Is It Time To Buy Francisco Liriano?

In my starting pitcher rankings for week 15 I rated Francisco Liriano 63rd overall even though he’s pitched great this season and was pitching in a very pitcher friendly ballpark. On Wednesday (July 10) I saw Liriano dominate the A’s for seven innings.

For the year he has a 2.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with nine wins in 76.2 innings (12 starts). So odds are if you own Liriano you’re incredibly happy with the results you’ve received thus far. Among starting pitchers with at least seven starts Liriano ranks tenth overall in strikeout rate (25.3 percent) and second in swing and miss rate (32.4 percent). Now his 8.9 percent walk rate may look high, but with a career 10.5 percent walk (prior to 2013) it looks as though he’s made strides to improve his command; his strike rate is the second highest it’s been in his career.

However, the question every fantasy owner has is will his performance continue? No, but I don’t believe he’s going to regress back to his career statistical levels. With a HR/FB rate of 5.6 percent, he’s going to eventually allow more home runs because I do not believe he’s solved the problem of not allowing home runs. He’s won 75 percent of starts, which isn’t going to continue. He’s on pace for 18 wins, which is high. If I had to take the over-under on 13.5 wins I would take the over … just barely. In his 12 starts this season only four of them were against teams with a record better than .500, so he’s faced a soft schedule to begin the year. What’s most important is will he able to stay healthy the rest of the season. In six professional years in baseball (Big Leagues and Minors) he’s only averaged 156 innings a year and has only qualified for the ERA title once in his career.

So my verdict is, if you own him, keep him because you probably will not find enough value in trade. I bet by the end of the year, assuming he finishes the year, he has 14 wins with a 3.40 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, which is extremely valuable.

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