Fantasy owners drafting first overall in 2013 are going to be tasked with answering a very important question, who to take with that first pick? Most industry pundits would agree the three most qualified players are Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, and Miguel Cabrera. If you think Matt Kemp deserves to be in the conversation then you’re team is going to lose, but hopefully my analysis pulls the curtain over your eyes. Each player has their own pros and cons as to why they deserve the selection, but like with closers in Major League Bullpens, there can be only one. The original player profiles I wrote can be found at BaseballAnalytics.org here and here.

Mike Trout

Pros: five tool player; biggest upside; lineup top heavy; hasn’t reached physical peak; didn’t play a full season in 2012; makeup; Josh Hamilton; outfield depth

Cons: only has done it once; lowest floor; plays in a pitcher friendly park; lack of RBI opportunities; batting average may have been BABIP driven, sophomore slump; AL West ballparks

Analysis: Is there anything Trout can’t do? He was so good he received all 28 first-place votes for Rookie of the Year, becoming only the eighth player in history to accomplish that feat. Should he have won the MVP? Yes, but that’s another matter all in itself. One strike against Trout as the first pick is his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was extremely high and unsustainable. But is it? Trout is an elite runner, which is conducive for higher BABIPs because he can beat out a lot of infield hits with his speed. Can he repeat 30 home runs again? The Angels ballpark is the sixth worst stadium in baseball for home run power and his HR/FB rate of 21.6% should regress (a normal HR/FB rate is 9.5%). However, according to Baseball America’s 2012 Prospect Handbook the scouting grade they gave his power potential was in the high 20s and low 30s (65 grade for the scouts out there). Supposing Trout only hits 15-20 home runs, he’ll still provide elite stolen base production, allowing fantasy owners more flexibility during their drafts.

Ryan Braun

Pros: Miller Park, NL Central; power to all fields; durable; consistent; outfield depth

Cons: limited 30+ steal track record; Rickie Weeks; limited ceiling; Astros move to AL; inflated HR/FB rate

Analysis: Last year I stayed away from Braun in all my drafts because of an irrational fear he would regress due to the loss of Prince Fielder and the off the field incident involving a 50 game suspension. I believed he would be walked more and see fewer pitches to hit because he didn’t have protection in the lineup. I was 100% wrong because he put up better numbers than he did during his MVP season in 2011. One of the strikes against him is strikeout rate. Last year his strikeout rate (18.9%) was the highest it’s been since 2008. If this trend continues his batting average ceiling could be in the low .300s instead of the .320s. Another strike is he just turned 29, which may impact on his stolen base potential. Instead of grabbing 30 bags, he may only steal bases in the low 20s. In order to justify the first overall pick will require him to steal 25+ bases again. Braun had a career high in home runs with 41, but that coincided with a career high in his HR/FB rate (22.8%). His average HR/FB rate for his career is 18.8%, so if he regresses back to his average he’ll be a 30-34 home player instead of a 41 homer player.

Miguel Cabrera

Pros: durable; consistent; Victor Martinez; AL Central

Cons: four category player; makeup; third base eligibility; defense; inflated HR/FB rate

Analysis: Cabrera’s Triple Crown resulted in him receiving the MVP award. He is the model of consistency, putting up great numbers in four out of five traditional scoring categories every year since the age of 21. The key word in that statement was four. He’s a great player, but he only helps fantasy owners in four categories. There were more stolen bases attempts in 2011 than any time in the previous 12 years. In 2012 there was only a slight decrease (3.8%) in steals compared to 2011. Stolen bases are up. Players who don’t provide steals have to provide elite production in the other four categories in order to be a first round pick, which Cabrera can do. However, drafting Cabrera changes the way fantasy owners build their teams during the draft. For example, suppose it’s the middle of the fifth round and the Miguel Cabrera owner is debating between grabbing Michael Bourn, Pablo Sandoval or Billy Butler. Maybe the owner passes on Bourn. Eventually the owner will have to take speed player, who will most likely contribute to only one or two categories, such as Ben Revere, Juan Pierre, Darin Mastroianni at the end of drafts to make up for not taking a Ryan Braun or a Mike Trout. Another strike is third base pretty deep for the first time in a while. I currently have Will Middlebrooks, who has the potential to hit 30 home runs and 100 RBI, as my 17^th rated third baseman. Cabrera had a career best with 44 home runs last year. The power surge was aided by career high in his HR/FB rate (23%). His career average HR/FB rate is 18.9% so expecting another 40+ home runs season is a stretch. What helps Cabrera is the return of Victor Martinez, who missed the entire 2012 season with a torn ACL. Martinez is replacing the free swinging machine known as Delmon Young in the lineup so there could Cabrera could score more runs.

Verdict
The decision ultimately came down between Braun and Trout. Braun is safer, but has the lower ceiling. Trout has the higher ceiling, but has only played at high level once. So who is my number pick? Trout is my man because of the five tools and his makeup. I define makeup as does a player have the desire to maximize all of his baseball tools. Now, that’s not to say Cabrera and Braun have bad makeup, but when I see Trout play it’s obvious he’s having a blast playing baseball. Trout has the baseball IQ, bat control, plate discipline and overall tools that will allow him to maintain and possibly surpass what he did last year.