Wilin Rosario’s 2014 Fantasy Baseball Projection

Rosario was only limited to 121 games last year because he missed three weeks with a calf strain in September. If you combine the injury concerns with playing the catcher position and the fact he’s a below average defender begs the question, “how much longer will (or can) he stay at the catcher position?” Since he only played four games at first base last year suggest the Rockies are still going to play him primarily at catcher. From a fantasy perspective the ideal situation is his workload mirrors what the Indians are doing with the Carlos Santana, spending half of the time at first base/DH.

It’s a force of habit to review the home-road splits of any Rockies player before I start their evaluation. The table below shows his home-road splits the past two seasons. It looks as though a lot of his numbers are benefiting from playing in Coors.

Splits AVG OPS BABIP K% BB% HR/FB%
Home .293 .884 .313 19.5% 6.6% 21.2%
Away .268 .755 .325 27.3% 3.4% 19.1%

Other than his dramatic home-road splits, the statistic that jumped out to me was the decrease in HR/FB rate. For example, the HR/FB rate decreased eight percentage points, but there is hope for optimism. First, his road HR/FB rates were identical the past two years (19 percent). Last year his HR/FB rate at home was only 14.5 percent and in 2012 it was 28 percent. I believe he hits for more power at home next year, which means he should hit 25-plus home runs in 2014. It looks as though his .292 batting average was fueled by a .344 BABIP. You may be thinking the BABIP was derived from his home ballpark, but in fact it was inflated while on the road as he had a .360 BABIP. I bet his batting average regresses back to the .270ish range rather than the 290s. Also, do not overlook his stolen base potential as he has stolen four the past two seasons.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

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