Top Starters
1. Madison Bumgarner (SF) – Mon PHI, Sat ATL
2. Cliff Lee (PHI) – Mon @SF, Sat @ARI
3. Yu Darvish (TEX) – Sat @HOU
4. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Wed ARI
5. Justin Verlander (DET) – Sun CLE
6. Felix Hernandez (SEA) – Fri OAK
7. Stephen Strasburg (WSH) – Sat CHC
8. Adam Wainwright (STL) – Sat COL
9. Chris Sale (CWS) – Tue @NYM
10. A.J. Burnett (PIT) – Wed SEA
11. Max Scherzer (DET) – Sat CLE
12. Cole Hamels (PHI) – Th @ARI
13. Clay Buchholz (BOS) – Mon MIN, Sat TOR
14. David Price (TB) – Th TOR
15. Matt Moore (TB) – Wed TOR
16. Matt Harvey (NYM) – Sat PIT
17. Mat Latos (CIN) – Sat MIL
18. Jordan Zimmermann (WSH) – Tue DET
19. Lance Lynn (STL) – Tue @CHC
20. Jeff Samardzija (CHC) – Fri @WSH
21. James Shields (KC) – Sat NYY
22. Shelby Miller (STL) – Fri COL
23. Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – Sat @CIN
Additional Information: Shelby Miller has nothing short of unbelievable to begin the year with a 1.96 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 38 strikeouts in 36.2 innings. I loved Miller in the preseason, targeting him in every draft, but his overreliance on the fastball, which he throws 75 percent of the time, has to eventually catch up to him. What pitcher has the second most strikeouts in the Majors? The answer may surprise you, but it’s A.J. Burnett. All the fantasy talk may be about Matt Harvey, but Burnett went 79 picks after him! Burnett’s contact rates, 72.3 percent, is the lowest it’s been since 2002. Along with a 33 percent strikeout rate I don’t see any major regression coming as supported by a 2.26 FIP and 2.63 xFIP.
Backend Starters
24. Kris Medlen (ATL) – Tue @CIN, Sun @SF
25. Matt Cain (SF) – Fri ATL
26. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) – Sat MIA
27. Alexi Ogando (TEX) – Fri @HOU
28. Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA) – Sat OAK
29. Homer Bailey (CIN) – Tue ATL
30. Anibal Sanchez (DET) – Tue @WSH
31. Paul Maholm (ATL) – Mon @CIN, Sat @SF
32. Gio Gonzalez (WSH) – Sun CHC
33. Jake Peavy (CWS) – Sun LAA
34. Jon Lester (BOS) – Fri TOR
35. C.J. Wilson (LAA) – Tue @HOU, Sun @CWS
36. Doug Fister (DET) – Fri CLE
37. CC Sabathia (NYY) – Th @COL
38. Ian Kennedy (ARI) – Fri PHI
39. Kyle Lohse (MIL) – Fri @CIN
40. Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) – Tue @COL, Sun @KC
41. R.A. Dickey (TOR) – Th @TB
Additional Information: Alexi Ogando pitches against the team with the highest strikeout rate in the Majors in the Houston Astros; he’s a must start in every format. Despite an impressive beginning to the season, Jon Lester hasn’t fared well in his last two starts (@ Toronto and Oakland), resulting in a 6.16 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Lester’s biggest problem has been the lack of command, especially of his cutter. In his first four starts he threw the cutter for strikes 76 percent of the time; the last two starts, only 55.6 percent of the time. Gio Gonzalez, thus far, has been one of the biggest fantasy disappoints to begin the year. He has the strikeout rate of his career (26 percent), but also has the highest walk rate (13 percent) since his rookie year in 2008. Gonzalez has been a little unlucky with the HR/FB rate (16.7 percent) and LOB rate (65.1 percent) and the statistical expectation is both numbers will regress, but let’s dig deeper. The quality of his stuff is the same as last year and his batting average against is only
up 3.5 percent.
Spot Starters
42. Jeremy Hellickson (TB) – Mon TOR, Sat SD
43. Andrew Cashner (SD) – Mon MIA, Sun @TB
44. Ricky Nolasco (MIA) – Wed @SD
45. Andy Pettitte (NYY) – Sat @KC
46. Mike Minor (ATL) – Wed @CIN
47. Trevor Cahill (ARI) – Mon @LAD, Sat PHI
48. Ryan Dempster (BOS) – Tue MIN, Sun TOR
49. Tony Cingrani (CIN) – Fri MIL
50. Jeremy Guthrie (KC) – Th @BAL
51. Ervin Santana (KC) – Wed @BAL
52. Brandon McCarthy (ARI) – Tue @LAD, Sun PHI
53. Phil Hughes (NYY) – Fri @KC
54. Bartolo Colon (OAK) – Th @CLE
55. Dan Straily (OAK) – Fri @SEA
56. Edwin Jackson (CHC) – Sat @WSH
57. Jaime Garcia (STL) – Sun COL
58. Brandon Morrow (TOR) – Fri @BOS
59. Jose Fernandez (MIA) – Fri @LAD
60. Tim Lincecum (SF) – Tue PHI, Sun ATL
61. Jarrod Parker (OAK) – Mon @CLE, Sat @SEA
Additional Information: Based on his last start, I haven’t given up on Jarrod Parker. If it wasn’t for a defensive miscue he only would’ve given up one run instead of three. Most importantly, his changeup looked the best I’ve seen all season. I’m still on the fence about his ranking because his command was too loose for my liking, but he gets two starts this week and one of them is at Seattle; too good to pass up. As I said inyesterday’s free agents to pickup column I’m all-in on Brandon McCarthy. After his first two brilliant starts Jose Fernandez has a 7.62 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Fernandez gets the hapless Dodger lineup and is primed for rebound. However, he’s only averaged 80 pitches in the last three starts. Maybe he was pulled due to ineffectiveness and/or pitch count, but I bet it’s unlikely he’ll earn a win.
Proceed With Caution
62. Wade Davis (KC) – Fri NYY
63. Ryan Vogelsong (SF) – Th ATL
64. Nicholas Tepesch (TEX) – Mon @CHC, Sun @HOU
65. Derek Holland (TEX) – Wed @MIL
66. Marco Estrada (MIL) – Sun @CIN
67. Wade Miley (ARI) – Wed @LAD
68. Roberto Hernandez (TB) – Tue TOR, Sun SD
69. Ross Detwiler (WSH) – Fri CHC
70. Chris Tilllman (BAL) – Wed KC
71. Patrick Corbin (ARI) – Th PHI
72. Brandon Maurer (SEA) – Tue @PIT
73. Tim Hudson (ATL) – Fri @SF
74. Kevin Slowey (MIA) – Sat @LAD
75. Kyle Kendrick (PHI) – Tue @SF, Sun @ARI
76. Alex Cobb (TB) – Fri SD
77. Tommy Milone (OAK) – Tue @CLE, Sun @SEA
78. Roy Halladay (PHI) – Fri @ARI
79. Wei-Yin Chen (BAL) – Tue KC, Sun @MIN
80. Wily Peralta (MIL) – Wed TEX
81. James McDonald (PIT) – Tue SEA, Sun @NYM
82. J.A. Happ (TOR) – Tue @TB, Sun @BOS
83. Dan Haren (WSH) – Wed DET
84. Ricky Romero (TOR) – Wed @TB
Additional Information: Despite the recent great start at Atlanta, I’m not buying Dan Haren at Detroit. I’m not a Wade Miley fan, but it’s getting to the point where I’ll start almost any pitcher against the Dodgers Triple-A lineup with Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and ground ball hitting Matt Kemp. I loved Wily Peralta in the preseason, but he’s not striking anyone out (11.8 percent) and walking too many batters (9.2 percent) to be an effective fantasy option. Through the first three innings, last night, it was vintage Ricky Romero. He had good sink with the fastball, the changeup had good depth and he changed speeds effectively. In the fourth inning he started overthrowing pitches and subsequently lost command of the strike zone. A possible cause for this was a blister or some other type of impingement with his middle finger (on his pitching hand) because he kept rubbing it throughout the entire inning. It’s still unclear if he’ll be ready for his start at Tampa Bay so proceed with caution.
Avoid
85. Justin Grimm (TEX) – Tue @MIL
86. Jason Hammel (BAL) – Sat @MIN
87. Jason Vargas (LAA) – Th @HOU
88. Josh Beckett (LAD) – Mon ARI, Sun MIA
89. A.J. Griffin (OAK) – Wed @CLE
90. Jonathan Pettibone (PHI) – Wed @SF
91. Justin Masterson (CLE) – Wed OAK
92. Chris Capuano (LAD) – Tue ARI
93. Bud Norris (HOU) – Th LAA
94. Jon Niese (NYM) – Fri PIT
95. Wandy Rodriguez (PIT) – Fri @NYM
96. Eric Stults (SD) – Tue MIA
97. Jake Westbrook (STL) – Wed @CHC
98. Alex Sanabia (MIA) – Tue @SD
99. Julio Teheran (ATL) – Th @SF
100. Scott Feldman (CHC) – Mon TEX, Sun @WSH
101. Carlos Villanueva (CHC) – Wed STL
Additional Information: Jake Westbrook has a 1.07 ERA, but also a 1.40 WHIP and 12.7 percent strikeout rate. Regression is coming quicker than hipsters to an off the grid event in the lower Haight. Justim Grimm has a 23.5 percent strikeout rate in four starts this year. Grimm’s four starts this year have been against Seattle twice, the Twins and the White Sox, not exactly the finest competition baseball has to offer. Grimm doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but relies on the command of the fastball to setup his plus curveball. Eventually the strikeout rate will regress to a level that makes him non-startable mixed leagues.
