Melky Cabrera’s 2015 Fantasy Value

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

In last year’s fantasy guide I was huge believer in Melky Cabrera. In 2013 I wrote that his poor season was due to playing the majority of the season with a tumor on his spine rather than no longer being on PEDs. I thought he would steal more than six bases, but based on where you drafted him you made a tremendous profit.

The question is can he repeat his 2014 season? I was a big fan of him last year and I see no reason why he shouldn’t be able to do it again. Since 2011 (in 2,200 PAs) he has a .309/.351/.458 slash line with 48 home runs and 41 stolen bases. He’s leaving Toronto’s home ballpark, which hurts his value slightly, but you could argue he’s going to better lineup (it all depends on how much you believe in Jose Abreu and if Adam Eaton takes the next step). If Cabrera plays in 140 games he could easily have 110 runs scored to go along with a .295-plus batting average, 12-plus home runs and 5-plus stolen bases.

Cabrera is not a good defender. His range is below average and he takes plays off in the field, but he’s a really good hitter. He can hit righties and lefties at the same clip. He probably won’t steal more than 7-8 bases because his stolen base success rate suggests he’s better off not running especially when Abreu is at the plate he could launch a home run. The cloud of PED use will probably still make him a draft bargain but it won’t be as much as last year.

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