mon MIA, Sun @TB
44. Ricky Nolasco (MIA) – Wed @SD
45. Andy Pettitte (NYY) – Sat @KC
46. Mike Minor (ATL) – Wed @CIN
47. Trevor Cahill (ARI) – Mon @LAD, Sat PHI
48. Ryan Dempster (BOS) – Tue MIN, Sun TOR
49. Tony Cingrani (CIN) – Fri MIL
50. Jeremy Guthrie (KC) – Th @BAL
51. Ervin Santana (KC) – Wed @BAL
52. Brandon McCarthy (ARI) – Tue @LAD, Sun PHI
53. Phil Hughes (NYY) – Fri @KC
54. Bartolo Colon (OAK) – Th @CLE
55. Dan Straily (OAK) – Fri @SEA
56. Edwin Jackson (CHC) – Sat @WSH
57. Jaime Garcia (STL) – Sun COL
58. Brandon Morrow (TOR) – Fri @BOS
59. Jose Fernandez (MIA) – Fri @LAD
60. Tim Lincecum (SF) – Tue PHI, Sun ATL
61. Jarrod Parker (OAK) – Mon @CLE, Sat @SEA

Additional Information: Based on his last start, I haven’t given up on Jarrod Parker. If it wasn’t for a defensive miscue he only would’ve given up one run instead of three. Most importantly, his changeup looked the best I’ve seen all season. I’m still on the fence about his ranking because his command was too loose for my liking, but he gets two starts this week and one of them is at Seattle; too good to pass up. As I said inyesterday’s free agents to pickup column I’m all-in on Brandon McCarthy. After his first two brilliant starts Jose Fernandez has a 7.62 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Fernandez gets the hapless Dodger lineup and is primed for rebound. However, he’s only averaged 80 pitches in the last three starts. Maybe he was pulled due to ineffectiveness and/or pitch count, but I bet it’s unlikely he’ll earn a win.

Proceed With Caution

62. Wade Davis (KC) – Fri NYY
63. Ryan Vogelsong (SF) – Th ATL
64. Nicholas Tepesch (TEX) – Mon @CHC, Sun @HOU
65. Derek Holland (TEX) – Wed @MIL
66. Marco Estrada (MIL) – Sun @CIN
67. Wade Miley (ARI) – Wed @LAD
68. Roberto Hernandez (TB) – Tue TOR, Sun SD
69. Ross Detwiler (WSH) – Fri CHC
70. Chris Tilllman (BAL) – Wed KC
71. Patrick Corbin (ARI) – Th PHI
72. Brandon Maurer (SEA) – Tue @PIT
73. Tim Hudson (ATL) – Fri @SF
74. Kevin Slowey (MIA) – Sat @LAD
75. Kyle Kendrick (PHI) – Tue @SF, Sun @ARI
76. Alex Cobb (TB) – Fri SD
77. Tommy Milone (OAK) – Tue @CLE, Sun @SEA
78. Roy Halladay (PHI) – Fri @ARI
79. Wei-Yin Chen (BAL) – Tue KC, Sun @MIN
80. Wily Peralta (MIL) – Wed TEX
81. James McDonald (PIT) – Tue SEA, Sun @NYM
82. J.A. Happ (TOR) – Tue @TB, Sun @BOS
83. Dan Haren (WSH) – Wed DET
84. Ricky Romero (TOR) – Wed @TB

Additional Information: Despite the recent great start at Atlanta, I’m not buying Dan Haren at Detroit. I’m not a Wade Miley fan, but it’s getting to the point where I’ll start almost any pitcher against the Dodgers Triple-A lineup with Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and ground ball hitting Matt Kemp. I loved Wily Peralta in the preseason, but he’s not striking anyone out (11.8 percent) and walking too many batters (9.2 percent) to be an effective fantasy option. Through the first three innings, last night, it was vintage Ricky Romero. He had good sink with the fastball, the changeup had good depth and he changed speeds effectively. In the fourth inning he started overthrowing pitches and subsequently lost command of the strike zone. A possible cause for this was a blister or some other type of impingement with his middle finger (on his pitching hand) because he kept rubbing it throughout the entire inning. It’s still unclear if he’ll be ready for his start at Tampa Bay so proceed with caution.

Avoid

85. Justin Grimm (TEX) – Tue @MIL
86. Jason Hammel (BAL) – Sat @MIN
87. Jason Vargas (LAA) – Th @HOU
88. Josh Beckett (LAD) – Mon ARI, Sun MIA
89. A.J. Griffin (OAK) – Wed @CLE
90. Jonathan Pettibone (PHI) – Wed @SF
91. Justin Masterson (CLE) – Wed OAK
92. Chris Capuano (LAD) – Tue ARI
93. Bud Norris (HOU) – Th LAA
94. Jon Niese (NYM) – Fri PIT
95. Wandy Rodriguez (PIT) – Fri @NYM
96. Eric Stults (SD) – Tue MIA
97. Jake Westbrook (STL) – Wed @CHC
98. Alex Sanabia (MIA) – Tue @SD
99. Julio Teheran (ATL) – Th @SF
100. Scott Feldman (CHC) – Mon TEX, Sun @WSH
101. Carlos Villanueva (CHC) – Wed STL

Additional Information: Jake Westbrook has a 1.07 ERA, but also a 1.40 WHIP and 12.7 percent strikeout rate. Regression is coming quicker than hipsters to an off the grid event in the lower Haight. Justim Grimm has a 23.5 percent strikeout rate in four starts this year. Grimm’s four starts this year have been against Seattle twice, the Twins and the White Sox, not exactly the finest competition baseball has to offer. Grimm doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but relies on the command of the fastball to setup his plus curveball. Eventually the strikeout rate will regress to a level that makes him non-startable mixed leagues.

Every NFBC owner scours the waiver wire every weekend before making potential bids with their FAAB budget. Below are players, broken down by statistical need, you could add to your fantasy roster.The format of the player capsules are now: name, position, team, percent owned (in 12-team NFBC Leagues).

Home Runs

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies, 58%: Odds are you’ve already read a lot about his call up, but my take on him is he’s going to go for a lot of FAAB dollars on Sunday. Assuming he plays a full year he’ll probably hit 20 home runs with a .260-.270 batting average. I’m going to bid in the $20-50 range for him, but I’m sure he’ll go for at least double that. If I were able to own him, I would stream him, playing him in games where he’s at home and benching him when he’s on the road. I would try to him with another corner infielder with dramatic home-road splits because that would enhance the overall offensive output of both players. Examples include: Brandon Moss, Yonder Alonso and Mitch Moreland. For more information about this strategy checkout my previous article about the two players for one position strategy.

Matt Joyce, OF, Rays, 60%: What a difference a week can have. For the first three weeks of the season Joyce had a slash line of, in 54 at-bats, .185/.228/.315 with two home runs, three walks and 13 strikeouts. In his last five games he has four home runs and has a slash line of .318/.400/.864, giving him a total of six home runs this season. With a huge platoon split against lefties, Joyce primarily plays against right handed batters, but he can provide solid 16-22 home runs.

Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Twins, 40%: As long as Arcia is in the big leagues, he’
going to play. In a limited 44 plate appearances Arcia already has two home runs, but carries a .220 batting average and 22 percent strikeout rate. He has the tools to be an extremely productive fantasy (and real life) player, but I’m always hesitant to buy-in on prospects who only played in Double-A before being promoted to the Majors. With power being extreme scarce, Arica is someone worth picking up if you’re willing to have a batting average in the .230 range.

Stolen Bases

Rajai Davis, OF, Blue Jays, 85% : For the past four seasons Davis has averaged 43 stolen bases and is always overlooked by the fantasy community during drafts because the lack of a starting job to begin the season. However, it seems as though he always finds his way to at-bats. This is evidenced by the average of 421 at-bats in that same time frame. With the struggles of Adam Lind and Colby Rasmus, Davis could generate even more playing time than he’s currently getting; he’s received two or more at-bats in 52 percent of the Blue Jays’ games so far.

Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres, 73%: Maybin began the year very slowly, hitting .091/.167/.121 in 37 plate appearances. A few days ago he was put on the DL with a sore right wrist, whichcould have contributed to his poor start. He’s the perfect buy low candidate because he’s two years removed from a 40 steal season and averages 8-9 home runs a year and is only 26 years old. It looks as though he’s not recovering as quickly as the Padres hoped and he could be on the DL until the middle of May. Monitor his recovery status before putting in a bid on him.

Speculative Saves

Sean Doolittle, RP, Athletics, 9% : I’ll fully admit this is gut pick, but if you’re looking to handcuff Grant Balfour then Doolittle is the pitcher you want on your roster. Ryan Cook got the saves last year when Balfour stumbled, but those save opportunities occurred when Doolittle was pitching in the minors. During the last two months of the 2012 season and during this season Doolittle has pitched the highest leveraged innings of every game he appeared in and with good reason. Doolittle has pitched 54.2 innings in his career and has 66 strikeouts, 14 walks and only has allowed four home runs.

Frank Francisco, RP, Mets, 9%: Every Bobby Parnell owner should add Francisco now in order to handcuff the Mets saves. Francisco has only pitched two innings in High-A, but could back with the Mets in the next week or two. Terry Collins hasn’t fully committed to Parnell when asked about Francisco’s return from the DL. Parnell is the better reliever so I don’t expect him to lose the job, but Collins’ in-game decisions have me scratching my head more times than not so it’s better to grab Francisco while he’s cheap before his value could increase exponentially.

Starting Pitching

Brandon McCarthy, SP, Diamondbacks, 54% : I have no idea why fantasy owners are jumping ship so quickly on McCarthy. In the two seasons (in Oakland) prior to 2013 he has a 3.29 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 17 percent strikeout rate. Two weeks ago he was dropped in my 15-team NFBC league and I picked up for $32; no one else put a bid on him, which means I could’ve acquired him for $1. That’s insane! McCarthy’s .393 BABIP and 58 percent LOB rate are bound to regress to the mean. However, there is a reason why his BABIP is so high and I believe it’s the location of his sinker, one of his two primary pitches. Like with most sinker ballers, they make their living on the bottom half of the strike zone. Checkout where his sinkers have been thrown this season (image below); it looks like he’s been pitching up the zone a lot. The quality of his stuff remains the same, which is great because his struggles are primarily mechanical. Go get him!

Chris Tillman, SP, Orioles, 61% his BABIP is so high and I believe it’s the location of his sinker, one of his two primary pitches. Like with most sinker ballers, they make their living on the bottom half of the strike zone. Checkout where his sinkers have been thrown this season (image below); it looks like he’s been pitching up the zone a lot. The quality of his stuff remains the same, which is great because his struggles are primarily mechanical. Go get him!: Tillman’s brilliant performance Thursday night lowered his baseball card stats to a 3.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Entering the preseason I had my doubts as to whether or not his 2012 performance was legit because most of great outings came against sub-.500 ball clubs. For more detailed data about Tillman checkout my Fantasy Guide. However, when talent evaluators such as Keith Law highly praise him it’s hard to overlook him. His biggest problem this season has been the walks; he currently has a walk rate of 10.3 percent. If his strikeout rate was higher (>22 percent) he could get away with walking that many batters, but with only a walk rate of 19 percent he’ll susceptible to bad outings and/or the blowup inning. His next starts are extremely favorable: Royals, Padres and Yankees so there’s better time than ever stream him.

Dan Straily, SP, Athletics, 61% : Straily was the minor league darling last year, leading the minor leagues in strikeouts (190). The stereotypical pitcher I think of when I think of a strikeout pitcher is someone like Nolan Ryan with an 80 grade fastball with electric stuff. That’s not Straily. His stuff isn’t overpowering but he uses plus to plus-plus command of all his four pitches to generate outs. With Brett Anderson on the DL, Straily has a full time job. His biggest problem in his brief Major League career has been home runs; he’s already allowed 13 home runs in 50.2 innings.

Ricky Romero, SP, Blue Jays, 6%: With Josh Johnson heading over to the DL, Romero has been called upon to start tonight. Like most of the public, I haven’t seen him pitch since Spring Training because he was sent to High-A to work on his mechanics. I was big believer in Romero at beginning of the 2012 season and got burned. However, he’s only two years removed from a 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a 19.4 strikeout rate. With Johnson on the DL Romero will get an extended look by the Blue Jays, which could open the door to a consistent rotation spot. His next matchups are extremely favorable: @ Tampa Bay, San Francisco and Tampa Bay again.

Trevor Bauer was effectively wild throughout the entire game. This is evidenced by the five strikeouts, one hit, one earned run and six walks in five innings. He couldn’t command his fastball the entire game, missing up in the zone (image below) on almost every occasion. However, he was able to control his secondary pitches (cutter, curveball and slider) and throw them for strikes. The quality of stuff is undeniable, but will he ever harness all nine of his pitches to reach his ceiling? Maybe, but he has a long way to go in terms of repeating his delivery and mechanics. In dynasty leagues he’s a must own and is dropable in one year leagues.

Lance Lynn won his tenth consecutive decision by only allowing one run, two walks, five hits, five strikeouts in seven innings. For the year Lynn has a 2.75 ERA, 1.11 WHIP with 26.4 percent strikeout rate and 10.1 percent walk rate. Hot starts are nothing new to Lynn as he had 2.54 ERA 1.07 WHIP through the first two months of the 2012 season. If you owned him, like I did last year, he fell apart in June and July. Conditioning could have played a role in his decline, which is why he showed a lot of #want and lost nearly 40 pounds in the offseason. Enough superficial analysis. He’s throwing the same percentage of strikes this season as he did for the first two months of 2012, but he’s getting more swing and misses and less balls are in play this year (table below). If you own him, keep him. Do not sell high unless you’re getting a top 15 pitcher because I don’t think he’s going to wear down.

I was all-in on Eric Hosmer in the preseason, drafting him in all my fantasy leagues, but I’m extremely scared. In his rookie season 45.7 percent of his hits were ground balls; last year 51.5 percent; this year he’s hitting 55.2 percent ground balls. It’s still a small sample, but I’m standing pat because he’s batting fourth in the lineup and could rebound with a hot streak in about 30 at-bats.